#美股史诗级抛售 #10月非农数据聚焦 #作手分析
🔥 U.S. stocks and crypto plunge together, leaving long positions underwater! Crisis or long-term opportunity? Trader breaks down the three key reasons behind the selloff

Trading watchlist: $BTC $ETH $NVDA $GOOGL $ANTHROPIC

On November 5, U.S. stocks and crypto markets suffered a sharp selloff. The Nasdaq fell 5.52%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.3%, and NVDA fell about 9%, with semiconductor stocks such as MU and AMD dropping even more. BTC fell below $76,000, while ETH, HYPE, and others also pulled back sharply.

I’m transparent about my live positions: my HYPE, GOOGL, and ANTHROPIC long positions are currently also showing unrealized losses.

But I don’t think this downturn means the long-term cases for AI and crypto assets are over. Some high-quality assets may, in fact, be presenting long-term spot opportunities worth watching.

I. Three reasons behind this selloff

1️⃣ U.S. midterm elections shift expectations for AI investment

The Democratic Party won control of both chambers of Congress, raising concerns that future data center construction, energy supply, and AI infrastructure investment could face stricter regulation.

But this is only the trigger. The deeper question is whether massive AI capital expenditures can translate into sustained revenue and profits. As the market starts questioning returns on investment, valuations may be repriced.

2️⃣ The AI industry shifts from storytelling to proving profitability

In the past, the market was willing to pay high valuations for AI growth. Now, institutions are paying closer attention to orders, revenue, profits, and cash flow.

Chip demand may remain strong over the long term, but data center construction requires massive investment. Financing costs, energy supply, construction approvals, and investment payback periods could all affect the pace of industry expansion.

AI hasn’t disappeared; the market is simply starting to demand that companies demonstrate real profitability.

3️⃣ U.S. stock losses combine with crypto market liquidations

U.S. tech stocks plunged, and risk appetite quickly declined. CoinDesk, citing CoinGlass data, reported that more than $1 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated in the crypto market over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for the vast majority.

But the crypto market was already under pressure from ETF outflows, shrinking stablecoin supply, and other factors. The decline in U.S. stocks acted as a catalyst, while leveraged liquidations further amplified the losses.

II. Why is Trader starting to look for long-term spot opportunities?

My logic is simple: short-term price declines don’t mean long-term business value has disappeared.

For NVDA, I’m watching AI chip demand and orders; for GOOGL, cloud business and AI commercialization; for BTC and ETH, capital flows and ecosystem development; and for HYPE, platform revenue and token value capture.

Of course, a big drop doesn’t mean an asset is cheap. For assets like ANTHROPIC, which are still subject to valuation expectations, it’s especially important to watch financing, computing costs, and whether future revenue materializes.

III. What will Trader do next?

I handle spot investing and futures trading separately:

• Spot: Build positions in high-quality assets I’m bullish on in batches, spread out the buying period, and don’t go all-in at once trying to call the bottom.

• Futures: Don’t blindly add to positions just because they’re underwater, and never hold on indefinitely. Wait for signs of stabilization, a breakout, and a confirmed retest before looking for opportunities on the right side of the trend.

• Risk management: If fundamentals change or the price structure continues to weaken, reassess instead of stubbornly sticking to the original view.

Tonight at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. will also release its October nonfarm payrolls report. The data could further affect expectations for Fed rate cuts and the performance of risk assets.

Trader believes this correction is worth watching, but it’s still too early to declare that a bottom has formed.

Don’t try to call the top or bottom, and don’t chase the first big green candle. The macro sets the direction; the structure determines the entry.

How are you planning to respond to this selloff?

A. Build a spot position in batches

B. Reduce exposure and wait for confirmation

C. Stay bearish and wait for a deeper bottom

D. Wait on the sidelines for now

Let the market provide the answer instead of trying to predict it!

(Personal opinion for discussion only; not investment advice.)

#DemocratsWinBothChambers Divided Government Arrives in Washington
The 2026 midterm elections have changed the balance of power in Washington. According to an Associated Press tally reported by NPR, Democrats have won majority control of the U.S. Senate. That ends two years of unified Republican control and sets up divided government with President Trump in the White House during the final two years of his second term.

Senate: Where the count stands

NBC News reported Democrats at 54 seats and Republicans at 44, with two races still uncalled, in Alaska and Mississippi. The Mississippi race between Scott Colom and incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith was separated by only a few dozen votes in the latest count, so it can still change. Before the election, Republicans held a 53 to 47 majority.

Among the confirmed results, Josh Turek defeated Ashley Hinson in Iowa, and Roy Cooper defeated Michael Whatley in North Carolina. Democrats also held Georgia, where Jon Ossoff won re-election, and New Hampshire, where Chris Pappas was declared the winner.

House: The count is still moving

NBC News projected Democrats at 258 seats and Republicans at 177, against the 218 needed for a majority. Other reports from the same night described the count as too early to call. Final certification may take days or weeks, so treat the exact House margin as provisional until official results are in.

What divided government changes

Democratic control of the Senate gives the party a say over which judicial and executive nominees receive floor votes, along with a stronger oversight role. NPR notes that the new majority sets the stage for investigations that could dominate the rest of Trump's term. For policy, this usually means fewer major bills passed without bipartisan support, and more fights over budgets, nominations and subpoenas.

Taxes, tariffs and spending

Divided government typically slows large tax changes and new spending programs, since legislation requires agreement in both chambers. Tariffs have largely been set through executive action, so their path depends less on Congress, although lawmakers can still influence trade policy through legislation, hearings and funding decisions. Government spending will likely become a contentious area in budget talks. I did not verify specific proposals for the coming session, so these points describe the structure of divided government rather than a forecast of any particular bill.

Regulation and crypto policy

CoinShares has said that progress on U.S. crypto market-structure legislation may slow under a Democratic-controlled Congress. Bitcoin may be less exposed to that risk than exchanges and token issuers, which face more direct regulatory scrutiny. For the crypto sector, the practical question is how quickly a regulatory framework can pass, not whether it can pass at all.

Markets on election week

U.S. equities rallied after the result. Bitcoin dropped to about $75,600 during the count, then recovered above $80,000 on November 4. That recovery came despite spot Bitcoin ETFs posting about $1.16 billion in net outflows across three sessions, so the rebound is not yet backed by steady institutional demand. The market reaction looks like relief that uncertainty is clearing, rather than a verdict on the policy outlook.

Treasury yields and the dollar

I did not verify yield or currency moves for this session, so I will not quote them. Divided government is often read as a brake on large spending, which could ease pressure on long-term yields. But the effect depends on deficits, inflation and Federal Reserve policy, and those can outweigh the political signal. The same applies to the dollar, which responds more to rate expectations than to the composition of Congress.

Sectors to watch

Sectors most sensitive to policy shifts include healthcare, energy, defense, financials and technology. Manufacturers and importers depend on tariff policy. Banks, crypto firms and large technology platforms are most exposed to regulatory decisions. Each sector still moves mainly on its own earnings and fundamentals, so election results alone are a weak guide to individual stocks.

A neutral market outlook

Divided government usually means fewer large legislative swings, more oversight and more gridlock. Markets often prefer predictability, and the immediate reaction has been positive. But the near-term policy path depends on negotiations that have not yet started. The election removes one source of uncertainty and adds another, which argues for balanced positioning rather than a strong directional bet.

Watch the Alaska and Mississippi calls, the final House count, ETF flows into Bitcoin, and any early budget or tariff proposals from either side. The bigger effect of this election will be on how policy gets made over the next two years, more than on any single market in the first few days.