In a recession, the deficit reaches 12% of GDP and annual interest payments hit 3 trillion, compressing the fiscal margin for error
The underlying logic of macro risk pricing is undergoing a profound shift, with market focus moving from a simple tug-of-war over growth expectations to a dual examination of debt sustainability and technological compliance. As high interest rates coincide with slowing economic growth, fiscal room for error has been sharply compressed, and any quantitative analysis of a recession scenario could easily trigger a drastic repricing of assets. Meanwhile, the debate wi