#美联储9月纪要偏鹰 #每周来晒 The Fed’s September Minutes Send an Important Signal: “Insurance Rate Hikes” Are Making a Comeback!
The key change revealed in the Fed’s September meeting minutes is not merely a “more hawkish” stance, but the return of risk-management thinking to policymaking. Barclays believes the minutes show that the Fed is beginning to place greater emphasis on proactively guarding against inflation risks. Some officials believed further tightening remained necessary under the baseline scenario, while others viewed additional rate hikes as “insurance” against the risk of stronger-than-expected demand or renewed supply-side shocks. At the September meeting, the Fed raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, with all participants supporting the decision; most officials believed that one more rate hike before year-end “could be appropriate.” The Committee also emphasized that subsequent policy would depend on economic data and the balance of risks. Goldman Sachs believes the minutes show a strong consensus among officials in favor of further tightening, but that “insurance rate hikes” do not mean future action has been determined, with whether to continue raising rates ultimately depending on inflation and economic data. The two institutions have broadly similar views on the near-term path: no move in October and one more rate hike in December. Their main difference is that Goldman Sachs believes the FOMC may ultimately conclude that no further tightening is necessary as the data change, while Barclays expects rates to remain unchanged for most of 2027 after a December hike.
I “Insurance Rate Hikes” Return: Risk Management Becomes the Policy Logic Again
The minutes show that many participants supported a higher policy-rate path, mainly for risk-management reasons. If demand remains stronger than expected or the supply side is hit by another shock, raising rates in advance could reduce the risk of inflation remaining above target for an extended period. However, some officials believed that further rate hikes were necessary under their baseline scenario, rather than merely serving to guard against potential risks. This distinction determines the flexibility of subsequent policy: if rate hikes are primarily a risk-management measure, the Fed can stop tightening once inflation data improve and the balance of risks changes; if further hikes are necessary under the baseline forecast, it means rates still have room to rise. Barclays believes this is the exact opposite of the logic during the previous rate-cutting cycle. At that time, the Fed believed downside employment risks outweighed upside inflation risks, allowing it to cut rates preemptively; now the balance of risks has tilted back toward inflation, and policy is once again leaving room in advance for a potential inflation rebound.
II Hawkish Bias Clear, but December Still Depends on the Data.
The hawkish judgments in the minutes mainly stemmed from inflation. All participants believed inflation remained elevated and that progress in reducing it had been insufficient in recent months; nearly all officials saw inflation risks as tilted to the upside, with some believing those risks had increased further. At the same time, risks in the labor market were viewed as “broadly balanced” and were no longer considered a major obstacle to further policy tightening. Several officials also believed that the policy rate before the hike was “not restrictive or only mildly restrictive,” while several others raised their estimates of the neutral rate. However, the minutes repeatedly emphasized that policy would “depend on the incoming data.” Goldman Sachs expects another 25-basis-point hike in December, but believes that as more data are released, the Fed will ultimately “likely conclude that further tightening is unnecessary.”
III AI Investment Becomes a New Inflation Variable
Another notable change in these minutes is that AI investment was explicitly identified as a potential source of inflation for the first time. Several officials pointed out that as the effects of AI infrastructure construction gradually emerge and the impact of tariffs gradually fades, core goods inflation could remain elevated; some officials warned that the AI construction boom could push aggregate demand above aggregate supply, creating new inflationary pressure. At the same time, some of the pressure on PCE inflation may simply reflect temporary distortions caused by statistical methodology. A few participants noted that software and asset-management fees had made significant contributions to recent PCE data, and that this impact was expected to fade as the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) adjusted its statistical methods. According to a Barclays report, Fed staff expected at the September meeting that the BEA revision would lower year-over-year PCE and core PCE growth by approximately 0.2 percentage points, but the actual revision was about twice as large as expected, bringing year-over-year core PCE growth down to 3.0%, with the three-month annualized rate close to 2%. This means that the inflation backdrop at the September meeting was in fact more severe than indicated by the latest data: AI investment could generate genuine demand-driven inflationary pressure, while software and asset-management fees included a degree of statistical distortion. The revision to the latter weakened part of the basis for supporting further rate hikes at the time.
IV Economic Outlook Improves, Leaving Room for a Policy Shift
Fed staff raised their inflation forecasts for 2026 through 2028, expecting the effects of tariffs, geopolitics, and AI-related factors to gradually fade, with inflation eventually returning to the 2% target in 2029, though risks remained tilted to the upside. At the same time, the economic and employment outlook improved. Staff expected real GDP to rebound in the second half of this year and remain above potential growth through 2028; the unemployment rate was expected to remain below its long-run level through 2029. Goldman Sachs noted that some officials attributed the rise in long-term U.S. Treasury yields to a stronger economy, increased expectations of AI-related borrowing, and geopolitical factors, while most officials believed overall financial conditions remained supportive of economic growth. Barclays maintained its baseline expectation of a 25-basis-point hike in December, but believed that the inflation revisions, recent weakness in economic data, and a slowdown in labor supply could ultimately lead the Fed to abandon further rate hikes. Therefore, the current policy path is becoming clearer: the Fed is once again adopting a risk-management approach to rate hikes, but whether this “insurance” is actually needed still depends on subsequent data. If inflation continues to cool, the need for a December hike will diminish; if AI investment drives continued demand expansion and inflation comes under renewed pressure, the case for further tightening will strengthen.
