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Ito568

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Active for: 5.2y
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I just rewatched *The Odyssey*.
Everyone who has weathered several cycles in the market is, in fact, living through their own “Odysseus journey.” When setting out, everyone believes the destination is a triumphant return after conquering cities and expanding territory; only after enduring the full tearing apart of bull and bear markets do they suddenly realize: from beginning to end, this voyage was never an outward conquest, but a homeward journey inward.
The moment Troy fell, Odysseus became renowned throughout the world for his wooden horse stratagem. Yet the arrogance brought by victory al
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Everyone, don't just focus on Iran's issues; let me mention a few overlooked pitfalls:
First, April is tax season. In simple terms, it's the time of year when funds are most scarce, and the selling pressure in the US stock market is basically unavoidable.
Second, the balance sheet expansion that started at the end of last year should also stop by April. Cut off the faucet, how can the market hold up?
Third, Japan is raising interest rates, and next week they are probably going to start signaling management expectations. Once the yen arbitrage trades withdraw on a large scale, global assets wil
BTC1.36%
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The next Fed chair is basically going to be Hassett, starting trading in December. He advocates for significant interest rate cuts and is very familiar with Trump's economic policies. In a word, this is favourable information for BTC; the rebound is not over yet.
BTC1.36%
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There are quite a few unfavourable information, ff goes live to absorb some liquidity, the BTC conference on the 29th and 1st-2nd, it always falls during conferences, on the 30th 140 billion US debt is absorbing water, and on the 1st, the US government is very likely to shut down, it’s all tmd unfavourable information.
FF-5.44%
BTC1.36%
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Overall bullish, the first half of October may perform moderately, but as we move forward, the Liquidity trend will improve, especially after entering the second half of the month, the upward momentum in the market may gradually strengthen.
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Powell's unfavourable information sentiment should have been digested by now.
Essentially, it's just about valuation.
In fact, there is no unfavourable information.
Two consecutive days of good data
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Last night, Powell stated that U.S. stocks are overvalued from various perspectives and denied that AI is a core industry in the U.S., saying that it is too early for AI to lead a technological revolution. U.S. stock valuations are too high, AI is still in the experimental observation period, and hawkish statements continue to ferment, specifically targeting the AI zone and the Nasdaq. BTC will continue to fall, and releasing U.S. stock risks in advance will favor continuous rate cuts. After the U.S. bonds are issued at the end of September, Japan will raise interest rates in October, and liqu
BTC1.36%
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The Fed smoothly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, very steadily, without major panic and no worries about inflation. The guidance suggests further cuts in October and December within the year, giving the market enough face. There will be one rate cut next year, and Powell will step down next year. Traders are still betting on three rate cuts next year.
A soft landing for the economy is a preemptive interest rate cut, so there is no need to worry about a major drop.
Powell is still very confident about liquidity, and October is highly likely to welcome the altcoin season.
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Unless something unexpected happens, the unfavourable information tonight about the dot plot indicates two rate cuts this year, which will adversely affect US stocks and encryption. The dovish Powell's speech stabilizes the market, but there will still be three rate cuts this year, according to Powell's expectation management.
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So many people are faking it for this matter, this man-made prosperity. If you can't make money in the next six months, you will have let down this era.
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Therefore, Powell is likely to maintain a hawkish stance to suppress market rate cut expectations before the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data on September 5th, and then switch to a dovish stance after September 5th. The market expects the Non-farm Payrolls to increase from 73,000 to 88,000; as long as the data is greater than expected, it is Favourable Information. This is because the market previously believed that the employment rate was poor, leading to expectations of an economic recession, which formed a recessionary rate cut expectation. In that case, the market would also fall after a ra
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The service sector in the US, including housing and healthcare, is still manageable. The inflation issue has already been reflected in the goods sector, with 14% of the burden falling on exporters, 70% on importers and retailers, and less than 20% on consumers. American companies are hesitant to raise prices, and consumers have not yet felt the impact of inflation, but they will soon.
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Tomorrow's CPI inflation outlook is for a Rebound, the key is whether it will exceed expectations. Currently, it seems likely to exceed expectations. In the long term, there are no issues with inflation, but in the short term, the impact of tariffs needs to be reflected in inflation.
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Chuanzi messed up the first hundred days completely, tariffs, layoffs in departments, Russia-Ukraine negotiations.
The second hundred days of Chuanzi went smoothly. The big beautiful bill has passed, tariffs have been negotiated, and it has hit Iran. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is also about to be finalized.
The third hundred days of Chuanzi, the Alaska Russia-Ukraine conflict is still being resolved, the US AI has restarted, and the manufacturing industry is also returning.
Chuanzi is stable for the mid-term elections in November next year.
Global risks are decreasing, and US stoc
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AI in the United States is a technological revolution for humanity; it's not easy to encounter a technological revolution in a lifetime, and since we've encountered it, we must allocate some resources to it. It's not China's AI, does deepseek have anything to do with you? Can you buy deepseek's stock? China's AI can only compete a little with deepseek; among publicly listed companies, only Alibaba has some potential, let alone Baidu. The reason why US stocks haven't pulled back is precisely because of AI.
#SWARMS
SWARMS-0.86%
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Tonight's PPI is below expectations, and the initial jobless claims for the week exceed expectations, just like yesterday's forecast. Recently, there has been speculation about deflation, trading on expectations of a recession in the U.S. On the other hand, interest rate cut expectations may also come early. Short-term bearish, long-term bullish.
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The unemployment rate is 4.2%, with a net addition of 139,000 non-farm jobs. The risk of a market recession has not yet been observed. Currently, there is a kind of animal spirit in the equity market. What does this mean? It means that as long as the freshly released data is not imminent, the market will continue to dance and perform.
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To prompt Powell to cut interest rates, Chuanzi adjusted the unemployment rate for next Friday, June 6, to 4.5%, indicating signs of an economic recession in the U.S., allowing The Federal Reserve to quickly lower interest rates at 2 AM on June 19.
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