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Gate Research Daily Report: BTC staged an intraday rally before reversing lower, ending the past 24 hours down 2.5%. ETH outperformed BTC on a relative basis, with the intraday low around 1,556 USDT serving as a key support level. DATA surged 32,000% as growing interest in AI and decentralized data infrastructure continued to attract capital, BASED gained 29.20% on the Hyperliquid financial application narrative, and WOJAK rose 26.50% amid a recovery in meme coin sentiment. Financial giants including Visa, Mastercard, and BlackRock are reportedly planning to jointly launch the OUSD stablecoin. Strategy's new capital allocation framework has sparked mixed market reactions, although Benchmark reiterated its Buy rating. Meanwhile, spot gold briefly fell below US$3,950/oz, prompting several investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, to lower their gold price forecasts.

The geopolitical risk premium in crude oil has largely unwound, but U.S. inflation data does not support a rapid Fed pivot toward easing. BTC remained under broad selling pressure before entering a low-level consolidation and modest recovery during the second half of the week, ending the week down approximately 6.73%. ETH declined more sharply than BTC last week, staging only a modest rebound from its weekly lows over the weekend and finishing the week down approximately 8.65%. On-chain capital flows continued to show structural divergence, with Hyperliquid leading net inflows at $243 million, while Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Polygon recorded a combined net outflow of around $858 million. Within the Solana ecosystem, PumpSwap reached $4.323 billion in trading volume over the past seven days, and its fee revenue surpassed pump.fun for the first time, indicating that value capture in the Meme ecosystem is shifting from token issuance toward secondary-market trading.

Gate Research Daily Report: BTC traded in a low-range consolidation during the day and still failed to reclaim the 60,000 USDT level. ETH slightly outperformed BTC intraday, though it remained in a broader low-level consolidation phase. TAC surged 159.90%, driven by the TON–EVM interoperability infrastructure narrative; RAVE gained 35.90% amid renewed market attention and stronger event momentum; UB climbed 34.40%, supported by the AI memory layer narrative. Hedge funds recorded their largest-ever weekly sell-off of U.S. information technology stocks; the Clarity Act entered a critical two-week window and could be submitted for a full Senate vote as early as late July; BlackRock plans to integrate USDe into its $25 trillion asset management platform.

On June 29, the crypto market remained in a weak consolidation phase, with BTC holding at lower levels after falling below $60,000, while ETH showed limited rebound momentum. GT continued to demonstrate relative defensive strength, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained at 12 (Extreme Fear). ACT, POWR, and SYN led the market, with capital continuing to rotate among AI, blockchain-based energy, and cross-chain infrastructure themes. On the industry front, Base's two network outages highlighted the importance of Layer 2 sequencer reliability, Tether Gold's integration into crypto lending marked the expansion of tokenized gold into on-chain collateralized finance, and the European Parliament continued advancing its assessment of regulatory frameworks for DeFi, staking, and NFTs. The industry's focus is increasingly shifting toward infrastructure resilience, RWA composability, and the evolution of regulatory frameworks.

Gate Research Daily Report: On June 29, the crypto market remained in a weak consolidation phase. BTC traded sideways at lower levels after falling below $60,000, while ETH consolidated within the $1,550–$1,590 range. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stood at 12 (Extreme Fear), indicating that market risk appetite has yet to show a meaningful recovery. Among the top-performing tokens, ACT (+47.05%), POWR (+28.34%), and SYN (+28.31%) ranked as the three best-performing assets on Gate with market capitalizations exceeding $10 million, representing the AI meme, blockchain-based energy, and cross-chain infrastructure sectors, respectively. On the industry front, Base's two network outages within two days underscored the importance of Layer 2 sequencer reliability and recovery mechanisms. Meanwhile, the integration of Tether Gold into crypto lending marked another step toward bringing tokenized gold into on-chain collateralized financing. In Europe, the European Parliament's Committee on Econo

Gate Research Daily Report: On June 26, BTC consolidated near 59,800 USDT while remaining below the key 60,000 mark, ETH stayed under pressure around 1,565 USDT, and GT traded sideways near 6.49 USDT. Despite broad market weakness, SUPERFORM, HEI, and G posted strong gains, while Circle and Nomura advanced USDC settlement plans in Japan, Strategy faced renewed investor trust concerns, and U.S. May PCE inflation rose to 4.1% year over year.

