What exactly is the probability of a rate hike in October? I looked at three data sources and found a huge discrepancy
Before Warsh's speech, I spent an hour comparing how different data sources priced the probability of a rate hike in October, and found the differences were unbelievably large.
CME FedWatch shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October jumped from around 21% before the CPI release to 43.7%, while the probability of rates remaining unchanged fell from 78.3% to 56.3%. Another source shows that the market sees the probability of a rate hike this month as close to

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My favorite coffees are from Thailand’s First Officer Coffee Roasters and Graph, and whenever I go to Chiang Mai, I always make sure to leave room in my suitcase for two bags of coffee beans
The coffee I usually drink☕️ generally comes from Colombia, Costa Rica, or Ethiopia. These regions are very established. You can’t say their coffee is bad, but the flavor is simply the kind you can expect.
Many of the beans sold in Chiang Mai come from Chiang Rai. You can sense their aroma before even taking a sip: fresh, delicate, with a hint of mountain fruitiness. They have layers without being overpowe

USMemoryStocksExtendLosses #ShareWeekly
Memory chip stocks are in a sharp drawdown, and the selloff has now stretched across several sessions. Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC) and Seagate (STX) have all been sliding, but the damage is not evenly spread. Micron has fallen roughly 14% over the five sessions through October 14, even though it is still up about 97% over six months and about 191% year to date. That gap between recent weakness and the long-term run is the core of the debate right now. Below I walk through what is driving the move, where the key levels sit, and how

In the AI era for everyone, foreigners use AI to write code.
We use it to make short dramas 🤣

#BitcoinTops$82K #ShareWeekly
Bitcoin has spent the past week caught between two forces: a stubborn inflation picture and a Federal Reserve that is not yet ready to say it is finished. The latest data has pushed BTC back toward the lower part of its recent range, and the reaction to the inflation reports and Kevin Warsh's comments at the IMF meeting in Bangkok tells us a lot about where the market's mind is right now. My view is that this is not a market that has broken down, but it is a market that is asking for confirmation before it commits to the next big move. Let me explain why I think

$BTC is trading within a parallel channel 📊
Price action remains range-bound within the channel. The next decisive move will depend on a breakout or breakdown. Until then, patience is key. Let the chart speak! 🎯

Look at what I said early this morning, guys: the rebound to around 19 had little liquidity, and with the bearish CPI news and delayed weekend rebalancing, I felt a dump was coming, so I closed my long immediately. Very satisfied with that move 🤣 But I didn’t open any positions afterward; you have to stay flat when you go to sleep 😂

Warsh’s remarks are over; for the next two weeks, I’m watching only these three things
Warsh’s IMF fireside chat is over. He said nothing, and nothing changed in the market. BTC is still around 80,800, GT is still around 11.1, and my positions are still 45%BTC, 15%GT, and 40% cash.
For the next two weeks, I’ll focus only on three things.
First, the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. This is the most important one. Market pricing for an October rate hike is highly divided, ranging from 27% to 44%. If the Fed holds rates steady but issues a hawkish statement, BTC may fall first and then stabilize. If i

**$FLYBRAIN /USDT Perp – "Capitulation Drop – Short"**
Trading Plan Short $FLYBRAIN
Entry: 0.0002850
SL: 0.0002873
TP1: 0.0002804
TP2: 0.0002769
FLYBRAIN is down -8.71% after a sharp rejection from the 0.0003219 high. MACD is negative; targeting the 0.0002804 low.
#ShareWeekly

🚨 ₿ BITCOIN AT A CRITICAL LEVEL! 🔥 | BUYERS VS SELLERS 🐂🐻
The crypto market is at a crucial turning point! 📊⚡
Bitcoin traders are watching key support and resistance levels closely. Will buyers step in and push BTC higher, or will sellers take control and trigger another correction? 👀
🟢 🐂 BULLISH SCENARIO
If buyers defend support and BTC breaks above resistance with strong volume, a recovery could gain momentum. 📈
🔴 🐻 BEARISH SCENARIO
If support breaks and selling pressure increases, BTC could face another downside move. 📉
🎯 HOT TRADER'S MARKET WATCH
Watch price action, trading vo

Good morning, recap
Stay long OP and short Nvidia
Yesterday I asked Doubao, and it said shorting Nvidia has an edge, with a target price of 198-200. Let's see how Doubao's analysis plays out next week
Stick with it

$SAND SAND is one of the strongest-performing coins. It is expected to continue rising. Long strategy.
Entry: $0.063 - $0.065Take profit: $0.07 - $0.08 - $0.9 - $0.1Stop loss: $0.0575

Market outlook ahead
Based on the current market structure, there are 2 possible scenarios
1. Rebound from 79700 to 85000-87000, then resume the decline. If this pattern plays out, Bitcoin may not fall very far; after dropping to between 80000-77000, it could start a new rally, targeting 93000-97000
2. Drop directly, break below 79700, and begin a deeper correction of the rally since 57000 while looking for a new low.
In this scenario, Bitcoin’s decline would be much larger
Downside targets for scenario 2: 75000, 70000, 64000; below 57000 in an extreme move
These are my personal views, for ref

**$ZK /USDT Perp – "Extended Downtrend – Short"**
Trading Plan Short $ZK
Entry: 0.01500
SL: 0.01527
TP1: 0.01474
TP2: 0.01463
ZK is down -9.07% and in a downtrend from the 0.01654 high. MACD is negative; targeting the 0.01474 low.