#股票交易分享挑战 US Stocks Weekly: Range-Bound Trading
🌍Macro Indicators
· U.S. stocks rose consecutively during the first two weeks of August, with the S&P 500 up 3.95% month-to-date, breaking the seasonal pattern of usually consolidating or deleveraging in the first half of August.
· The exception stems from the sell-off that had already occurred in July: the technology sector underwent intense deleveraging and a deep decline, while upward revisions to corporate earnings expectations and the retreat of U.S. Treasury yields from their highs jointly drove the sharp recovery in early August.
· After both CPI and PPI came in soft and July nonfarm payroll growth cooled, Treasury yields fell, and money markets have fully priced out the possibility of a September rate hike.
· The 2-year yield has fallen faster than the long end: persistent fiscal deficits, increasing bond supply, including corporate bonds issued for AI infrastructure, and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy and White House policies ahead of the midterm elections have led traders to demand higher compensation for longer duration.
· The 10-year yield may therefore remain elevated, putting pressure on U.S. equity valuations and limiting the index’s upside.
💰Fund Flows
· The August rebound was led by institutional capital, with positions highly concentrated in leading names with the greatest earnings certainty; this was structural rotation rather than a broad-based rally.
· Compared with April through July, liquidity was extremely abundant at the time, and capital engaged in indiscriminate, beta-driven buying. Leading and mid-tier names surged in tandem, while leveraged funds deployed broadly.
· After the severe deleveraging in July, investors were badly weakened: retail investors suffered losses to their principal and had less deployable capital, while South Korean regulators tightened overseas high-leverage and derivatives channels. The AI supply chain objectively lost its previous most aggressive retail and leveraged drivers.
· Although the market has begun to add leverage again, risk appetite and the position structure have narrowed sharply, with market participants clearly more cautious and selective.
· The strong momentum in the first half of August relied to a considerable extent on buildup and front-running ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report.
📈Sector Performance
· The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index will likely face resistance in the 12400 to 12600 range in the short term and trade sideways at elevated levels.
· Before Nvidia’s earnings report on August 26, institutional capital appears unwilling to recklessly add leverage and forcefully break through this resistance zone.
· Sector sentiment has improved significantly since the August rebound. Investors are once again willing to pay for AI infrastructure and have also begun adding leverage again.
· However, compared with the broad-based, leverage-driven rally before July, the market since August has shown clear position divergence and rotational gains.
· The fundamental logic of AI infrastructure and commercial monetization has not been disproven; a consolidation pullback is not a reason to turn bearish on the core theme.
⭐Key Stocks
· Nvidia (NVDA) will release its earnings report on August 26, the biggest variable for the remainder of this month.
· The stock price began falling after each of the previous earnings reports, and the market fears a repeat of that pattern. This is the main source of selling pressure ahead of the report.
· If the stock continues rising one-way before the earnings report without pulling back early to digest fear, fully pricing in the positive expectations, it may face extremely strong profit-taking pressure afterward regardless of whether the earnings are good or bad.
📰Earnings Season
· Nvidia (NVDA)’s earnings report on August 26 is the endpoint of this round of pre-earnings buildup and a watershed moment for the direction.
· The risk window for the semiconductor sector’s second wave of deleveraging: as early as immediately after the earnings report and as late as around the September Labor Day holiday.
🎯Weekly Summary
· The index still has room to extend before the end of August. The 7900 to 7950 range above is a dense zone for Call sell orders, both attracting the index upward and serving as a ceiling; once the rubber band reaches this level, upward momentum will be largely exhausted.
· The 7650 to 7700 range below is an accumulation zone for put options, providing relatively strong downside support. The probability of breaking through 7900 and opening a one-way major uptrend, or falling below 7600 and triggering a sharp crash, is extremely low.
· Route one is to surge first and then pull back—buy the expectation, sell the fact: pre-earnings buildup and short-seller hesitation push the index toward 7900, funds front-run the move to lock in profits, and the index then pulls back after the earnings report.
· Route two is to pull back first and then rise: the market fears a repeat of the post-earnings decline, sells first to digest fear, and after positions are surrendered around 7700, funds use the earnings release to bottom-fish and drive the market higher again.
· The probabilities of the two paths are similar. In practice, do not bet on the path: near 7900, decisively reduce positions or add a trailing take-profit, and do not chase higher; near 7700 on a pullback, tactically trade for a rebound with a small position; treat all movement in between as noise.
· Strategically bullish on AI, tactically facing high volatility: keep core positions unchanged, lock in some profits at highs, accumulate in batches on golden dips, and concentrate on leading names with the highest certainty, while allocating correspondingly less to second- and third-tier names.$NVDA ‌.