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$BTC Why I lean bearish: the market weakened after Fed comments, and even positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs have so far failed to deliver sustained growth.

Over the next 48 hours, BTC’s direction will most likely be determined by its reaction to the FOMC. Until then, volatile consolidation around 81,500 is likely.

Three scenarios for the next 1–3 weeks
Decline — my main scenario
If Bitcoin decisively breaks below $79 000, the next levels to watch will be $77 000 and $75 000–76 000. Under strong pressure, $72 000–74 000 is possible.
Sideways movement — also quite possible
Bitcoin continues to fluctuate between $79 000 and $82 000, gathering liquidity ahead of the next strong move.
Growth — if buyers confirm
A return above $82 000, followed by holding above $84 300, would improve the picture. The next targets could then be $87 000–90 000.

$BTC Where could it go next?
Above $82,000
The first good sign of a recovery. Next, we can look at $84–85 thousand.
$79,000–80,000
Buyers and sellers are battling here right now. Based on the latest available quotes, BTC had already bounced to $80,200–80,400.
Below $79,000
The risk of a drop to $77,600, and then $75,000, is increasing. These are possible scenarios, not guaranteed targets.
My assessment: for now, the short-term trend is more likely downward. But it is too early to call this a definitive Bitcoin crash. It will be especially important to see what happens on October 28 after the F

$BTC Large investors are pulling out their money. About $772 million flowed out of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday and Friday alone. This is putting serious pressure on the market.
Traders’ positions are being closed en masse. When Bitcoin falls, exchanges forcibly liquidate leveraged trades. This accelerates the decline.
Nervousness about the global economy. High oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and concerns about technology companies are prompting investors to reduce their exposure to risky assets.
Everyone is waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision on October 28. The future directio

Three scenarios for the next 24–48 hours
Decline — my base case
Estimated subjective probability: 50%
Test of $80,400, then a decline to $79,500–79,700. A test of $78,200 is possible if selling is strong.
Sideways movement
Estimated probability: 30%
Fluctuations between $80,400 and $81,700 without a decisive breakout from the range.
Rise
Estimated probability: 20%
A sustained move above $81,700 would open the way to $82,700, followed by $84,200.

$BTC If Bitcoin holds above $80 000 and returns to $82 500–85 000, the chances of a recovery will improve. If it breaks below $80 000 and stays there, a move toward $78 000 is quite possible.
What particularly concerns me is that the price has fallen below the 50-day moving average, while volatility is contracting. This sometimes precedes a new sharp move, although its direction is unknown in advance.

$BTC Why is it behaving this way?
I see three main reasons.
1. Large investors are reducing risk. Tech stocks are falling, oil prices are rising, and concerns about interest rates persist. Bitcoin is currently reacting to these developments more like a risky asset than a safe haven.
2. Money is flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs. Reports for October 23 put net outflows at around $635 million. This is adding further pressure on the price.
3. Forced liquidations are being triggered. When the price falls, exchanges close the positions of traders who used leverage. This intensifies the decline.

$BTC The most interesting thing now is whether buyers can hold $82,000 over the next 24 hours.

$BTC Why do I expect growth?
On October 19, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows of around $527 million. This is a positive signal. But the $89,000–90,000 zone remains serious resistance.
October 28 is an important date: the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. It could significantly change the market’s direction. What I would do now: I wouldn’t buy with the entire amount around $84,000. I’d rather wait either for a pullback to $80,000–81,000 or for a firm hold above $86,000.

$BTC Why is the market nervous?
US interest rates. Inflation remains high, and the Fed may raise rates again in December. This negatively affects risk assets.
Institutional demand is unstable. There are reports of outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, though some days show inflows.
Geopolitical tensions and high oil prices heighten concerns about inflation.

$BTC For a long: I would wait for a 15-minute candle to close above 82 835, preferably with increasing volume. That would open the way to 83 100 and potentially 83 500.
For a short: I would wait for a break below 82 490 and confirmation of weakness on the hourly chart. Then a move to 82 230, followed by 81 800, would be more likely.

Key levels:
$82 300 — breaking above will increase the likelihood of a rise.
$80 900 — nearest support.
$80 000 — important psychological level.
$79 700 — possible next target if it breaks downward.

In recent days, the market has been under pressure due to U.S. inflation data, Fed rate expectations, and weakness in tech stocks. On October 16, Barron's reported that BTC had fallen to a four-week low.

$BTC Tonight Trump may strike Iran hard
In just the past four hours, oil has surged 5%, to $110 a barrel. Since the “diesel deal” with Russia, oil is already up 9%.
The U.S. market, by contrast, plunged by $350 billion today. The midterm elections will be held in the U.S. in 2.5 weeks, and Trump could lose both the Senate and the House of Representatives. @banks_economy

$BTC My technical conclusion: the short-term outlook is currently tilted upward, but entering immediately after such a large green candle is risky. Especially with leverage.
I would watch the next two or three 15-minute candles: whether the price holds above 83,100 and whether buyers can break through 83,450.

Levels I would watch:
Above 81,900–82,000 — there will be grounds to expect continued growth.
Below 81,200 — the likelihood of a test of 80,800–80,900 will increase.
Between them — the direction is not yet confirmed.

$BTC I would look at it this way right now:
Long only after strength returns. I would be more interested in seeing a move back above 80,850–80,950, followed by a break of 81,230. If the 15-minute candle closes above 81,230 and the level holds on the retest, the next targets would be around 81,700–81,950, followed by the 82,250 area.
The 80,400–80,500 zone below is very interesting. As long as it holds, the current picture can still be considered a healthy consolidation. If price makes a quick sweep below it and is immediately bought back above ~80,600, that would be much more interesting for a

$BTC holding $80k → second assault $81k → a breakout of $81.7–82k opens the way to $83.3–83.6k. But if BTC quickly returns below $80k and fails to reclaim it, today's surge could turn out to be a liquidity sweep followed by a pullback toward $79–78.5k.

$BTC As of September 16, BTC was around $75,958, with today's range at $75,039–77,123. The market is also pricing in the failed procedural vote on the CLARITY Act; yesterday, the price fell to approximately $74,913.