FrogKnowsKite

Last night and in the early hours today, BTC and ETH both saw another leg down, then moved out of a low-level rebound after one round of decline. Their price action remains highly correlated. BTC dipped to 64,620 and then gradually recovered; ETH’s low touched 185$ETH , with 8 synchronously stabilizing. However, the rebound strength isn’t strong—overall it’s a choppy repair move after a big drop. Overhead resistance is clearly suppressing price. Funds are still maintaining a slight net outflow.
The 15-minute Bollinger Bands show divergence. BTC has stabilized above the Bollinger middle band in

7.22 (Point reference is valid only for the day)
Market tone: On the large cycle, the weekly trend is still in a downtrend with weak repair; the daily chart is in a rebound. Today, holding above 65,800 means the bias is one-way bullish. If it can’t hold, it’s easy to see a “high run fails, then pulls back.” Over the past week overall, price rose while positions decreased. Yesterday morning from 8:00 a.m. to 12:00 a.m. (midnight), there was a rapid shift from price rising with position reduction to price rising with position increase—this is the biggest stretch of position buildup in recent tim

For the Ethereum short term, watch for changes in trading volume. If volume increases and it breaks above 1945, more aggressive traders can follow the move. As long as it holds here on the hourly timeframe, the upside first looks at the 1985-2030 range.
On the other hand, if a volume expansion occurs but it breaks down below 1917, then follow through with a pullback. Once it breaks below 1918 on the four-hour timeframe, the downside will likely target 1890-1847.
On the daily timeframe, the price has pulled back twice and both times held the long-term uptrend line for bulls, showing solid suppo