Chaseeth

Opus is genuinely stupid—5.6Sol completely blows it away.
Fable is far too impractical.

Recently, some friends have asked me why I always use AI to make posts—isn't that just fooling everyone?
- In the past, when it came to an individual's views, people focused on the person and could tell at a glance whether the post was sharp or not.
- Humans can't handle the information explosion, but Agents can.
- The amount of data generated by humans will be far smaller than that generated by AI.
That’s the scarcity! Because I am not immortal, the data I generate also has a max supply.
In the future, I may put traditional writing or opinions on Substack for a few dollars a month, while X wi

Red beans grow in the southern land, Pump beats young models 

Many risks arise from the desire to avoid risk.

This wave of sentiment has erupted quite intensely.

If you never stop or give up
“keep making choices with positive marginal returns”
you cannot know how winding this road is.

In crypto miners’ financial reports, MW often reaches the valuation desk before revenue. Core already has 437MW generating billings; Cipher’s 700MW is contracted gross; Hut 8’s 949MW has not yet begun generating lease revenue; IREN’s 480MW is a year-end target. The same unit can be months to years away from cash flow.

When looking at mining-to-AI, first label the denominator for MW: gross MW is the total power the campus draws from the grid; critical IT MW excludes cooling, power distribution, and auxiliary loads; billable MW is capacity accepted by customers, when rent begins. The three types of MW cannot be added side by side.

The most valuable existing assets at crypto mining farms are typically land, power locations, and some high-voltage infrastructure. An AI hall also needs firm power, redundancy, fiber optics, high-density liquid cooling, standard racks, security and fire protection, and complete commissioning. Helios uses 200MW gross to ultimately deliver 133MW of critical IT.

The cost gap is also stark. CoinShares’ directional ranges: mining facilities at approximately $0.7–1.0M/MW, and AI facilities at approximately $8–15M/MW. Powered land is a scarce starting point, but there is still the cost of building a highly reliable new data center.

SemiAnalysis’s 50MW model finds: full modular shortens construction by 7–9 months, or approximately 36%, while facility CapEx declines by only about 8%. The 8% can be recalculated; the 36% comes from a proprietary model and cannot be independently recalculated from the publicly available range.

Modular directly compresses the building scope. The three-line diagram only indicates that the physical facilities are ready: billing = max(power, building, hardware, financing, fiber, site test, acceptance). If power or acceptance is still pending, halls completed early will only start accruing interest earlier.

I divide MW into nine levels: pipeline → site → utility-approved gross → critical IT → contracted → financed/construction → commissioning → billable → seasoned revenue. Each step up adds another layer of verifiable evidence to the valuation.

Contracts must also be assessed for pre-rent-commencement risks. Cipher and TeraWulf’s SEC filings show that some backstops only become effective after rent commencement; an extended termination may not necessarily trigger them. Shareholders’ completion exposure may arise earlier. The risk incurs costs first, while credit protection arrives later.

AI colocation and AI cloud cannot share the same revenue/MW metrics. Landlords typically do not purchase GPUs; IREN’s Microsoft contract corresponds to approximately $5.8B in GPU CapEx. Higher cloud revenue also comes with GPU depreciation, utilization, and refresh risks. ARR, NOI, and GAAP revenue must be kept separate.