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China is showing strong recovery. The CSI 300 has pushed above key resistance, but the breakout still needs confirmation. Unlike the S&P 500, China remains below its 2007 ATH. Main drivers: • manufacturing • exports • infrastructure • state investment • tech/consumption

The MOEX Russia Index remains below its ATH (2021) & is showing a weakening structure making lower highs, with weaker price action compared to the S&P 500 & China’s CSI 300. Russia’s market remains heavily influenced by: • energy • commodities • geopolitics • sanctions

Thread The S&P 500 has reclaimed key resistance and pushed into fresh highs after correcting nearly 10% in Q1. The US rally is being driven heavily by: 🌸AI/tech 🌸Mega-cap companies 🌸Global capital flows 🌸ETF/passive investment flows 🌸Expectations around liquidity/rates

6) None of this guarantees Bitcoin must repeat history. Historically, reclaiming the 200-day SMA during bear markets has often been difficult, & failed attempts have led to deeper downside. Invalidation: a clean reclaim & hold above the 200-day SMA.

3) 2020 COVID crash During the 2020 COVID crash, Bitcoin briefly reclaimed above the 200-day SMA after initially losing it. However, the move failed and BTC still went on to fall roughly 55% into the crash low. This shows that even a reclaim needs confirmation.

4) 2018 bear market In the 2018 bear market, once Bitcoin lost the 200-day SMA, it attempted multiple times to reclaim it but failed each time. From the first failed reclaim attempt, Bitcoin went on to fall around 66% into the bear market bottom.

2) 2022 bear market In 2022, once Bitcoin lost the 200-day SMA, it didn't break above until it after the bottom was in. From the first rejection at the 200-day SMA, Bitcoin fell roughly 66% to the bear market bottom.

5) 2014 bear market In the 2014 bear market, Bitcoin briefly broke back above the 200-day SMA twice. But both moves failed and BTC still slipped deeper into the bear market. From the first break back above the 200-day SMA to the bear market bottom, Bitcoin fell roughly 78%.

Historical TA Thread: 1) Current market Yesterday, Bitcoin was rejected from the 200-day SMA. It is too early to say whether BTC is heading deeper into a bear market, or whether price can reclaim the 200-day SMA. Here's some historical context on possible outcomes.

2) 2022 bear market In 2022, once Bitcoin lost the 200-day SMA, it didn't break above until it after the bottom was in. From the first rejection at the 200-day SMA, Bitcoin fell roughly 66% to the bear market bottom.

Heatmaps: 3D (near liquidity), 2W (wider timeframe).

Thread: BTC is testing the 0.618 (golden ratio) level while also approaching the major 200-day SMA resistance zone. Volume remains low. Unless we have some strong bullish news, this could be near the end of the rally. Liquidity sits below price. Heatmaps: 3D & 2W below.

2 week

Is Bitcoin About to DUMP? Sell in May Analysis with Bill Noble

中本聪建立比特币时没有中央机构，也无需许可，所以不抱怨，只是指出：黑石和策略各持有4%的供应。
这意味着有8%被两个参与者掌控。
人们对此有何看法？

Bull market / bear market resistance bands Weekly Timeframe: Bitcoin has just narrowly closed the week above the band for the second week running = bullish. However, momentum & volume are both decreasing = caution/bearish My view: this still looks more like a rally.

Weekly Timeframe MACD lines are still below the zero line, so weekly momentum structure remains bearish MACD histogram is green & expanding, showing bullish momentum building Volume has reduced Bearish structure + lower volume but improving momentum = attempting recovery

Thread Daily TF The MACD lines are above the zero line, so broader structure is still bullish ATM The MACD histogram is red & momentum is slowing Price is still holding near the highs of this rally Volume is reducing Bullish trend + low momentum + low volume = pullback risk

Even though the 50-day SMA has turned bullish. Price is holding near highs on declining volume and weakening momentum as seen in the MACD rolling over. Suggesting low conviction rather than a strong trend - which is also supported by the sideways price action. #BTC #bitcoin