Gate Research Daily Report: On June 26, BTC consolidated near $59,800 while ETH remained under pressure around $1,565. SUPERFORM, HEI, and G outperformed despite broader market weakness. Circle and Nomura advanced USDC settlement plans in Japan, Strategy faced renewed investor trust concerns, and U.S. May PCE inflation rose to 4.1% year over year.

Gate Research Weekly Report: The cryptocurrency market remained in a consolidation phase this week, with the total crypto market capitalization falling to approximately USD 2.09 trillion. Major cryptocurrencies came under broad selling pressure, while overall market risk appetite showed little sign of recovery. Spot crypto ETFs continued to record net outflows, reflecting a cautious stance among institutional investors. Overall, while the market is likely to remain range-bound in the near term, sustained institutional participation, the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem, and ongoing infrastructure development continue to provide solid support for the industry's long-term growth.

Prediction markets transform World Cup-related events such as championship outcomes, qualification paths, and individual match lines into tradable probability assets, shifting sports participation from one-off outcome speculation toward continuous pricing, hedging, and arbitrage. With sports trading volume across major platforms surpassing $7 billion during the opening week of the World Cup, Kalshi and Polymarket have emerged as the primary liquidity hubs. Single-match markets drive high-frequency activity, while championship markets serve as vehicles for long-term narratives and social engagement. At the same time, AI models provide pre-match probability estimates based on historical performance, player form, and tournament variables, while prediction markets continuously incorporate news, sentiment, and capital flows through real-money trading to generate dynamic posterior probabilities. That said, challenges remain, including liquidity concentration, sentiment-driven premiums on pop

On June 25, the crypto market remained under pressure, with BTC falling below 61,000 USDT and ETH retesting recent lows as market sentiment stayed in the Extreme Fear zone. Approximately $10.6 billion in BTC quarterly options are set to expire on June 26, with demand for protective put options increasing as traders look ahead to potential market direction after settlement. GT showed relatively limited downside, highlighting its defensive characteristics during the broader market decline. Among the top gainers, O (+42.50%), AIC (+42.02%), and SLX (+35.51%) outperformed the market, with capital concentrating in on-chain trading infrastructure, AI applications, and Solana-based financial infrastructure. On the industry front, the Ethereum Foundation restructured its R&D team, Ground advanced the API integration of on-chain yield, and Cambrian launched its oracle network testnet, reflecting continued investment in core blockchain infrastructure.

This report presents a comprehensive study on the predictability of crypto market beta and the boundaries of hedging effectiveness. The existing literature shows that, compared with mature equity markets, the market beta of digital assets is significantly weaker in terms of stability, intertemporal predictability, and hedging performance. The reasons extend beyond estimation methodology, and are more fundamentally rooted in the limited representativeness of market indices, the high frequency of return jumps, the prominence of on-chain and narrative-driven risks, and the multi-source nature of underlying return drivers. Going forward, a more effective risk framework for digital assets should move beyond a single market beta and adopt a multifactor approach that integrates price dynamics, liquidity conditions, on-chain metrics, sentiment indicators, and macroeconomic variables.

The probability of a 25 bps Fed rate hike in July rose to 34.2%. BTC traded lower after opening higher during the day, while ETH saw a significantly larger decline than BTC. DEXE surged 29.17%, driven by a short-squeeze rally; POPCAT gained 20.93% on renewed momentum in the Solana Meme sector rotation; BR rose 17.74%, supported by capital inflows into the restaking sector. The U.S. AI sector experienced a “Black Tuesday,” with Micron and SanDisk both falling more than 13%, while crypto-related stocks also came under pressure. Total crypto liquidations reached $650 million over the past 24 hours, with long positions dominating liquidations as the market continued its deleveraging process. The probability of a Fed rate hike in July climbed to 34.2%, while the EU’s MiCA transition period concluded, marking a new stage in regulatory compliance.