adam_greeks_live

【September 11 Options Expiry Data】
29,000 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.6, a maximum pain point of $78,000, and a notional value of $2.24 billion.
114,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 1.17, a maximum pain point of $2,450, and a notional value of $280 million.
Bitcoin continues to trade sideways and consolidate around $80,000. It began its rally in late last month and reached $80,000 within three days, and has now been moving sideways for nearly three weeks. As expected, Bitcoin’s fluctuations are completed within a very short period, followed by a prolonged s

【September 4 Options Expiry Data】
29,600 BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.65, a max pain price of $73,000, and a notional value of $2.39 billion.
139,000 ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.9, a max pain price of $2,400, and a notional value of $350 million.
After surging sharply two weeks ago, Bitcoin has continued to consolidate around $80,000. It often rises rapidly over a short period before shifting to a slow sideways decline, repeating the cycle. Monthly realized volatility (RV) continued to rise from last week to 40%, while monthly IV turned lower to 36%. The

It’s once again quietly preparing to break below 30%; block bullish trades accounted for 40% of today’s total volume, while short- and medium-term $80,000 Call volume was very large.
The big players in options are now determined to keep pulling the price around the $80,000 level for a while longer. External instability is also heavily limiting the market, so the main focus for now remains defense.

I’ve recently received a large number of password reset emails. X must have a security issue—everyone, be careful not to click them.

Today I saw people discussing Strategy restarting its BTC purchases. This kind of short-term stimulus does not affect the long-term trend, and Strategy is also a major bagholder. There is now no possibility of market manipulation for BTC, and no one can predict its price movements.
All we can say is that after Strategy has unrealized gains, it has more room to buy. Over a longer timeframe, ETFs are still seeing net outflows overall, making it very difficult for BTC to firmly hold $80K, with heavy selling pressure.
On the macro front, whether it is hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve or an

This week’s rapid rise has greatly boosted market morale. In addition to major coins such as BTC rising, all sectors have also shown clear signs of recovery.
However, as the market’s pace of growth slows, major options market investors have significantly lowered their expectations. Short- and medium-term options IV has quickly fallen back, with only a 10% increase compared with two weeks ago, while the medium- and long-term IV has also declined significantly, with an increase of less than 2% compared with two weeks ago, indicating that investors have lowered their expectations for future volat

Only when a major market move arrives can you truly tell whether an options risk system is useful.
Previously, when looking at an account, you only knew how much you had made that day. Now, with Pro Risk Analytics, you can break down a day's PnL directly:
Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, Skew, Smile, and Residual that the model cannot explain.
The account made money through bull spreads and futures on the day Bitcoin surged, but generally you can only see the total PNL. The most valuable thing is not this number, but being able to answer further:
Was this money ultimately made through Delta?
Or thro

【August 21 Options Expiry Data】
24k BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a max pain of $67,000, and a notional value of $1.82 billion.
149k ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a max pain of $2,000, and a notional value of $360 million.
Bitcoin rose sharply this week, breaking above 76K and surpassing this year's two sideways price zones. This is one of the few expiry days this year when the settlement price was higher than the max pain. Monthly realized volatility (RV) surged 20% to 53%, while monthly IV rose only 6%, and the VRP has now declined significantly.
L

It’s a weekday, yet IV is only 15% — the market has no signs of life.

Bitdeer may well be the stock whose highs and lows I’ve predicted most accurately over the past year. Unfortunately, my position was small, so I only made tens of thousands of yuan.

Is there any justice? Is there any law?
Has the IV of dated options fallen below 10%?

【August 14 Options Expiry Data】
20k BTC options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.84, a max pain price of $64,000, and a notional value of $1.29 billion.
96k ETH options expired, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.95, a max pain price of $1,900, and a notional value of $180 million.
Bitcoin continued to fluctuate around 64k this week, with actual volatility becoming increasingly subdued. Realized volatility (RV) fell to 25%, hitting a new all-time low and breaking below the three-stage lows from late October, late January, and early June in succession. IV also continued to decline, now falling

【August 7 Options Expiry Data】
32k BTC options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.26, a max pain price of $64k, and a notional value of $2.06 billion.
177k ETH options expire, with a Put Call Ratio of 0.77, a max pain price of $1,900, and a notional value of $340 million.
Bitcoin continued to move sideways around 64K this week. This range has remained range-bound for more than two months since May. From February to April this year, there was also a prolonged period of sideways trading, followed by a move of 30%. The price range above 65K is a high-volume trading zone from the rally at the begi