Gold has reached a historical high after inflation adjustment. Can Bitcoin follow suit and stage a big rally?

In September, the spot gold price broke through its inflation-adjusted historical high from 45 years ago, setting a new record. Analysts pointed out that if Bitcoin can rise in sync with gold, it may be gearing up for a significant price breakthrough. This trend reflects that, with the influx of institutional funds, investors are increasingly following the performance of these two asset classes in addressing macroeconomic uncertainties.

The price of gold has reached a historic new high

The spot gold price rose more than 8% in September, reaching a high of $3,683.14 per ounce, surpassing its historical peak of $850 (equivalent to about $3,539.58 when adjusted for inflation) set on January 21, 1980. This marks a new record for gold prices when adjusted for inflation. According to the latest data, the gold price is currently trading at around $3,630 per ounce, maintaining its historical high.

Bitcoin closely follows, correlation draws attention

During the same period, the price of Bitcoin also rose by over 6%, climbing from around 107,634 USD to 114,408 USD. According to the latest market data, Bitcoin is currently priced at approximately 115,224 USD, continuing to rise. Although it is still below last month's peak of over 124,000 USD, its synchronous movement with gold has attracted close attention from analysts.

Institutional Perspective: Analysts at Singapore-based digital asset trading firm QCP Capital stated that they are observing the synchronous movement of gold and Bitcoin to formulate their predictions for the fourth quarter.

Key Indicator: Gold-Bitcoin Ratio

One key indicator that analysts are focusing on is the gold-Bitcoin ratio, which measures the performance of gold relative to Bitcoin.

Historical reference: They pointed out that this ratio is close to the level of 0.041, which historically coincided with periods when gold was rising and Bitcoin was stable.

Current data: At present, based on the latest price data, this ratio is approximately 0.0316. This means that the value of Bitcoin is still relatively higher than that of gold. To reach the level of 0.041, the price of Bitcoin needs to drop or the price of gold needs to rise significantly.

Broader Market Perspective: Cross-Asset Ratio Analysis

In addition to the gold-Bitcoin ratio, analysts are also following other cross-asset ratios to more comprehensively assess market sentiment and capital rotation:

Gold - S&P 500 Ratio: This is seen as a barometer of "risk-off" and "risk-on" sentiment in the traditional asset markets.

Bitcoin-Ethereum Ratio: This ratio is used to measure the internal fund rotation of digital assets, with the latest value being approximately 25.6, indicating that while the price of Bitcoin is steadily rising, the market is also following the relative performance of Ethereum.

Analysts indicate that these ratios provide important context that helps to understand how risks are priced in both traditional and digital markets.

Conclusion

Gold has reached a historical high this time, and the close correlation with Bitcoin's price provides a crucial macro backdrop for the market. The synergy between this traditional safe-haven asset and digital store of value may indicate a broader shift in investor confidence. If Bitcoin can successfully maintain this momentum and break through key resistance levels, then the upcoming fourth quarter might see a major market movement.