GertVanLagen

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$BTC /M1 [2W]
4 attempts to break the 2017 top
4 successful tests as support 🔵
1 break of 2025 downtrend
Despite expanding M1, BTC keeps holding strong.
Exactly what it was designed to do.
Decentralized hedge works > more (institutional) demand > 🧨
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Treating U.S. policy as the decisive arbiter of a decentralized counter-institutional financial instrument is a category error.
It’s roughly like asking the gasoline industry to settle the question of electrification.
We don’t need institutions to make crypto work. Institutions increasingly need crypto to remain relevant.
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The case for a 25bp Fed hike is getting stronger.
Core CPI accelerated to 0.3% MoM vs 0.2% expected — inflation isn’t cooling fast enough.
Meanwhile, the economy isn’t asking for cuts:
📈 Payrolls +162K vs +56K expected
💼 Unemployment 4.1% (steady)
🏭 ISM Services 55.4 (economy expands strongly)
Sticky inflation + resilient growth = room to tighten.
Much of the inflation pressure is energy-driven. 🛢️
That makes geopolitics the big swing factor: solving the Hormuz problem could ease this oil-induced inflation.
bitcoin:native [2W] needs to reclaim $82.8K to print a new HH and confirm the C-leg of this Expanding Flat.
The 3rd wave was already extended, which dramatically increases the odds of a powerful, clean and impulsive 5th wave 🚀
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#DXY [2W] is hanging and has closed below the 2025 uptrend. After 4-5 rejections at the 100 level, chart and time are more than ready for final breakdown 📉
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$ETH [2W] has printed a higher high on the lower timeframe, breaking the 1-year downtrend. Holidays are over, waiting for ignition and full send.
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Altcoin market cap has printed its first higher high since the ATH.l - Breaking the 1-year downtrend from Aug 2025.
$BTC needs to break $82.8K to do the same.
If it does, market structure flips.🧨
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ALTCAP [2W] - Is bouncing from the bottom of the 2-year (!🥱) sideways range/handle.
A 2017 type of blow-off is still to be expected. Structure remained fully intact during cascade of retests.
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$BTC is mimicking the breakout above the red horizontal resistance from the 2022 bear trap bottom (❌) at the lower trendline of a megaphone structure.
Both megaphones target the $300k-$350k zone.
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$ETH continues to hold up very strong.
If bitcoin:native finally enters its blow-off phase toward ±$450K, I expect $ETH to reach the orange box.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, that would complete the expanding wedge with an impulsive C-wave.
Counterintuitive but interesting.
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Bitcoin Dominance has been going sideways for over a year since breaking its uptrend in 2025.
Time alone doesn’t change structure or targets.
The green zone remains the magnet. 🟩
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#DXY gets rejected for the 4th time at the 100.
Takes longer than anticipated, but the target remains patient.
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Risk-on sentiment strengthens as Russell 2000 prints ATH after ATH.
📣^📣 = ±$400k
#Bitcoin
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🟠$BTC is testing the lower blue trendline through
2018, 2020 & 2022 lows, confluent with the halving EMA/SMA.
Elliott Wave —> W-5 of W-(5) of W-⑤ next:
🎇 blow-off toward upper blue trendline (±$450K)
🎇 the finale of the 2009-born supercycle.
#Bitcoin
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Partial sun eclipse in The Netherlands 🇳🇱
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$ETH continues to respect the Expanding Diagonal - targeting the $12K–$20K orange box . 🟧
Nothing has changed: the cycle points to one final parabolic advance before the true bear market unfolds.
#Ethereum #bullmarket
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  • 5
$BTC [1M] is printing a third bear trap at the lower trend line of the rising channel since 2018 bear market bottom.
Blow-off wave (5) of ⑤ remains the primary anticipation, as long as price does not drop below ~$31k.
Target wave (5) has risen over time, currently at ~$400k.
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Inflation is cooling way faster than expected. Fed policy seems too restrictive at the moment.
📉CPI surprised to the downside.
📉PPI turned strongly negative.
The implications are straightforward:
↓ Inflation
↓ Fed Rate
↓ USD
↑ Global liquidity
↑ Bitcoin/Risk-on
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