CryptoPrincessYt

lol, just released it’s the middle of the night - I spend too long on the charts 🙈

The U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected, reducing the likelihood interest rate cuts. As a result, the market sold off. Nevertheless, market structure remains bullish while price holds above prior resistance, which is now acting as support. The first major test is

Conclusion: The crypto market often rhymes. Based on my research and the evidence currently available, the Realised Price is the next major level I am watching. Invalidation: A clean recovery above the 200-day SMA, a reclaim of the Golden Pocket area, and an improvement in

On-Chain Analysis: The next major level I am watching is Realised Price, currently around $53,663 Realised Price is an on-chain metric that comes directly from blockchain data. It represents Bitcoin’s average cost basis based on the price at which each BTC last moved on-chain.

TA Thread: Bitcoin Bear Market Thesis: Market Structure: In this bear market, I have been on the sidelines for nine months and have watched Bitcoin drop 51% without buying. My thesis has always been that I would not start re-entering the market until Bitcoin reached the

Market Structure As correctly identified in previous posts, the price action from 6th February to 1st June was a bear market rally. Bitcoin was rejected from multiple key levels, including the Golden Pocket, the 200-day SMA, and the top of the ascending channel and has now

Conclusion: It's now nine months since the all-time high in October 2026. Bitcoin has fallen 51%. I don't believe the bear market has bottomed, however, based on historical data, key moving averages, and risk management, this level is a good time to start looking into dca'ing

Current thesis: I do not believe the bear market has bottomed yet, but Bitcoin has reached an area that has historically been important for long-term accumulation. My current view is still that the bear market is more likely to bottom in Q4 2026, potentially around $40k.

Historical importance: In the 2014–2015 bear market, Bitcoin moved sideways around the 200-week SMA. In the 2018 bear market, Bitcoin bottomed at the 200-week SMA and then spent several months consolidating around it. During the Covid crash, Bitcoin briefly wicked below the

Historical TA Thread: I correctly identified we were in a bear market in November 2025, when most people were still bullish. Since then, I have said I would not start DCA’ing into the bear market until Bitcoin reached the 200-week SMA. The 200-week SMA is a historically

Bitcoin dominance has been moving inside a channel since Q4 2025, while stablecoin dominance has risen 101% since Bitcoin’s October 2025 ATH. At the same time, Bitcoin’s price has fallen around 25% since its rejection at the 200-day SMA, and around 51% from the ATH.

Observation: The chart is on the weekly timeframe, and the current weekly candle has not yet closed. Invalidation: BTC.D is one supporting signal, but higher Bitcoin dominance is not strictly necessary for Bitcoin’s price to rise. A confirmed recovery in Bitcoin’s price, with

Thread: Bitcoin Dominance vs Stablecoin Dominance | Weekly TF Bitcoin dominance and stablecoin dominance often move in opposite directions, and this has been clear over the last five weeks. Bitcoin dominance has fallen 5%, while stablecoin dominance has risen 27%.

Conclusion: This suggests the market is becoming more risk-off and defensive. Falling BTC dominance Rising stablecoin dominance BTC below the 200-day SMA = Bearish

5 - 2026 outlook: Finally, I still believe the long-term bear market bottom could form somewhere around the $40k region. This is based on the long-term cycle Fibonacci levels, amongst other things. I still hold the thesis that BTC could bottom around October 2026, based on the

TA Thread: Including: • Market structure • Indicators • Support levels • Historical data • On-chain data • 2026 outlook • Invalidation levels • Disclaimer On the Daily Timeframe:

3 - Support: The next major target is the 200-week SMA, currently sitting around $61,840. Bitcoin should have significant support around this region, especially with the 1.0 Fibonacci level sitting nearby at $59,930 A pause and/or bounce around this area would not be surprising,

2 - Indicator confluence The MACD remains below zero, the histogram bars are expanding negatively, the Stoch RSI is overbought and bearish, and volume remains low (which is understandable given that the S&P 500 is performing well). We have been discussing this scenario on the

1 - Market structure: Bitcoin was rejected from the 200-day SMA. BTC was also rejected from the Golden Pocket at the same time. Bitcoin had been inside an ascending channel since the local bottom on 5th February. Bitcoin has lost the 0.786 Fibonacci support level. This suggests

4 - Historically: A rejection from the 200-day SMA is something that has historically happened during bear market rallies. The 200-week SMA has acted as the floor during the 2011, 2014, and 2018 bear markets. BTC fell below the 200-week SMA briefly during the 2020 crash and