#ZEC持续拉升突破1500美元 ZEC briefly breaks above $1,500—how much further can the privacy sector rally?
I. Market snapshot: after a new high, first see whether the “pullback” is healthy
On the morning of September 18, ZEC briefly broke above $1,500, hitting a new high for this market cycle, before quickly retreating; its 24-hour gain was approximately +8%~+10%. Its current market cap is approximately $22.6 billion (based on CoinGecko data from September 17), keeping it firmly within the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market cap;
Its all-time high was $3,191.93 in October 2016, and its current price remains at an approximately 55% discount to that historical high.
The wording “briefly breaks above” is worth noting: the retreat after the surge indicates the presence of profit-taking and disagreement overhead, meaning the market has entered a phase of “high-level, high-volume positioning battles,” rather than accelerating unidirectionally.
II. Market review: a curve from the periphery to the center
ZEC has risen from approximately $42 (September 2025) to $1,500+ today, gaining over 2500% in one year; its market-cap ranking has climbed from 82nd globally to 10th, surpassing DOGE.
III. Five drivers behind the rally
1. The opening of regulated funding channels (the core driver): Grayscale’s Zcash spot ETF (ZCSH) listed on NYSE Arca on August 25, becoming the first spot ETF for a privacy coin in the US stock market. In less than two weeks after listing, it recorded net inflows of over $179 million and reached nearly $700 million in assets under management, holding over 550,000 ZEC; DCG International Investment also injected $100 million. This means ordinary investors can hold ZEC directly through US stock accounts without registering with an exchange or self-custodying private keys.
2. Short-seller liquidation amplified the gains: on September 4, the day ZEC broke above $1,000, approximately $34.5 million worth of ZEC short positions were liquidated, with the short squeeze pushing the price higher.
3. Clear institutional endorsement: in May, Multicoin Capital co-founder publicly stated that he had been building a ZEC position since February, calling it “the cleanest asset for expressing this thesis in the public markets”; ZEC rose over 30% that day.
4. Two-way supply-demand squeeze: the November 2024 halving cut block rewards in half; the share of ZEC in shielded pools (privacy addresses) has risen from approximately 8% at the beginning of 2024 to around 28%–30% currently, with the circulating supply continuing to contract.
5. Macro and narrative convergence: concerns over the deterioration of fiscal credibility and the growing ability of AI to conduct financial surveillance, combined with the “free money/ censorship-resistant asset” narrative, have brought privacy coins back into the mainstream spotlight from the sector’s periphery.
IV. Sector overview: this is not ZEC’s rally alone
However, ZEC accounts for 62% of the sector’s market cap. The so-called “privacy sector rally” is essentially an index effect driven by ZEC. To understand the sector, one must focus even more on ZEC itself.
V. How much further can it go: bull-bear comparison and three indicators to watch
Logic supporting continued momentum:
The regulated channel has only just opened; if ETF inflows continue, they represent “incremental capital” rather than a battle over existing liquidity;
The share of shielded pools is rising alongside the price (approximately 30%), indicating genuine on-chain demand providing support rather than pure speculation;
Market capital is rotating from meme/low-float assets toward assets with real use cases.
Risks that could end the rally:
Regulatory overhang: the EU Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) takes effect in July 2027 and prohibits crypto service providers from offering any services involving anonymity-enhanced assets; ZEC’s optional privacy mode is also covered—this is the biggest policy variable over the medium term;
High leverage amplifies moves in both directions: open interest in ZEC futures has reached $1.78 billion; once the direction reverses, the decline could be equally sharp;
Historical lesson: privacy coins also surged and then gave back most of their gains in 2025; ZEC’s current social-media attention has fallen approximately 6% from its peak;
Diverging views: the market is already debating “Wall Street speculation vs. a better Bitcoin,” and controversy remains over whether Grayscale’s positioning matches genuine on-chain demand.
Conclusion—without predicting price levels, watch three signals:
1. Whether ZCSH net inflows continue: this is the truth about capital flows; if outflows persist, the probability of a market top rises sharply;
2. Whether the share of shielded pools continues to rise: this is a fundamental indicator; if the price rises while shielded pools stagnate, this cycle is primarily sentiment-driven;
3. The regulatory calendar: progress on the EU AMLR legislation and changes in exchanges’ stances toward privacy coins.
The trend will be difficult to call over before all three signals weaken, but the current price has already fully priced in “ETF expectations + short-squeeze momentum.” The risks and opportunities of chasing the rally coexist, so decisions should be based on signals rather than price levels.
$ZEC
