What Is Expected Shortfall (ES)? Why Does It Capture Tail Risk That VaR Misses?

In the cryptocurrency market, risk is not only about how much an account might lose, but also how much those losses could grow during extreme market conditions. Value at Risk (VaR) can estimate a loss threshold, but it does not directly indicate the average loss beyond that threshold. This is where Expected Shortfall (ES) offers important value.

First, what is ES?

ES measures the average level of tail losses when losses exceed a specified VaR threshold. For example, at the same time horizon and 95% confidence le

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U.S. CPI set to ignite markets at 21:30 tonight! If inflation exceeds expectations again, a December rate hike may really be unavoidable?

At 21:30 tonight, global financial markets are about to face another stress test! The U.S. October CPI is about to be released, and investors have just one question on their minds: Has inflation actually come down?
If the data comes in above expectations again, bets on a December rate hike by the Fed are likely to heat up further. After all, inflation is like a disobedient child: its parents have told it several times to cool down, but it keeps running a fe

📢 Gate Live Live Preview Today | November 9

Have BTC and ETH found a bottom? Can we join the rebound, and which levels should we watch tonight?
AI stocks have taken a hit. Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which signals are worth watching?

Join Gate Live tonight to watch the market live with the host. If you have a different view, you can join the discussion on mic!
🔥 Watch now: https://www.gate.com/live

#NvidiaCEOUnderInvestigation #ShareWeeklyWriting

Introduction: A Major Development Shakes the Global AI Industry
Nvidia, one of the world's most influential technology companies, is facing an important corporate and reputational challenge following news that its board of directors has launched an independent investigation involving its founder and CEO, Jensen Huang.
The investigation follows media reports alleging that Huang may have been targeted by a foreign intelligence effort connected to a Chinese business executive. The issue has attracted international attention because Nvidia plays a

Up to 888 USDT in SKHYG https://www.gate.com/campaigns/6769?ref=VLARBF1YAG&ref_type=132

#晒出我的持仓收益 Live now, just started and already ended, hehe, this account will stream later

BTC, U.S. stocks, or gold—which will fare worst tonight? U.S. CPI exceeds expectations, and the three major assets may face a major test!

Tonight's U.S. CPI release could turn financial markets into a survival game for three major assets.
If inflation once again exceeds expectations, expectations for a Fed rate hike in December may continue to heat up. Once the dollar and Treasury yields start rising, BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold may all have to reassess their worth.
First, BTC. Bitcoin fears not bad news, but a sudden tightening of liquidity. As rate expectations rise, funds may retreat from h

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$PIEVERSE Keep shorting. Volume keeps rising at the highs, but the price can't break higher. The market makers are clearly pushing the price up while selling off, and a sharp drop could come at any moment. Keep shorting at the current price; stop-loss remains at 2.3

Claude is still way too frugal—so stingy.
Your Fable 5.2 launches with reset coupons, and all you give is a 😂 that's only usable with Fable

$XRP ‌Reason for entry: The price has returned to a demand area that was swept prior to the previous price surge. As long as the invalidation level remains untouched, the bullish scenario from the prior price surge stays valid.

Nov. 10 Intraday Strategy: U.S. Stocks Rebound, Crypto Doesn’t Follow; Wait for CPI, Try Long with a Small Position

Crude oil plunged 6.22% yesterday, with Brent crude falling to $92.2; all three major U.S. stock indexes rose more than 2%, and everything seemed peaceful, but crypto didn’t follow. ETH traded sideways around 2,125 overnight, moving just 5 points up or down—not even enough to cover the fees if you closed a position.

Why is this happening?

1. The balance between crypto bulls and bears is severely skewed. Over the past week, ETH has fallen nearly 400 points in total. “Going down

https://www.gate.com/activities/watch-to-earn/?now_period=27&refUid=11796723

#GateLive #Gate
#GateSquare
$BTC $GT $ETH $SOL $SOL

11.10 Qiqi on Gold Morning Brief: Under pressure at highs, gold pulls back slightly; short-term trading remains bullish and choppy!

Gold opened higher in the morning but came under pressure and weakened, retreating from a high of 4146.65 and now trading around 4131. After bulls stabilized and rebounded overnight, selling pressure overhead gradually emerged, and the market entered a mild pullback and consolidation phase in the short term.

The 5-minute indicators have weakened slightly, but the broader bullish structure remains intact. This is a pause during the uptrend, not a trend reversal f

【U.S. Market Snapshot | Tech Heavyweights Lead Declines; Nasdaq Bounce Still Needs Confirmation】
In the screenshot heatmap, NVDA is down about 9.26%, MU about 17.46%, and TSLA about 10.77%, with broad weakness across tech and semiconductors. A bounce in the indices does not mean market breadth has recovered.
Nasdaq CFD around 28406: First watch whether resistance can be reclaimed; don’t chase the first bullish candle off the lows.
SanDisk perpetual around 845: Bouncing after a sharp drop. Around 915 is the first resistance to watch for a recovery; watch 800 below.
SPCX perpetual around 127: Wa

The Nasdaq surged 2.7% in one day, while Bitcoin fell
U.S. stocks closed Monday: Nasdaq at 25253, up 2.74% on the day
BTC over the same period: 75882 at Friday's U.S. market close, 74868 at Monday's close, down 1.3%
The disconnect between stocks and crypto has reached this extent, which shows crypto money has yet to return
U.S. October CPI tonight at 21:30; 75000 is the only level I'm watching today