During this period, whether it was the intraday Silk Road or the anticipated evening CPI, I’ve consistently maintained a bearish stance. You can look back at the market action and see for yourselves—Sanjin’s calls have stood up to scrutiny, and I’ve tried to help everyone avoid getting caught out. $XAU ‌

Profitable in backtests, losing in live trading: How do you tell whether it’s an execution problem or the strategy has stopped working?

Why can a strategy perform well on historical data, yet produce completely different results once real capital is committed?

When traders incur losses, their first reaction is often to change parameters, add indicators, or even scrap the entire strategy.

But the problem may lie at different stages. Making blind adjustments without identifying the cause may only make the strategy more and more complex.

I. Step one: Compare key backtest and live-trading metr

After their accounts incur losses, many traders’ first reaction is to make the money back as quickly as possible. But there’s a very important mathematical point that is often overlooked: the percentage loss and the percentage gain needed to break even are not symmetrical.

Suppose your account originally has 1,000 USDT.

If you lose 10%, your account is left with just 900 USDT. To get back to 1,000 USDT from 900 USDT, you need to make 100 USDT, which means a gain of about 11.11%, not 10%.

If you lose 20%, your account is left with 800 USDT, and you need a 25% gain to break even.

If you lose

What Does the Fed’s Delay in Cutting Rates Mean for Bitcoin, Gold, and U.S. Stocks?
Recently, expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy have once again become an important factor influencing global asset prices. Many investors are waiting for rate cuts, but what really matters is not when the Fed will cut rates, but why it is taking so long to do so.
If U.S. inflation remains above target or the labor market stays strong, the Fed may choose to keep interest rates elevated. High interest rates affect different assets through funding costs, liquidity, and investors’ risk appetite.
First, U.S. s

$ORCL Double weekly bullish divergence, an extreme bottom
As long as the company doesn't go bankrupt, this is the starting point for takeoff

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In cryptocurrency trading, many people know they should analyze rationally, yet when it comes time to place an order, they are often controlled by their emotions. When they see BTC rising rapidly, they fear missing out and can’t resist chasing the price; when they see it suddenly fall, they start to panic and rush to close their positions.

Why is trading so prone to emotional decisions?

First, fear of missing out. When the market suddenly becomes highly volatile, many people worry about missing a profit opportunity. They rush in without waiting for confirmation of a signal, often ending up b

Gold’s rebound from its low is unlikely to reverse the weakness! Highs are stepping down, with 4030–4000 in sight!

Gold in the Asian session probed lower again today, briefly falling to around 4026 in the morning before rebounding in choppy trading and moving back above 4058. It reached a high in the 4065 area (touching 4073 based on the New York gold price) and is currently trading between 4058 and 4067, up 0.5%–0.8% on the day. Overall, the pattern is one of “rebounding from lows, with the recovery capped.” But one point is clear: the highs of this rebound have stepped down from 4146 on Nov

$H That was a brutal plunge: -25.33%, 24h low of 0.0313, current price 0.0326, and trading volume of 15.6M. Here’s a simulation of today’s trading steps in a market maker’s voice: Early in the session, place small bids at 0.036 to make retail traders think support is solid; after 10 a.m., pull the buy orders and turn around to smash through 0.034, triggering stop-losses; accelerate the drop in the afternoon to 0.0313 and liquidate leveraged positions; then slowly buy back around 0.032 toward the close. The 15.6M volume shows that panic selling really came out, but there are signs of support bi

In BTC trading, many people see a candlestick with a long lower wick and assume buyers are starting to fight back and the price is about to rebound, so they rush in to buy the dip. But in reality, a long lower wick does not necessarily mean a trend reversal; it may just be a brief rebound during a downtrend.

So, how should you assess it?

First, look at where it appears. If a long lower wick forms near an important support level from earlier, it suggests that strong buying may have emerged after the price fell to this area, making the rebound signal relatively more meaningful. But if it appea

Both Longs and Shorts Are Being Liquidated—What Exactly Is Happening in the Market?
In crypto futures trading, there is a phenomenon that confuses many people: When the market is clearly rising, why are some traders still being liquidated? Even stranger, sometimes the price surges rapidly and then suddenly drops, triggering large-scale liquidations on both sides.
What exactly is causing this?
First, liquidations do not happen in just one direction. When prices rise rapidly, highly leveraged shorts may be forcibly closed due to insufficient margin; if prices then fall rapidly, highly leveraged

Is the Crypto Market Really Short on Money? Who Is Deciding the Next Bull Market?

The crypto market has continued to fall recently, and many investors have begun to believe that there is no longer any new capital entering the market. But I think a more accurate way to put it is that the market is going through a period of liquidity contraction, investors staying on the sidelines, and asset repricing.

To assess the next bull market, we need to focus on three sources of capital.

First, global liquidity. The Fed’s interest rate policy, the US dollar index, and the monetary conditions in major

How Should You Manage Position Size? How Can Scientific Position Sizing Control Risk and Deliver Steady Profits?

In cryptocurrency trading, many people study BTC's price direction every day but rarely seriously consider one question: even if you're right, how much capital should you invest?

In fact, many traders don't lose because they misjudged the direction, but because they mismanaged their position size.

Suppose your trading account has 1000 USDT. If you invest all your funds in every trade, a sudden market move could cause serious losses. Even if the market later moves as you expected,

BTC has been trading sideways for three days, with the price fluctuating within a range. Many traders are starting to feel anxious: should they go long or short?

In fact, one of the easiest mistakes to make in a sideways market is trying to predict the direction of a breakout in advance.

To assess a breakout, focus on three signals.

First, trading volume. When the price approaches the upper end of the range, a sustained increase in volume indicates rising market participation. But higher volume alone does not necessarily mean the price will rise; you also need to watch whether the price can

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Surviving in this market for ten years has never been about gambling on luck.
Every trade is timed to key levels: enter when it’s time to enter, exit when it’s time to exit; never hold on to losing positions or get caught up in a fight.
From small gains on hundred-point short-term trades to big profits on thousand-point swings, not a bit of the profit you should take is left behind.
In the end, trading comes down to discipline, risk management, and certainty in your decisions. $BTC $ETH #美国10月CPI全面超预期