Square
Following
Hot
News
Notifications
Profile

patch

vip
No content yet
Peak Tier VIP 35.6 Year(s)
1
Following
20
Followers
27
Liked
#BTC #SPX
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in 2008–2009.
Friends, the period in S&P 500 history that most closely matches Bitcoin $BTC 's past 13 months in both duration and depth is June 2008–July 2009. The similarity coefficient for weekly closes is 0.86.
Bitcoin fell 52% in 38 weeks from its weekly closing peak of 123,482 and bottomed at 59,577. The S&P 500 also fell 50% in 39 weeks from 1,360, bottoming at 683 in March 2009. The rebound from the bottom lasted 14 weeks for both: Bitcoin rose 45% to 86,530, while the S&P 500 climbed 38% to 946. Then both pulled back.
The S&P 500 did not make a new low
post-image
BTC-0.67%
SPX+0.33%
#BTC #NASDAQ
Bitcoin and Nasdaq.
Friends, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin $BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.72. Three months ago, it was 0.31. Since 2024, this level had been reached only twice: January 2025 and November 2025.
Over the past year, BTC also fell on 12 of the 13 days when the Nasdaq dropped more than 2%, averaging -2.9%. BTC also rose on 12 of the 14 days when the Nasdaq gained more than 2%, averaging +2.5%. On November 5, the Nasdaq fell 6.4% and BTC fell 5.5%.
Follow-through after the previous two periods was weak. BTC, at 104,077 on January 17, 2025, was down 20.5
BTC-0.67%
NAS100-0.07%
SPX500+0.19%
#ALTCOIN #BTC
Altcoins' dependence on Bitcoin.
Folks, the average 30-day correlation between Bitcoin $BTC and 36 major altcoins is 0.71. ETH moves almost identically at 0.96, XRP and SOL at 0.89, and DOGE at 0.88.
Very few coins diverge. Tron TRX moves independently of Bitcoin at -0.20. Celestia TIA at 0.43, Polkadot DOT at 0.52, Cosmos ATOM at 0.54, and Optimism OP at 0.55 are at the bottom of the list. Since October 5, two of the five altcoins that have fallen less than Bitcoin are TRX and TIA.
The magnitude of the moves matters as much as the correlation. Over the past 30 days, for every 1
post-image
BTC-0.67%
ETH-1.26%
XRP-1.15%
SOL-0.77%
DOGE-0.22%
#TOTAL3
Altcoin market capitalization.
Friends, altcoin market capitalization excluding BTC and ETH, TOTAL3, closed on November 5 at 726 billion, below the 728–735 billion support band. This band held on September 2, September 16, and October 30; the 200-day average at 729 billion is also here. The November 6 close also came in below the band at 727.8 billion.
Currently around 725.6 billion. The first support below is 716–726 billion, where the May lows are. If this level is lost too, 683–692 billion comes into play, followed by the June–August lows at 641–651 billion.
Above, 735 billion needs
post-image
#BTC
November stats.
Friends, November has historically been one of the stronger months for Bitcoin $BTC .
Since 2011, 9 of 15 Novembers have closed in the green, with a median return of +8.8%.
But its place in the cycle matters. Novembers in halving years have always closed in the green: 2012 +13.0%, 2016 +6.5%, 2020 +42.8%, and 2024 +37.4%. Novembers two years after a halving have been mixed: 2014 +11.5%, 2018 -37.0%, 2022 -16.2%.
2026 falls into this second group in the cycle. This November is currently down -2.0%, below its opening price of 77,425.
The levels I’m watching are the 50-week a
post-image
BTC-0.67%
#BTC
Weekly outlook.
Friends, Bitcoin $BTC is entering the weekend around 76,050. Weekly closes have been red for four consecutive weeks since early October, and this week it is still below the 78,354 open.
The critical level is the 50-week average at 75,559. Price has stayed above this average on weekly closes since mid-September; although it wicked down to 74,888 this week, it recovered. A weekly close above 75,559 at 03:00 Sunday night would mean the structure remains intact.
If the weekly close is above 81,196, the levels I marked on the chart—84,898 - 87,396—will be sequential targets.
If
BTC-0.67%
#UNI
Weekly view.
Friends, Uniswap $UNI rose from its June 6 low of 2.316 to 10.942 on September 23, about 4.7x. After the pullback, it is now around 7.04 and trading above the 200-week average of 6.853. The 50-week average at 4.719 is much lower.
Since October 13, the price has ranged between 6.25 and 7.82. Lows were 6.516 on October 24, 6.254 on October 29, and 6.587 on November 5; highs were 7.79 on October 21, 7.521 on October 29, and 7.82 on November 4.
Once 7.82 is cleared with a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—8.447, 9.324, and 10.942—will be sequential targets. The 50-da
UNI+3.05%
#ONE
Current outlook.
Friends, Harmony $ONE rose 70% in a single day yesterday on volume 10 times its 30-day average, climbing from 0.001062 to 0.001804. The price reached 0.001985 today and is currently around 0.001920.
The price has moved above the 200-day average at 0.00155. Above, there is the 50-day average at 0.00194 and resistance at 0.00197-0.00199, followed immediately by the 50-week average at 0.00218.
Once 0.00199 is cleared on a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—0.00218 - 0.00252 - 0.00285—will be sequential targets.
Below, today's low of 0.00167 is the first support,
#XRP
Daily close.
Friends, Ripple $XRP closed the day at 1.179, below the October 30 low of 1.2002. The close came within the 1.1646-1.1843 band formed by the July highs, with an intraday low of 1.1723.
This band is now key support. A daily close below 1.1646 would put the July 15 high at 1.1302, followed by the 1.05-1.07 zone, in focus.
To the upside, 1.2002 must first be reclaimed, followed by the 1.25-1.26 zone and the 200-day moving average at 1.2707. Once the 200-week moving average at 1.2835 is reclaimed with a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—1.3414 - 1.3992 - 1.435 - 1.65
XRP-1.15%
#PEPE
Daily close.

