Kalshi Probability Falls to 25%: Where Is the Market’s Expectation Gap?
Today I want to talk about prediction market data, because I think the amount of information it contains is even greater than the news itself.
On Kalshi, the probability that the CLARITY Act will become law in 2026 had fallen to 25% by September 13, compared with 82% in February this year. From 82% to 25%, that is a drop of nearly 60%. What does this change mean? It means the market’s expectations for this event have fundamentally shifted.
But there is a very interesting detail here: another Kalshi market shows a 94% proba

NVDA+0.38%

十一an hour ago

【$SOL Signal】Short + 4H bearish expansion, 1H weak rebound under pressure
$SOL 1H RSI 32.87, order book depth imbalance -12.73%, with thin bids below 99.24. 4H MACD negative histogram expanding, with EMA20/50 overhead. 1H MACD negative histogram contracting, price hugging the lower Bollinger Band at 98.8063. Order book bid/ask ratio 0.77, OI stable, funding rate -0.0039%. Risk/reward ratio 1.50, short position near the range, do not hold through the stop loss at 100.2324.
🎯Direction: Short
⚡Entry/limit order: 98.9423 - 99.2400
🛑Stop loss: 100.2324
🚀Target 1: 97.7514
🚀Target 2: 97.0071
🛡️T

SOL-3.15%

BlockchainTuogean hour ago

$AVAAI Did you catch this 15% knife?
Just took a look at the chart—$AVAAI current price is 0.0099, down 15.72% outright over the past 24 hours, with 29.9M in trading volume, which is still fairly active. But the key point is this—the Fear and Greed Index is now at 23, firmly in the extreme fear zone; the funding rate has already turned negative at -0.037%. Taken together, these two signals are clear: longs are cutting losses and exiting, while shorts are starting to pay to short.
Looking through the historical data, the last time the funding rate fell this negative was in the middle of last mo

AVAAI-16.12%

EdenOfTheEast an hour ago

Time filtering is very useful. Once midnight hits, robin starts making a fuss.
Although ai is a farmer, you're better than me. I acknowledge you now.

asiftahsin4 hours ago

U.S. Stocks Slide, but Crypto-Related Shares Buck the Trend! Is capital front-running the next move,

LIVE2,291

StarsAndMoon 19 minutes ago

Sincerely thank you, bro. You’ve never deceived or taken advantage of me. I was deceived and taken advantage of by some people and lost a small amount of money, but thankfully it taught me a lesson and helped me see people’s true colors. It’s enough to stay away from them. Summer insects cannot discuss ice.#晒出我的持仓收益

CryptoVisionan hour ago

#EthereumAndBaseSplitOnAccountAbstraction Ethereum and Base Split on Account Abstraction: What Actually Happened and Why It Matters
Last week one of the quietest but most consequential breaks in the Ethereum ecosystem quietly finalized. Ethereum and Base, the two layers most closely bound together in crypto, walked away from a months-long effort to unify their native account abstraction standards. Ethlabs founder and ZeroDev creator Derek Chiang confirmed the reconciliation talks collapsed, leaving Ethereum to push its EIP-8141 Frame Transactions design toward the upcoming Hegotá hard fork, wh

ETH-3.87%

OP-3.43%

AERO-6.58%

MamonTrader2 hours ago

#EthereumAndBaseSplitOnAccountAbstraction 🚨🔥 ETHEREUM VS BASE: THE ACCOUNT ABSTRACTION SPLIT COULD REDEFINE THE NEXT ERA OF ONCHAIN UX
TOP 4 REASONS THIS BATTLE MATTERS MORE THAN ANOTHER LAYER-2 HEADLINE
The biggest competition in crypto may no longer be:
Ethereum vs Solana.
It may not even be:
Layer 1 vs Layer 2.
The more important battle could be happening somewhere much deeper:
WHO CONTROLS THE NEXT GENERATION OF ONCHAIN USER EXPERIENCE?
That is why the growing distinction between Ethereum and Base around account abstraction deserves serious attention.
Because account abstraction is not m

Cryptoprofe 2 hours ago

The Clarity Act is NOT going to be approved today.
In today’s vote, the Senate will decide whether this bill continues moving forward or remains stalled.
If it advances, there are still more steps before it is officially approved. Everything indicates it will be next year.

GateUser-98d55588 an hour agoBullish

#Brent UKOIL is moving strongly toward 112.5++. It's structure is stronger than clusdt/usoil.

