Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has genuinely picked up from the near total shutdown seen earlier this year, but multiple independent trackers describe it as a gradual, uneven return rather than anything resembling full normalization. One tracking source put a recent day's transit count at 27 ships against a pre-war daily average of around 84, still well under a third of normal volume. A separate maritime intelligence firm logged 43 total transits combining inbound and outbound traffic on a similarly recent day, which is meaningfully better than the near zero readings from earlier this year but still far short of the hundred plus ships that used to cross daily before the conflict began.
The WTO's own trade data lab, tracking flows since the memorandum of understanding was signed on June 17, found that outbound crude shipments to destinations outside the Persian Gulf have remained limited to only a few isolated shipments, with the seven day moving average staying close to zero and well below both last year's baseline and the pre-war trend. Outbound LNG shipments have shown essentially no visible AIS-traceable movement through the strait to outside destinations since the deal was signed. Their summary was direct, the agreement has not yet led to a broad recovery in shipping through the strait.
There's a meaningful asymmetry in who's actually benefiting from the traffic that does exist. Iran itself has exported roughly 50 million barrels of crude since the US-imposed naval blockade was lifted a couple weeks ago, while other Gulf countries have reportedly struggled to move their own exports at anywhere near the same pace. Inbound traffic through the strait has also been described as dominated by Iran-linked and Iranian-owned shipping, with a notable concentration of sanctioned vessels and ships using identity obscuring tactics like disabling AIS transponders during transit.
Security conditions remain elevated too. The Joint Maritime Information Center recently raised the maritime security threat level for the strait to substantial, citing ongoing mine risk and active clearance operations, hardly the language you'd expect if the situation were genuinely resolved. Under the terms of the memorandum, the US has until July 19 to fully lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and Iran is only committed to making its best efforts, not a guarantee, to restore traffic to pre-war levels over that same window. Perhaps most importantly, the agreement leaves entirely unaddressed whether Iran will ultimately retain control over the strait once the current 60-day arrangement runs out, which is the exact issue that's kept sporadic friction alive even as headline shipping numbers improve.
For anyone tracking oil or Middle East linked risk assets on Gate, the honest read is that Hormuz traffic is recovering from crisis lows, but calling it normalized overstates where things actually stand. The more accurate framing is a fragile, partial recovery still running well below pre-war levels, with the core dispute over long-term control of the strait still completely unresolved.
