lvkonglong

vip
Crypto Market Researcher
Market Analyst
Futures Trading Strategist
With stop-loss in place, pursue high probability within the familiar patterns.
Yesterday, a large bullish candle surged to 82000; today, it pulled back to 78660 and is now holding steadily above 80000.
Many people are asking: Is this a shakeout or a market top?
One data point makes it clear—the daily net inflow into the BTC spot ETF yesterday hit a nearly nine-month high.
In other words: Wall Street is frantically buying above $80,000. What are you panicking about?
From a technical perspective:
● MA20 (75633) is still providing solid support below
● Today's low of 78660 precisely retested the area near MA5 before bouncing
● On the daily chart, the bulli
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August rose 24%, but I'm not panicking.
Reason: Open interest in perpetual contracts is at its lowest level since May, and leveraged longs have been almost completely flushed out. This rally is driven by ETF and spot buying, not a bubble.
However, ETFs saw $200 million in outflows last Friday, and three attempts to break above 82,000 were rejected. The probability of a Fed rate hike is close to 64%.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls will be the dividing line—
Poor data → bullish for BTC, push to 82,000
Strong data → bearish for BTC, pullback to 77,000
Now it's not that I'm afraid to trade; it's just n
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Is $80k just a stopover, or a new starting point? BTC put on quite a show this week—the market reached euphoria after it surged to 81473 on Wednesday, only for a big bearish candle on Thursday to slam it back to 77000, publicly humiliating the bulls. But don’t rush: it’s up +22.7% over the past 14 days, the U.S. Treasury suddenly ramped up its Treasury purchase plan (the real catalyst), and RSI at 58 isn’t overbought yet. The sideways trading around 77500 isn’t a collapse—it’s building momentum. Don’t chase highs in the short term, and don’t panic in the medium term. In the first week of Septe
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At Monday’s open, watch ⚡ the Fed’s hawkish aftershocks + surging exchange inflows + 15% short-term holder profits, with triple pressure converging on the 80k level. The higher-timeframe bullish trend remains intact, but don’t rush to chase highs in the short term—wait for direction confirmation. A failure to break above 792 means range-bound trading; a breakout points to 815. If 764 breaks to the downside, 754 is the next battleground.
#BTC重返81000美元
Crypto
What price will Ethereum hit in August?
↑ 1,900
Yes
↑ 2,500
Yes
+43 more
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📊 BTC 8/29 intraday review: Opened at 80500, surged to 81473 during the Asian session before plunging, hitting a low of 76890. Key levels:
▪️ Upper resistance: 80000 round-number level → no break, no bullish outlook
▪️ Lower support: 76890 (today’s low) → break below targets 74000
▪️ Midline: Repeated back-and-forth trading around 78500
Trading plan:
Bears have the upper hand. Try a small short position on a rebound into the 79000-79500 range, with a stop-loss at 80200.
If 76890 holds, consider a small long position to trade the rebound, with a stop-loss at 76200. In one sentence: Follow the
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Last October, Bitcoin hit $126k, and everyone was shouting, “A million is not a dream.”
Today, at $80k, everyone is shouting, “The bull is back.”
No one is mentioning the 40% drop in between.
I’m not trying to pour cold water on things—the ETF inflows are indeed surging, and the debasement trade thesis does hold. But when a market’s greed index spikes to 83, and a 20% weekly gain is driven mainly by short liquidations rather than spot buying, you have to ask yourself one question:
This time, are institutions buying the dip, or are retail investors left holding the bag?
$6.4 billion i
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Glassnode’s latest report has drawn a line between life and death: $81,000–$86,000.
This range brings together four layers of selling pressure—cost basis levels, re-posted sell orders, the options gamma flip level, and liquidation orders. With all four layers of resistance stacked together, breaking through in one shot is almost impossible.
My view:
First target: $83,300. If it moves above that level and ETF inflows continue, the trend is confirmed—look toward $90k.
First support: $78,000. Last night’s low of $77,600 was quickly bought back, showing that this level has buyers.
Extreme support:
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Last October, BTC hit an all-time high of $126k.
Then it fell all the way to the low $50ks, and everyone declared the market dead. What happened next?
8 days, 30%.
$4.6 billion in short positions wiped out overnight. The market never lacks smart people; what it lacks is people willing to act when others are fearful. The question now is: are you going long at $80k, or waiting for a pullback to get in? My answer: neither is urgent. First, let’s see whether ETF funds can post net inflows for three consecutive weeks. If they can, it’s a trend; if not, it’s a rebound. Don’t fight the market—make fr
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Last night, my short position was stopped out for a loss, and the 76600 support was much stronger than expected.
Today, the bulls launched a direct counterattack to 80000, with an intraday range of $4,500 and volatility back.
My view:
80000 is a psychological round-number level, so a pullback is highly likely after the first surge. But with the 30-day +20% trend in place, any pullback is an opportunity.
Short-term support: 77200 (today's opening price)
Short-term resistance: 81200 (24H high)
If 81200 breaks, the next target is 85000.
