Champions League Spotlight: Bayern vs. Arsenal—How Are Event Markets Pricing the Clash Between European Giants?
What are funds expressing when a Champions League match is compressed into three percentages? As of Oct. 21, Gate’s event market data showed Bayern Munich with a 46% probability of winning, Arsenal at 30%, and a draw at 25%. The three figures add up to 101%; the difference comes from market-making friction and liquidity compensation and does not affect the directional assessment: funds view Bayern as the clear favorite, but 46% is far from constituting an “overwhelming consensus.” The question t