MarkEth24 minutes ago

After rejection it was being observed that which i told $BTC tik down to $68k first.
‎
‎Now fear of not passing clarity Act is also increasing.
‎
‎Be resilient

BTC-2.60%

YufengA 19 minutes ago

Today’s multi-asset strategies all came to fruition;
Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and SNDK all matched expectations.
Our early assessment that the rebound was merely a correction, not a reversal, and the plan to test shorts at resistance levels all
played out, with Bitcoin offering 4000 points of room, Ethereum 226 points, gold 52 points, and SanDisk 62 points of room.
Understand market structure, manage risk well, and position with the trend; results will naturally follow. $BTC $ETH

BTC-2.61%

ETH-3.88%

CryptoVisionan hour ago

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CryptoSat2 hours agoBearish

$RAYSOL is correcting right now, looks like it might drop more 🔻
MA99 (1.13) will probably get tested. If it bounces here, it could be a good time to take positions, just like we predicted before.
##FedAnnounceRateDecisionSoon

CryptoSat2026-09-09 07:41:43

$RAY Tetra Move Loading 😉
The charts are very aggressive right now. Over the past 20 days, the RSI has been trading in the overbought zone, and consolidation in the 74–85 range pushed the price above 1. Now we're trading at 1.4...
This is a crazy situation for the next leg up; this level decides everything... We had support at 1.24, and the next is 1.1. The trend is bullish as long as it holds 1.05. The main thing is that the price is approaching resistance at 1.5 / 1.6. If it rejects here, it may push below 1.3. A possible consolidation could happen between 1.1 and 1.3 for the next leg up.
In case buyers are very strong at this moment and break 1.6, we may see $2 soon, even on this day itself...
My trading plan is simple:
Aggressive entry with a small fund at 1.35–1.4
Safe entry at 1.25–1.1
SL at 1.040
Targets: 1.45, 1.52, 1.6, 1.75, 2, 3 & 4
Yeah, $4 is my final target 😉
That's why I called it a Tetra move 😁
Let's see what happens. Remember, this is a swing trade, so it will take days to weeks to complete all targets or hit the SL.

YaoYaoIsVeryNice.an hour ago

See you tomorrow; wrapping up for today.
Tomorrow, trade 10u of Yaoyao along with this.
Those who can may follow with a smaller position.
I may not open any trades on Thursday or Friday because there is too much news. If there is an exceptionally good setup, I may consider taking a tiny position.🤏

Leo_Kai38 minutes ago

is btc rebound again ?

LIVE1,188

RonyZ25 minutes ago

US equities are flashing green, and the strength is spreading. 🟢🇺🇸
Semiconductors are leading in several areas, financials are participating, industrials are firm, and energy and healthcare are also holding higher.
$QCOM +3.34%
$DELL +3.01%
$INTC +2.55%
$AMD +2.24%
$MU +1.75%
$NVDA +1.31%
The bigger signal is participation.
A market becomes much harder to fade when strength starts appearing across sectors instead of being carried by one or two mega-caps.
Green tape. Broad participation. Bulls have something to work with. 📈🔥
#ShareWeekly #CLARITYActKeyVoteAhead #stocks

QCOM+4.91%

DELL+2.66%

INTC+0.12%

AMD+1.26%

NVDA+0.38%

East18 an hour ago

People who still think Slow Fish is slow are truly low-cognition individuals. #slowfish

134Ceros 2 hours agoBullish

Everyone's sleeping on LTC but the 4h says otherwise.

$LTC /USDT - LONG

Trade Plan:
Entry: 51.63 – 51.83
SL: 50.45
TP1: 52.69
TP2: 53.34
TP3: 54.30

Why this setup?
Why now? The daily trend is still range-bound, which means LTC has been coiling energy rather than trending hard. The 15m RSI at 56.32 shows mild bullish momentum without being overextended, giving room to run. The 1h ATR of 0.411675 tells us recent volatility is modest, so a steady grind toward the entry zone around 51.63 to 51.83 is realistic. From there, TP1 at 52.69 and TP2 at 53.34 offer defined upside, but 52.95 is where

LTC-3.89%

CryptoVisionan hour ago

Gate futures newly listed: $CATE
🔹 Trading pair: $CATE / $USDT
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Doge has dominated Meme for years, and cats are finally taking over 🐱👑
Trade $CATE: https://www.gate.com/zh/futures/USDT/CATE_USDT
More details: https://www.gate.com/zh/announcements/article/101730

CATE-7.41%

DOGE-3.30%

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