Don't try to guess the top; trade with the trend.
#BTC突破8100
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Bitcoin Soars—Don’t Mistake a Short Squeeze for a Bull Market
Bitcoin surged from $62k to above $75k this week, gaining over 20% in a single week, while more than 130k traders had their positions liquidated across the network, totaling over $1.2 billion. The market is abuzz, with calls that “the bull market is back” growing louder.
But a sober look reveals that the essence of this surge was not an influx of spot buying, but a typical short squeeze—the massive number of short positions accumulated during six months of consolidation were liquidated en masse after the price broke through key
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“Up 20% in one day! What exactly happened to Ethereum? The truth behind 170k liquidations” “Up 20% in one day, 170k people liquidated, $2.9 billion wiped out—the Ethereum market today isn’t signaling the start of a bull market; it’s the dollar ‘fleeing for its life.’” Core narrative: U.S. debt surpasses $40 trillion → the Federal Reserve turns hawkish → the Treasury steps in to rescue the market → the dollar plunges → global capital pours into non-dollar assets → Ethereum surges 20% in a single day. Closing view: “The short-term RSI is already at 82, indicating severe overbought conditions, so
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Bitcoin consolidates around $64k, with a directional move imminent
Bitcoin is trading at around $64.3k, fluctuating within a narrow range during the day, while the Bollinger Bands continue to contract—a typical “calm before the storm.” Resistance lies at $65,000–$66k, with support at $63,800–$64k; a breakout through either boundary would signal the direction. Spot-market whales have accumulated around 43k BTC over the past 60 days, showing clear structural accumulation; however, U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated, and the Fear Index is still in the “Fear” zone. After the sharp drop, the mark
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Short sellers wiped out to the tune of $179 million! ETH nears the $2,000 make-or-break level—is this the start of a bull market or a bull trap?
In 24 hours, $179 million worth of short positions vanished.
Over the past day, Ethereum staged a textbook short squeeze. The price surged from a low of $1,872, reaching as high as $1,918 and nearing the psychological $2,000 mark. Liquidations across the entire market totaled $216 million, with shorts accounting for more than 82%—those betting on ETH to keep falling were pinned to the floor and ground down by the bulls.
Everyone is shouting that ETH i
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ETH Consolidates Its Strength, Battle for the $1,900 Level
On August 17, Ethereum traded narrowly within the $1,870-$1,900 range. After dipping alongside Bitcoin in the early hours, it rebounded and recovered, but multiple attempts to break above the $1,900 level failed to hold effectively. Spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for five consecutive weeks, with institutional funds still positioning, but bearish forces in the derivatives market have strengthened somewhat, intensifying the tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Technically, MACD is neutral and RSI is around 54, with the direction not
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BTC Consolidates Near the Bottom, a Long-Short Battle Is About to Erupt
On August 17, Bitcoin traded narrowly between $63,000 and $64,000, briefly breaking above $64,000 intraday before pulling back. On the macro front, the U.S. dollar continued to weaken and expectations for interest rate hikes cooled, but the crypto market reacted coldly—ETF funds recorded net outflows for consecutive sessions, while institutional investors remained strongly on the sidelines.
More concerning is that the $48 billion in open interest in the futures market far exceeds the $25 billion daily trading volume, with
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Bitcoin will most likely continue trading in a narrow, weakly range-bound pattern tomorrow, with a bearish short-term bias; core support is $62,000-$62,500, and key resistance is $63,500-$64,000. As of August 16, BTC was trading at approximately $63,027, with a 24-hour range of less than 0.5%, indicating a typical low-volume sideways consolidation and wait-and-see state.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
● Support: First support at $62,000-$62,500 (lower Bollinger Band + dense trading zone); second support at $61,000-$61,126 (a break below the first support would lead to a further declin
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SanDisk rose another 7.39% on Friday, bringing its weekly gain to 35% and ranking first among U.S. stocks by trading volume. Investor Day set an 80% gross margin target and announced $93.9 billion in long-term contracted orders; combined with JPMorgan’s $2,250 price target, the market is repricing storage from a “cyclical stock” into a “growth stock.” However, short-term RSI is already overbought, and the 50-day moving average at 1,659 has yet to be broken. Chasing the rally requires caution. Support is at 1,572, with resistance at 1,646–1,667; wait for a pullback confirmation before taking ac
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Today, Bitcoin overall showed a volatile pattern of “rallying before retreating, with bulls and bears locked in a tug-of-war,” repeatedly contesting the 62,000-64,000 range.
📊 Price Performance
● It retreated from an intraday high near 65,234, briefly falling below 63,000 and touching a low of 62,912.
● As of the afternoon Beijing time, the price was consolidating narrowly around 63,400, up approximately 0.18% over 24 hours. Volatility was limited, but the direction remained unclear.
📉 Technicals: Fierce Contest at Key Levels
● Resistance: The 64,000-65,000 area is a key re
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