AlphaExtract

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Global liquidity momentum is starting to pick up again. We were right to assume momentum was stalling before another move higher. The past few months have been rough, though. China appears to be tightening after a very strong start to the year, while bond market volatility has
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Published a new indicator on TV last night and it blew up, even before sharing it here. 757 boosts and counting, wow! - Order Block Matrix Trade Engine We built it for in-house trading, but ended up deciding to share it. Link below.
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What do you see on this chart?
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Our On-Chain Trend Map is still improving, but confirmation is not here yet. The latest reading sits around 33.5, keeping the model in Base Building. That matters because the score has steadily lifted out of the prior Bear Trend zone - but remains below the level required to
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MCI doing MCI things again. Whether used as a standalone or, my preferred approach, as an amplifier - it continues to be one of our most reliable systems. March rewarded discipline. Congrats to those who followed the systems and added spot when it mattered.
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Not every asset moves with oil. Knowing which ones do - and which ones don't - is where the edge is. The matrix below shows the 12-month rolling correlation of key stocks and commodities to Brent crude, paired with their 3-month price change from Feb 11 to May 11. The E&P names
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bitcoin:native's fair value band now sits around $77k - a level that could easily be retested if/when we get a breather. That would still qualify as a healthy pullback, imo. A daily close below $78.4k, however, would have me revisiting the thesis. For now, letting spot bags do
BTC0.53%
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Not gonna lie, this is a pretty cool way to help visualize your risk going into a trade
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You daily reminder that technical analysis is not a forecasting tool. It's a decision-making framework built around probabilities and risk. Treat it otherwise, and it becomes no different than drawing lines in a sandbox.
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Direct link to the chart:
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We've added the On-Chain Projection Map as a live indicator inside the Alpha Extract Charts tab. It combines Kalman fair value, on-chain market state, and 4,000 simulation paths to map BTC's fair value gap and forward projection range in real time. Here's what it is saying
BTC0.53%
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Oops, forgot the other screenshot
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$BTC is testing the upper bound of the Probable Range Bands - a level that tends to work well in ranging conditions. The caveat: this system is not designed for strong trends. If a higher-timeframe trend is starting, the bands will likely expand and follow price higher instead
BTC0.53%
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$BTC continues to grind higher, and while sentiment is turning turbo bullish, this is a reminder that price is still auctioning around a key S/R level. Reactions around the 80k level, even if not immediate, will likely be very important. Spot bags? Still no strong indication to
BTC0.53%
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Global liquidity recently declined by ~$1.7 trillion (~1.15%), largely driven by increased bond market volatility. What's interesting is the momentum. After hitting its lowest level in nearly four years, we are now seeing very early signs of stabilization. If this continues,
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Insane value from Luckshury here, imho. Grab a notebook and actually go through this one.
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Oil has entered a phase of increased volatility since March, steering away from the stability seen in months prior to it. This isn't about one single narrative. It reflects conflicting 'forces' at play: tightening supply risks on one side, fragile global demand on the other.
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Gold is looking oversold on our Probable Range Bands. Yet both daily and weekly structure suggest a lower high may be forming - closely resembling previous highlighted setup. Context matters. Oversold inside weakening structure is often continuation, not reversal.
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Global liquidity fell by 0.69% this week. Not a collapse, but not an expansion either. And that is the signal. Liquidity remains elevated (~$144.8T), but momentum keeps weakening. This is what a transitional macro environment looks like: - plenty of liquidity - no directional
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