LAST MINUTE: FED Reveals the Much-Awaited Interest Rate Decision! Here is Bitcoin's Initial Reaction

The FED kept interest rates unchanged as expected

The FED has continued to keep the policy interest rates unchanged since December 2024. Behind this decision are factors such as the global uncertainty environment, slowing economic growth, and volatile inflation trends.

The FED warned of higher unemployment and inflation risks, citing increasing uncertainty regarding the economic outlook.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference today at 21:30 Turkey time following a two-day monetary policy meeting.

At the meeting in March 2025, the Fed kept the policy rate steady in the range of 4.25 – 4.50 percent and stated that it anticipated a two-quarter point rate cut by the end of the year. Powell had said at that meeting that they were not inclined to rush into a rate cut despite geopolitical risks. In the FOMC statement, it was said, "If risks emerge that could hinder the achievement of the targets, the stance of monetary policy will be adjusted as necessary."

However, President Donald Trump repeatedly urged Powell to cut interest rates in order to prevent a slowdown in the economy. Indeed, in the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.3% year-on-year due to the effects of trade wars. On the other hand, the employment data for April is positive: 177,000 new jobs were created in the US. In March, the core PCE inflation data remained unchanged; this rate had increased by 0.4% in February.

Uncertainty continues regarding how many interest rate cuts will be made throughout the year. According to Kalshi data, investors now expect 3 interest rate cuts for 2025, a figure that was previously forecasted to be 4.

Wall Street expectations are as follows:

• Goldman Sachs: 3 cuts (July, September, November)
• Morgan Stanley: 0 discount
• Bank of America: 4 discount
• Citigroup: 5 discount
• JPMorgan & Barclays: 2 discounts
• Fed median estimate: 2 cuts