Opinion: Bitcoin records its first decline one year after the halving, potentially breaking the "four-year cycle"

On January 1, Bitcoin closed the year lower than at the beginning of 2025, marking the first time in history that a yearly decline has been recorded in the year following a halving. This has sparked intense discussions in the market about whether the “Bitcoin four-year cycle” has come to an end. Although the latest halving occurred in April 2024, BTC previously hit a record high of $126,000 on October 6, but then experienced a significant pullback, currently down over 30% from the peak, with the year’s performance weakening. Analysts point out that after the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin reached new highs in the following year, but this pattern has not continued in this cycle. Vivek Sen, founder of Bitgrow Lab, straightforwardly states that Bitcoin’s decline in the year following a halving means the “four-year cycle is officially dead.” Investor Armando Pantoja believes that the addition of ETFs, institutional funds, and corporate balance sheets has shifted Bitcoin away from retail sentiment dominance, making it more influenced by macro factors such as liquidity, interest rates, regulation, and geopolitical issues. However, there are differing opinions. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, says that the four-year cycle still exists but is no longer driven solely by “programmatic halving,” instead unfolding in a new form. Divergences in the market’s view of Bitcoin’s long-term cycle structure continue to widen.