Folks, Pepe $PEPE closed the day at 0.00000499, up 4%. It rose to 0.00000520 during the day but could not reach the 0.00000533 resistance. The 0.00000462 support is holding; the November 5 low remained at 0.00000463.
The price is above the 20-day average at 0.00000470 and the 50-week average at 0.00000456. If it breaks above 0.00000568 on a daily close, the 0.00000689–0.00000726 levels I marked on the chart will be sequential targets.
If 0.00000462 is lost, 0.00000421, tested 11 times, comes into play, followed by the October 8 low at 0.00000364.
Continuing to monitor.
Not
PEPE+0.97%
#EIGEN
Daily close.
Folks, EigenLayer $EIGEN closed at 0.1726, up 3.7%.
After bottoming at 0.1592 on October 30, it made a higher low at 0.1641 on November 5; the August lows of 0.1637-0.1645 are also in the same area.
The first test above is 0.1764-0.1775; price reversed from 0.1775 intraday. Once 0.1775 is cleared on a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—0.1859 - 0.2097 - 0.2288—will be sequential targets. The 20-day moving average at 0.1976 is also on the way.
Below, if there is a daily close below 0.1637-0.1645, the October 30 low of 0.1592, followed by the June low of 0.1523, w
EIGEN-0.85%
#AR
Daily close.
Friends, Arweave $AR closed the day at 3.199, up 5.5%, and moved back above 3.120, which it lost on November 5. The 2.95-3.00 zone held twice: at 3.00 on October 30 and 2.95 on November 5.
Above, there are the November 4 and 5 peaks at 3.352-3.359, the 20-day average at 3.378, and resistance at 3.40. Once 3.40 is cleared on a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—3.631-4.017—will be sequential targets; higher up is the September 20 peak at 5.289.
Below, a daily close under 3.120 would bring 2.95-3.00 into play, followed by 2.80 and the 50-week average at 2.629.
Contin
AR-1.14%
#RENDER
Daily close.
Friends, Render solana:rndrizKT3MK1iimdxRdWabcF7Zg7AR5T4nud4EkHBof closed the day up 5.2% at 1.580. After the main support at 1.44 was tested for the 7th time on November 4, the lows rose to 1.471 on November 5 and 1.502 on November 6.
The first test above is once again 1.64; the price was rejected at 1.636-1.641 on November 4 and 5. Just above that are the 50-week moving average at 1.671 and resistance at 1.72-1.76. If 1.64 is cleared on a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—1.72 - 1.86 - 2.233—will be sequential targets.
Below, 1.50-1.51 and 1.44 are the main s
RENDER+0.47%
#BTC
Daily close.
Friends, Bitcoin $BTC closed the day at 75.844. During the day, it dropped as low as 74.888, wicking below the November 5 low of 75.208 and the 50-week average at 75.556, but closed above both. It is important that this zone held despite U.S. employment data coming in far above expectations.
Above, there are 76.260 and the 100-day average at 77.227. Once 77.227 is reclaimed on a daily close, the 78.960 - 81.196 levels I marked on the chart will be sequential targets.
Below, if there is a daily close under 74.888, the 200-day average at 73.240 comes into play. It is important
BTC-0.67%
#ETH
Daily close.
Friends, Ethereum $ETH closed at 2,238.7, where it opened. The price dipped to 2,210 during the day and closed above the November 4 low of 2,226; on November 5, this level was also pierced by a wick but held at the close.
Above are the 50-week average at 2,304 and the 20-day average at 2,327. Once 2,304 is reclaimed with a daily close, the levels I marked on the chart—2,450, 2,559, and 2,807—will be sequential targets.
Below, if there is a daily close under 2,226, the October 30 low of 2,174, the 200-day average at 2,157, and 2,129 will come into play.
Continuing to monitor.
ETH-1.26%
Load More