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An explanation of the relationship between the Fed’s FOMC rate decision and gold prices, with the key information summarized below:
I. Key time points
• 2:00 a.m.: The Fed’s FOMC announces its rate decision
• 2:30 a.m.: Fed Chair Warsh holds a press conference
II. What is the FOMC?
The FOMC is a 12-member interest-rate decision-making group within the Federal Reserve. It holds eight meetings each year to decide the level of U.S. interest rates.
III. The logic behind the relationship between Fed rate hikes and gold prices
1. Core principle: Gold does not generate interest, while U.S. Treasuries pay interest. The higher the interest rate, the higher the opportunity cost of holding gold, so funds flow toward higher-yielding assets. Therefore, interest rates and gold prices generally move in opposite directions.
2. Expectations for this rate hike: The market broadly expects a 25-basis-point rate hike, taking rates to 3.75%-4%, the first rate hike since 2023.
IV. The two key focuses of this decision
1. Dot plot: The 12 officials will each provide their expectations for future interest rates. The key is whether they expect another rate hike later this year.
2. Warsh’s remarks: Pay attention to whether he describes this rate hike as “a precaution against inflation” or says “this is just the beginning.”
V. Market impact and trading recommendations
• Historical experience: On the day the dot plot is released, the market usually absorbs only 20% of the information, with the rest taking several months to be fully digested.
• Assessment for this time: The market has already largely priced in the rate-hike expectations, so the most likely scenario is that “rates are raised as expected, but the rhetoric remains restrained, resulting in the negative news being fully priced in after the decision.”
• Exception: If the dot plot shows that further rate hikes are still needed and Warsh hints at additional hikes, this would be a genuine negative surprise that the market is unprepared for, and gold would resume its search for support on the downside.
• Trading recommendation: Tonight, focus on three points: whether rates are raised, the dot plot, and Warsh’s remarks. $BTC ‌$ETH ‌$XAUUSD ‌$SNDK ‌

📣 Gate Square’s hot topics for today have been updated!
Anthropic may go public on Nasdaq, South Korean stocks plunged at the open, Robinhood Chain revenue declined for another consecutive period, Gate futures open interest exceeded $11.4 billion, oil prices returned to $100… There are quite a few hot topics today—which one are you most focused on?
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When the Japanese Yen surges rapidly, digital asset markets usually tremble, but this time, Bitcoin held its ground. In a stark contrast to the historic market turmoil of August 2024, Bitcoin has successfully weathered a rapid 3.7% rally in the Japanese Yen. While past yen carry-trade unwinds triggered brutal 20% liquidations across crypto venues, Bitcoin demonstrated remarkable resilience by holding firm above key technical support near $79,000. The Unwind Mechanism: How the Yen Carry Trade

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💙 My Gate Journey — An Opportunity That Became a Journey
I joined Gate on January 5, 2025, and at that time, I had no idea how much this platform would become a part of my journey. I started with streaming, and it was a really good time for me. Through content mining, different projects, campaigns, and other opportunities on Gate, I was able to earn while continuously learning and improving my skills. Every new opportunity gave me a reason to explore something different and keep growing.
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🔻 $XAU USD  |  Short
╰─► ENTRY  4436
TP1  4426
TP2  4423
TP3  4420
TP4  4417
⚡ SL  4442
◈ Institutional Setup
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$BTC Boom! Watch this morning’s market update video for targets to the downside!!