What Is Trading Expectancy? Why Can a High-Win-Rate Strategy Still Lose Money Over the Long Term?

In cryptocurrency trading, many people treat win rate as the primary measure of a strategy's quality, believing that a strategy that wins seven out of ten trades must be better than one that wins only four. But what truly determines a strategy's long-term performance is not just how many times it wins, but also the amount gained on each winning trade and lost on each losing trade. This is the significance of trading expectancy.

First, what is trading expectancy?

Trading expectancy is the averag

$DOT
LONG
ENTRY : 8585 - 8500
STOPLOSS AT 8450
Targets : 8800, 8960 , 9100
Invested fund only 2%
Leverage is 50x

How do you calculate a reasonable position size? Why should you set your stop-loss before deciding how much to buy?

In crypto trading, many people decide how much to buy first and only then consider where to place their stop-loss. This order can make it difficult to control position risk. A more reasonable approach is to first determine the maximum loss you are willing to take on a single trade, then calculate the position size based on the distance to your stop-loss.

First, set your risk budget. Suppose your account equity is 10,000 USDT and you plan to limit the risk on a single trade to 1

GM Everyone
Keep grinding, stay consistent, and trust the process.

Gud mornings chat <3
Finally going to gym, haven’t been there for a week, ops

🐋 WHALE WATCH : Classic market cycle mechanics at play
Back in September altcoin volume exploded to 4x BTC volume right as Bitcoin tapped its local top near $87K. Total euphoria.
Fast forward to today: @glassnode data confirms alt volume has cooled back to normal baseline levels.
Historical takeaways:
=> Overheated alt volume = local tops/structural exhaustion
=> Volume normalization = health check&consolidation phase
=> Quiet markets precede major directional moves
Are we prepping for the next leg up or another sweep lower ? Drop your take below

What Is a Transaction Cost Model? How Can Backtest Results Be Made More Realistic?

In cryptocurrency trading, some strategies deliver high returns in historical backtests but perform poorly once real capital is deployed. The problem may not lie in the strategy’s signals themselves, but in the backtest’s failure to adequately account for real-world trading costs. A transaction cost model incorporates these real-world factors to assess a strategy’s actual performance after costs.

First, what is a transaction cost model?

It is used to estimate the various costs incurred when executing a strate

$ARIA is pushing higher and approaching a key resistance area. 🚀
Price has been building a strong recovery structure, printing higher lows and gradually climbing along the ascending trendline.
The previous resistance around $0.169 has been reclaimed, and price is now trading near $0.188, testing the upper boundary of the current range.
Levels to watch:
$0.169 — key support after the breakout
$0.190–$0.200 — immediate resistance and liquidity area
$0.210–$0.230 — potential upside targets if momentum continues
A clean breakout and hold above $0.19 could open the way toward $0.20 and beyond.
If

#KoreanStocksJumpOver5% #ShareWeekly
KOSPI Surges Over 5%: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix Lead Powerful Rebound with Detailed Price and Percentage Moves
South Korea’s benchmark KOSPI index staged a sharp recovery on November 10, 2026, climbing more than 5% at the open and reclaiming the 5,200 level after a severe recent selloff. The index closed the previous session at 5,018.85. It opened at 5,247.22, a gain of 228.37 points or +4.55%. Early trading saw the KOSPI reach 5,294.35, up 275.50 points or +5.49%. It briefly touched an intraday high of 5,300.92, representing a peak gain of approxim

A proposal to allow two projects; Juris Protocol and LuncSwapfun; to directly upload their CosmWasm code onto the Terra Classic chain has been approved by the votes of $LUNC validators.

There was some unnecessary debate surrounding the proposal, but the Terra Classic community ultimately made the right choice. The Juris Protocol team is doing significant work for $LUNC and USTC. It is worth remembering that Terra’s initial rise was driven by the Anchor Protocol; you can think of Juris Protocol as an advanced version of the Anchor Protocol.

#TerraClassic #LUNC #USTC #JurisProtocol $LUNC ‌

Tonight, I'll use 4,000 U to challenge myself to make 40,000 U in profit. I must get rich and beautiful #山东济宁大壮哥

I quite like using #闲钱宝
I like placing my limit orders low; sometimes they go unfilled for several days. What I like most about Idle Cash Bao is that my funds earn a return while my order is resting. Even if I don't manage to buy, at least those few days weren't wasted! #闲聊 $NVDA

$BTC BlackRock-affiliated products cut holdings by more than $330 million in a single day! $213.23 million was sold on the Bitcoin side. Ethereum also saw $118.28 million in reductions! Both were cut at the same time, with Bitcoin accounting for the bulk. Can spot buyers absorb this wave of selling pressure? On November 9, U.S. Eastern Time, BlackRock-affiliated products reduced their holdings by $213.23 million worth of BTC and $118.28 million worth of ETH, totaling $331.51 million, with BTC accounting for about 64%. Next, watch the fund flows of other spot ETFs. If outflows are concentrated

$BTC Earlier, I pointed out that the liquidation cluster between $73K and $74K is larger than the one above price.

Looking at the numbers, we have roughly $1.3B in long liquidations below compared to $800M in short liquidations above.

While this imbalance favors the downside, it's far from extreme.

An upside sweep remains possible, but based on the current liquidity distribution, I still slightly favor a red day today.

gm Elysium printers
another day to log on and lose money.

Bitcoin miner MARA Holdings (@MARA) transferred out another 500 $BTC ($37.38M) today.
Since Oct 1, #MARA has sold a total of 13,597 $BTC ($1.1B) at an average price of $81,039.

Zhang Jingkang, founder of Zu Lijian elderly shoes, has become a “dishonest judgment debtor.”
On November 9, the Feixi County Court in Anhui listed Zhang Jingkang, Zhang Shaokang, Xin Junlan, and Suixian Zu Lijian Shoes as dishonest judgment debtors in a case involving 1.9542 million yuan, none of which has been repaid. The court found that they “had the ability to perform but refused to do so.” The applicant for enforcement was Anli Co., Ltd., which supplied them with materials.
This is not the first time: 22 consumption restriction orders have been issued against Zhang Jingkang, involving a