This week is packed with bearish factors, such as month-end institutional rebalancing, Thursday's non-farm payrolls, and the ongoing tug-of-war in the US-Iran geopolitical situation. With triple pressure hitting, many people are confused about what's really driving the market.
In my opinion, the focus this week should first be on the non-farm payrolls.
Month-end rebalancing is just a passive operation, causing only short-term minor fluctuations. The market has already digested the Middle East situation repeatedly; at most, there will be a quick spike in the short term, but I doubt major waves will emerge.
Non-farm payrolls, on the other hand, are different. They will directly reshape expectations for Fed rate hikes. The direction of the US dollar and treasury yields depends entirely on them. Risk-free assets like Bitcoin and altcoins will be directly repriced. If the data comes in stronger than expected, a significant drop is highly likely and hard to avoid.
In such a situation, how should we as ordinary investors act? First and foremost, don't blindly follow; the panic sell-off by retail investors is driven by FOMO sentiment. Don't blindly cut losses. However, one thing to note is that institutional whales position themselves on a yearly cycle, so there's no need for us to stubbornly hold heavy positions either; be flexible.
If you're unsure, I suggest you mainly wait and see. Wait until Thursday's non-farm payrolls are released and interest rate clarity is achieved before preparing to enter the market. Don't bet on one-sided trends; seek certainty and stability.
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In my opinion, the focus this week should first be on the non-farm payrolls.
Month-end rebalancing is just a passive operation, causing only short-term minor fluctuations. The market has already digested the Middle East situation repeatedly; at most, there will be a quick spike in the short term, but I doubt major waves will emerge.
Non-farm payrolls, on the other hand, are different. They will directly reshape expectations for Fed rate hikes. The direction of the US dollar and treasury yields depends entirely on them. Risk-free assets like Bitcoin and altcoins will be directly repriced. If the data comes in stronger than expected, a significant drop is highly likely and hard to avoid.
In such a situation, how should we as ordinary investors act? First and foremost, don't blindly follow; the panic sell-off by retail investors is driven by FOMO sentiment. Don't blindly cut losses. However, one thing to note is that institutional whales position themselves on a yearly cycle, so there's no need for us to stubbornly hold heavy positions either; be flexible.
If you're unsure, I suggest you mainly wait and see. Wait until Thursday's non-farm payrolls are released and interest rate clarity is achieved before preparing to enter the market. Don't bet on one-sided trends; seek certainty and stability.
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