x方源

Is the Fed going to raise interest rates?

Short-term key points to watch: ① The quality of defense at the $2,280-$2,300 support zone—this is the most immediate battleground; if the daily close decisively breaks below $2,280, the next targets are $2,250-$2,220, and liquidation risk for whale longs will rise significantly; ② Whether the immediate $2,340-$2,360 resistance can be reclaimed—the first step toward halting the short-term decline; ③ The key $2,370-$2,400 threshold—reclaiming this zone is necessary to shift the assessment from “weak downtrend” to “bottoming in a range”; ④ Whether a new timeline emerges for the Glamsterdam upgra

Bullish thesis (oversold window and marginal support): ① The 15-minute MACD has formed a golden cross, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory, building demand for a technical rebound; ② The $2,280-$2,300 area has been tested today, and defensive buying may emerge near the $2,300 psychological level and previous lows; ③ If ETH can successfully form a bottom around $2,300, sentiment recovery driven by U.S. tech earnings could open a path to rebound toward $2,800, but first it needs to reclaim $2,370-$2,400; ④ If the FOMC keeps rates unchanged and its tone eases marginally, short-term pressure

ETH is in a downside window under the triple pressure of a delayed upgrade catalyst, continued ETF outflows, and fragile sentiment ahead of the FOMC. The $2,280-$2,300 support zone and $2,340-$2,400 resistance zone form the key near-term framework.

Bearish case (currently dominant): ① The Glamsterdam upgrade has been postponed indefinitely, raising the risk to the Q4 mainnet timeline and removing a technical catalyst; ② The Ethereum Foundation’s sale of 2,800 ETH has amplified panic amid fragile market structure; ③ Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with October

ETH is currently at 2310; don't chase shorts. 2320~2330 is the bears' core defense zone, and 2281 is the short-term bulls' last line in the sand. Until 2330 is broken, sell the rallies; until price drops to 2281 and shows clear signs of stabilizing, do not blindly buy the dip. Follow the trend and strictly use stop-losses!$ETH ‌

A key weekly-level battle point is approaching! Ethereum has stabilized at 2282 with a pin bar, and is now fluctuating around the 2385 watershed. If it can hold above 2385 and break through 2482, the market will officially stop falling and begin a weekly rebound; if it faces resistance, it will test support at 2276. Seize the key turning point!

Ahead of the rate decision, first watch the order in which the dollar, Treasury yields, and BTC react. The rate decision is only the first step; what often truly moves the market is how it interprets the policy path ahead.

6. 250 million USDC newly minted on the Solana network
Commentary: Continued stablecoin issuance injects liquidity on-chain

7. SlowMist warns: DarkSword malware targets iPhone crypto users
Commentary: iOS users, especially wallet users, should update their systems immediately

8. U.S. IRS: No separate voluntary disclosure program for cryptocurrency
Commentary: Crypto tax treatment is becoming “normalized,” with no special procedures

9. Bitcoin’s daily and 4-hour technical charts are bearish
Commentary: A short-term structural rebound may emerge over the weekend

10. Gold falls to a three-mon

2026.10.24 Chan Theory Community Web3 Morning News💥

1. Bitcoin falls below $81,000 as geopolitical risks weigh on the market
Commentary: $805 million is key support; a break below it would open up further downside

2. Ethereum trades around $2,377–2,380, with technicals signaling “Strong Sell”
Commentary: Thick bids provide only a short-term buffer, while ETH’s monthly decline far exceeds BTC’s

3. Fear & Greed Index at 51, in “Neutral” territory
Commentary: Sentiment has continued cooling from the greed zone to neutral

4. Initia pauses L1 and Rollup after an exploit, with losses exceeding

Technical and ecosystem factors support the long-term price level. Growth in Layer 2 networks’ total value locked and steady expansion in staking reduce the growth rate of circulating supply, both of which support price stability. Progress or delays in technical upgrades such as the Cancun upgrade may trigger short-term volatility by affecting market expectations for network performance.
Overall, short-term ETH volatility is driven by Fed policy expectations, the medium term is shaped by ETF capital flows and regulatory developments, and the long-term price level depends on the extent to which

Regulatory policy is a two-way factor. The approval pace and fund flows of U.S. spot ETH ETFs directly affect short-term prices: strong net ETF inflows can provide ETH with incremental capital support, while outflows create pressure. In addition, the EU’s MiCA implementation rules and the SEC’s classification of liquid staking businesses can also affect prices by influencing on-chain activity and institutions’ willingness to participate.

The transmission of global liquidity and risk appetite is equally important. A stronger US Dollar Index makes ETH less attractive to non-US users, while rising US Treasury yields weaken crypto assets’ appeal as “risk-free alternatives.” When the US Treasury expands buybacks of long-term bonds and expectations for long-term interest rates fall, risk appetite increases, and funds typically flow into BTC first before spreading to ETH. ETH has a high correlation with US tech stocks and often comes under pressure alongside them during economic downturns or periods of heightened risk aversion.

Federal Reserve monetary policy is the primary force either weighing on or supporting the market. Rate hikes directly raise dollar funding costs, causing leveraged capital to flow out of crypto markets and putting pressure on capital allocation away from ETH staking yields (about 4.5%). Historical data shows that every 50-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate lifts the ETH volatility index by an average of 12%. Core PCE remains above target, and Fed official Daly sent a hawkish signal, saying monetary policy may need to be tightened. Market bets on rate hikes in October and December b

ETH’s macro outlook centers on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path, followed by the influence of global liquidity, regulatory policy, and the technology ecosystem.

Crypto Investment “The Art of War” Practical Checklist
Model Crypto Operations
Win First, Then Fight Build positions only at safe levels; set a stop-loss and risk-reward ratio before opening a position
Invincibility Lies in Oneself Manage position size, leverage, and private key security to ensure you stay in the game
Be Cautious in War Trade less; only trade when conditions are met, and wait in stablecoins
Avoid Strengths, Strike Weaknesses Fight only within your circle of competence; avoid sectors you don’t understand
Orthodox and Unorthodox Core positions (BTC/ETH) + opportunity

Many people are wondering whether Bitcoin can reclaim $100k this year.

But in my view, rather than speculating every day about when it will break through, it’s better to first understand four conditions.

First, has pressure from Federal Reserve interest rates eased?

If inflation remains persistently hot, concerns about high interest rates will be hard to shake. Only as macro pressure gradually eases will BTC be more likely to receive sustained capital support.

Second, have institutional funds really returned?

It’s not unusual for Bitcoin to rally occasionally; the key is whether spot ETFs

Several signals from yesterday, viewed together:

1）BTC spot ETFs saw net outflows of $635 million;
2）ETH spot ETFs saw net outflows of $110 million;
3）BTC fell 4,000 points in a single day;
4）U.S. stocks plunged, and fear rose in tandem.

Against this backdrop, capital outflows are no surprise.

But the $80k support zone has been tested repeatedly, and prolonged back-and-forth is very unfavorable for bulls, so keep an eye on it.