HodlOrRegret

Channel stuffing

I won’t reply to anyone with no position who’s just here for gossip

I'm so fed up~~
I can share whatever information I want—what I say publicly or privately is up to me. If you don't like it, unfollow me already.
If you don't understand a post, ask me publicly. I reply to DMs too, don't I?
Those who got my DMs about InnoLight haven't come to thank me either!

From my perspective, at the current price, the only buy is $INTC; if people are hyping its other issues, then go all in and buy
Period

I hope this doesn't bankrupt me
I checked customer assets: 160b. 5.5b was stolen, so that shouldn't wipe me out, right

You can subscribe, but apparently you can’t unsubscribe…..

14A PDK 0.9 is more important than what I said we should be worried about earlier $INTC

Bibi got that many votes?!
Almost every Israeli I know hates him

July dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) now down to just Hammack
Warsh’s “unwilling and unable to call conditions tight” may itself signal that recent liquidity stress still weighed on the decision
Year end PCE should improve and ease some hiking pressure. A Dec hike would likely be the last—or at most the 2nd to last
ps: Cook, a traditional dove, bringing her personal beef with Trump into the vote was unprofessional

$MSFT capex came in below expectations, but it was attributed it to third party capacity delivery DELAYs rather than change in strategy
In addition, Azure growth and free cash flow was positive

Let me get my thoughts together and write a proper piece tomorrow. Just consider this one something I scribbled

I understand the big boss's way of thinking pretty well
If they can push the margin down to 15%, they absolutely won't leave it at 20%—what high margins? That's a “capitalist roader” way of thinking
They just don't have enough equipment

Do you know where the market’s biggest disagreement lies?
The market where compute is traded not only has a spot shortage, but is also in deep contango on the forward curve
Stock traders think spot prices are inflated, and the forward curve is in deep backwardation
I’ve never heard of such a large gap in expectations priced in historically
(Generally, once the market has a consensus expectation, it will directly hammer down the forward curve)
Buying compute vs. imagining compute—one of them will eventually fall

Because monkeys can't handle criticizing trading, middle school students are needed

Do you know how much a Goldman Sachs ops person makes a year?
A monkey could do this job, and sometimes they still mess it up
For the overall risk pricing model, you just click Run, then come over and berate trading. Maybe this job requires a middle schooler

Textile mills facing financing difficulties: cut machines or workers?

You won’t see token demand decline; with the AI bottleneck, you’ll see a wave of layoffs

@labubu_trader I previously heard that Hynix’s pricing had been driven down, but it turns out the problem was with Hynix itself.

Actually, my mindset is very calm in everyday life.
I remember Friday, June 12, meeting someone who was heavily leveraged and heavily invested in storage. I spent an hour explaining to him what a low PE bubble is and why the market would run short of money and need to buy CDS. The arguments were no different from what the bears are saying today. He laughed at me to my face.
Now I say AI is only 2–3 out of 10 of the way there, and it feels like every one of them has been thoroughly schooled by the bears. This weekend, I was laughed at to my face yet again.
Fine, then😑