KevinSimback

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Sovereign intelligence starts with owning your context layer, your "second brain"
Quick test - if you got locked out of your Claude/ChatGPT account, could you switch model providers without missing a beat?
If not, you don't own your context layer and should fix that
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Genuine question for the distillation debate:
If a news outlet doesn't try to break news but rather provides recaps and their own versions of stories that other news outlets break, do we have a problem with that?
I get the stakes are higher with AI, just trying to think about it from different angles
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The AI bottlenecks trade has been the story for most of the year, but has cooled in recent weeks
Right now I like crypto (BTC/SOL) and hyperscalers until we see what picks up heat after earnings season and summer lull
BTC-0.64%
SOL0.37%
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It should be obvious by now that just selling inference into a highly competitive and increasingly commoditized market is not going to justify the trillion+ $ valuations
And we should also remember that if the product is subsidized you are, or eventually will be, the product
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The best way to ensure American models (closed or open) can sustainably compete is to just ensure access to the most efficient compute
So if intelligence commoditizes (or distills quickly), then whoever can serve that intelligence most efficiently wins
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Can a small open model with $3 of fine-tuning beat a production RAG setup?
This is what I tested, and the results were impressive
Based on a 100-question eval set, a fine-tuned version of Qwen3.5-9B outperformed Gemini Flash with RAG and Opus4.8/Sonnet 5 without RAG
Working on a full write-up of the end-to-end flow
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Over the weekend there was a lot of chatter (and slop) about Graph Engineering vs Loops, thanks @steipete
Just a reminder that Looper is already very graph-aligned
> it thinks in nodes and decision points (goal, plan, gates, deliver, stop)
> gates act as conditional branches (pass / revise / fail)
> it maintains explicit state and produces a flowchart preview
It basically addresses the main weaknesses of "naive loops"
So no need to totally discard loops, just build better loops
That said, graphs can be better when you need a combo of LLM-based and deterministic-based actions together in a proc
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In any debate involving future unknowns there is a tendency to want to throw the baby out with the bathwater
You can see that clearly in some of the AI policy debates
And just to make sure we're all perfectly clear here - the baby is open source
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If open source labs want to make money while remaining open, their revenue model is probably not just selling inference
It will be packaged solutions to enterprises to enable sovereign intelligence
Post-training as a service and managed private deployments
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I know the 3rd place match doesn’t matter but this is just an embarrassment
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As a parent, managing screen time is an ongoing battle
So every morning my Hermes agent sends a quiz to my older son, if he gets any questions wrong his daily screen time gets reduced
Evil dad!
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What’s the minimum cost to run inference for Kimi 3?
Yeah, we’re going to need way more compute and memory
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Reminder that just 18 months ago, the best models were:
OpenAI o1 was the leader among the closed source labs and Deekseek R1 had just released, otherwise best open weights was Llama 3.1 405B
Imagine 18 months from now
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Prediction: Anthropic will have to bend on all these points
> Anthropic limits sub plan use via external agent harnesses like Hermes
> Fable is nerfed on many topics
> Fable is limited in sub plan to 50% of usage + goes API only at $50/m output in 3 days if not extended
But we now have GPT 5.6 Sol and Kimi 3 plus others nipping on the heels
Competition is a helluva forcing mechanism
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Timeline this week:
Monday - Sol 5.6 ftw
Tuesday - back to Fable
Wednesday - back to Sol 5.6
Thursday - omg Kimi 3
Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings
SOL0.37%
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Let's talk about shared context layers, often referred to as "company brains"
To answer hard questions about your company like:
"what's true about X, since when, according to who, and where do accounts disagree?"
You need context that is a derived, citable fact layer over all your communications and documents
It's the system of record for what the company or organization "knows" which is different from the systems of record containing the outputs from work that is done
Jack in accounting knows why a vendor invoice was paid that didn't match the PO, whereas the accounting system just contains t
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I once has a boss who would often give the same assignment to 2-3 different people
It caused resentment across the team and was terribly inefficient
Agents have no such problem, and it costs next to nothing
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The sovereign intelligence flywheel:
open weights → post-train → evals → agent runtimes → trajectories back into post-training
The companies that make this easier and more accessible to enterprises will crush over the next 5 years
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I’ve gone the entire day without a
“🚨BREAKING: Someone just…” post
Feels good
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