xamanap

well played bulls, market seems healed atm.
closing shorts, loading on spot on dips.exe.
special congrats to my homies who had strong conviction on the bottom being in. chads.

soft dollar $DXY pumping majors.

soft dollar $DXY pumping everything.

Top token unlocks (Aug 17–23) 👇
Scaled by $ unlocked
$AKE ██████████ $21.1M
$ZRO ██████████ $20.1M
$KAITO █████ $11.3M
$YZY ████ $8.2M
$PYBOBO ██ $5.2M
$PENGU ██ $4.2M
$SENT ██ $4.1M

BTC is losing support from both momentum and macro.
volatility-adjusted momentum has slipped below zero, while a risk oscillator built from the S&P 500, gold, crude, and the dollar is back at a prior turning zone.
both sides of the setup are weakening at the same time.

gm☕️happy weekend

short-term $BTC supply is shrinking toward levels historically associated with late bear markets.
roughly 24% of supply now sits in sub-6-month cohorts, meaning fewer coins remain in the hands of highly reactive holders.
that is constructive for supply structure, but it also reflects weak new demand. the healthier setup comes when long-term ownership stays elevated while fresh demand begins returning.

long-term holders (LTH) are accumulating again, but not enough to change the bigger trend.
LTH inflows have produced several strong spikes, yet total LTH balance continues to decline as older holders keep distributing $BTC .
the real confirmation will come when accumulation becomes persistent enough to reverse the balance itself, not just create temporary inflow spikes.

Top token unlocks (Aug 10–16) 👇🏼
Scaled by $ unlocked
$RAIN ██████████ $631.4M
$PUMP ▎ $19.2M
$PIEVERSE ▎ $15.6M
$STBL ▏ $8.7M
$ARB ▏ $7.4M
$APT ▏ $6.0M
$US ▏ $4.0M

gm☕️ lets crush this week

gm☕️ enjoy the w

BTC’s on-chain cycle composite has fallen to 22.3, placing the market near historical accumulation territory.
that does not confirm the bottom, but it materially improves the long-term setup.

USDT liquidity is contracting at one of the fastest rates on record.
the 60-day market cap change has fallen to roughly -$4B, leaving less deployable capital available to support $BTC rebounds.
this does not guarantee further dump, but it explains why rallies remain fragile. durable recovery needs stablecoin supply to stop shrinking and begin expanding again.

$BTC has entered a zone that historically appears late in bear markets.
the Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio is now in the 3rd percentile, reflecting deep compression and weak market conviction.
that improves long-term asymmetry, but it does not confirm the bottom. In prior cycles, this phase lasted for months before the market fully reset.

$BTC unrealized losses remain elevated at 35.2%.
first stress wave has passed. what follows will show whether the market is stabilizing or simply pausing before another dump.