AlphaExtract

MCI doing MCI things again. Whether used as a standalone or, my preferred approach, as an amplifier - it continues to be one of our most reliable systems. March rewarded discipline. Congrats to those who followed the systems and added spot when it mattered.

Not every asset moves with oil. Knowing which ones do - and which ones don't - is where the edge is. The matrix below shows the 12-month rolling correlation of key stocks and commodities to Brent crude, paired with their 3-month price change from Feb 11 to May 11. The E&P names

bitcoin:native's fair value band now sits around $77k - a level that could easily be retested if/when we get a breather. That would still qualify as a healthy pullback, imo. A daily close below $78.4k, however, would have me revisiting the thesis. For now, letting spot bags do

Not gonna lie, this is a pretty cool way to help visualize your risk going into a trade

You daily reminder that technical analysis is not a forecasting tool. It's a decision-making framework built around probabilities and risk. Treat it otherwise, and it becomes no different than drawing lines in a sandbox.

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We've added the On-Chain Projection Map as a live indicator inside the Alpha Extract Charts tab. It combines Kalman fair value, on-chain market state, and 4,000 simulation paths to map BTC's fair value gap and forward projection range in real time. Here's what it is saying

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$BTC is testing the upper bound of the Probable Range Bands - a level that tends to work well in ranging conditions. The caveat: this system is not designed for strong trends. If a higher-timeframe trend is starting, the bands will likely expand and follow price higher instead

$BTC continues to grind higher, and while sentiment is turning turbo bullish, this is a reminder that price is still auctioning around a key S/R level. Reactions around the 80k level, even if not immediate, will likely be very important. Spot bags? Still no strong indication to

Global liquidity recently declined by ~$1.7 trillion (~1.15%), largely driven by increased bond market volatility. What's interesting is the momentum. After hitting its lowest level in nearly four years, we are now seeing very early signs of stabilization. If this continues,

Insane value from Luckshury here, imho. Grab a notebook and actually go through this one.

Oil has entered a phase of increased volatility since March, steering away from the stability seen in months prior to it. This isn't about one single narrative. It reflects conflicting 'forces' at play: tightening supply risks on one side, fragile global demand on the other.

Gold is looking oversold on our Probable Range Bands. Yet both daily and weekly structure suggest a lower high may be forming - closely resembling previous highlighted setup. Context matters. Oversold inside weakening structure is often continuation, not reversal.

Global liquidity fell by 0.69% this week. Not a collapse, but not an expansion either. And that is the signal. Liquidity remains elevated (~$144.8T), but momentum keeps weakening. This is what a transitional macro environment looks like: - plenty of liquidity - no directional

Our BVRS - Trend Component has flipped long. Lower timeframe structure on $BTC still looks weak, but this is exactly why mixing systems across timeframes leads to bad decisions. Each system has its own context. Respect it.

Quietly watching intraday price action using a fixed range volume profile here. Failure to push through both VAH and weekly resistance around UTC midnight, combined with continuous closes below PoC, typically sets up a high-probability move toward VAL.

Bitcoin's liquidity-driven fair value increased significantly since end of March, jumping up to 78k now - and yet, BTC is still struggling to break above. The question is: do we continue to range and drift back towards range low, or do we break out and start trending? Important

The On-Chain Trend Map is designed to answer one question: is Bitcoin's price trend being confirmed by internal on-chain structure, or is the move losing support underneath the surface? It does that by compressing several on-chain inputs into one trend score rather than relying

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