#Inflation breadth is worsening: share of CPI components rising faster than 2% m/m annualized (blue) jumped to 76.3%; share rising faster than 3% (orange) moved up to 54.5%; share above 5y average (white) rose to 32.2%

Why can a backtest perform very well while live trading may incur persistent losses?

A trading strategy may perform exceptionally well on historical data, with a high win rate, a beautiful return curve, and a very small maximum drawdown.

But once deployed in real markets, the results can be completely different: execution prices are unfavorable, trading costs keep rising, returns gradually shrink, and losses may even become persistent.

Where exactly does the problem lie?

Often, the problem is not that backtesting has no value, but that we treat backtest results as a guarantee of live perfo

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The daytime-session high has moved lower again, so our strategy is to short the rebound! We likewise enter trades on a rebound! The short position we opened in tandem this afternoon! Entered at 4051, 14 points, banked $2,886! Taking profit
$XAU $BTC #美国10月CPI全面超预期 #Gate全球合规版图扩展 #Polymarket年化收入突破18亿美元 #美伊谈判出现新进展

Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.81 trillion, took in $302,381,380 of net inflows to its tokenized funds in the past 7 days, the most of any asset manager.
That is more than $43.1M a day, led by BENJI, its money market fund that runs mainly on Stellar.
@FTDA_US @StellarOrg

#BZ Deeply oversold on the daily chart—how can you not seize the opportunity🤠
Everyday essentials—and petroleum is oil too
Open two positions, hold them for about ten days, and you can easily come away with a profit
No problem at all

Why might a trading strategy’s returns come from just a handful of trades?

A strategy has high cumulative returns and a decent win rate.

But if you remove its most profitable trades and the strategy goes from profitable to unprofitable, would you still consider it to have a stable trading edge?

This question is more worth examining than simply looking at the rate of return.

I. First, look at where the returns actually come from

Suppose a strategy completes 100 trades and ends up with a net profit of $1,000.

On the surface, the strategy is making money.

But a closer breakdown reveals:

*

#PolymarketAnnualizedRevenueTops1.8B
POLYMARKET'S ANNUALIZED REVENUE SURPASSES $1.8 BILLION: ARE PREDICTION MARKETS ENTERING A NEW ERA OF GROWTH?
Polymarket is attracting major attention as the prediction market industry continues to expand. Its reported annualized revenue surpassing $1.8 billion highlights the growing interest in platforms where users trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
Prediction markets are becoming an increasingly important part of the digital financial ecosystem. Users can explore market expectations around politics, economics, cryptocurrency, sports, and global

#USAICStocksFallBroadly
US AI STOCKS FALL BROADLY: TECHNOLOGY SELLOFF RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT AI VALUATIONS AND MARKET CONFIDENCE
The artificial intelligence sector is facing renewed selling pressure as major US AI-related stocks move lower. The broader decline is putting technology investors on alert and raising questions about whether the market's powerful AI rally is entering a period of correction.
AI companies have attracted enormous investor interest because of their potential to transform industries, improve productivity, and generate new business opportunities. However, expectations ha

Four sessions running, more money has left US spot $BTC funds than came in. On Nov 10, IBIT alone saw -$78.2M of the group's -$95.0M, and the last five sessions come to -$1.06B.

How can you tell whether a trading strategy truly has an edge, rather than simply catching a favorable market spell?

If a trading strategy has been consistently profitable over the past few months, does that mean it has a genuine edge?

Not necessarily.

It may indeed have found a market pattern, or it may simply have been suited to market conditions during a particular period; it may have real profit-generating ability, or its backtest parameters may simply have been overfit to historical data.

The real challenge is not finding a beautiful return curve, but determining whether the edge behi

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$ZEC
The outlook is deteriorating, with bulls failing to defend the crucial $1,060 support level and bears now firmly in control.
Attention now turns to the $871–$873 region, which represents the next major higher-timeframe support zone.

On Monday, I said AMD would fall back to 480 this week.
It’s at 529 now.
I was wrong about that.
It closed at 449 last Friday.
It’s rallied nearly 18% since then.
Nvidia lost $470 billion in market cap over two days,
hit by a CEO controversy and a hot CPI print.
CoreWeave’s earnings report didn’t come out until after the close yesterday.
It raised its full-year revenue guidance from $12.9 billion to $13.3 billion.
AMD and Broadcom are the ones getting the money.
The 10-year yield is hovering near 5%, and yesterday’s CPI was hot.
The market is now pricing in a rate hike next month.
If SMH can’t

Why do some trading strategies perform well in range-bound markets, but start losing consecutively as soon as the trend reverses?

Have you ever experienced this?

A strategy performed well over the past few months. Its backtest curve was smooth, and its win rate looked impressive.

But one day, the market starts to change.

Buy signals that used to work begin failing one after another, stop-losses become more frequent, and the account’s drawdown keeps growing.

You start questioning the indicators, adjusting parameters, and even considering replacing the strategy entirely.

But there is one p

Kira's portfolio update: Over the past 3 months, we've seen a slight dip to $1.59, down 0.34%, but our annualized growth is a healthy +11.72%! 🚀 Stay tuned for more insights. #Crypto #Trading #Portfolio
Ready to start your journey?

#SP500PostsBiggestGainIn7Months
US Stock Market Rebound: Is Wall Street Preparing for Another AI Rally or Facing a Deeper Technology Sector Correction?

The US stock market is sending investors mixed signals. After experiencing significant selling pressure across technology and semiconductor shares, Wall Street staged a powerful recovery on November 9, bringing AI-related investments back into focus. However, the optimism faced another test when hotter-than-expected US inflation data triggered renewed selling on November 10.

This sudden shift highlights an important reality: investors still