0xbit

Every time I’m absolutely certain about my own logic, I end up losing money!
This shows up in bottom-fishing and selling at the top—I always want to buy at the absolute bottom and sell at the absolute top.
This is what it means to ignore risk and bet on being 100% right.
If I don’t change this way of thinking, I may never achieve big results!

Aug. 14–Sept. 14, the Federal Reserve suspended $10 billion in monthly bond purchases, which amounted to balance-sheet reduction in disguise.
On Sept. 15, the U.S. August CPI data will be released; then on Sept. 16, the interest-rate meeting will determine the September rate policy.
Even if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, internal disagreements within the Fed will most likely intensify further.
On Sept. 17–18, the Bank of Japan will hold its interest-rate meeting, with a 25-basis-point hike highly likely; moreover, the market has now begun to expect that the BOJ may shift t

After researching a whole range of stocks,
I suddenly realized how to make money investing—invest in things you truly understand!

Is gold still worth investing in over the next 3–4 years?
First, let’s establish a timeline—3–4 years.
Why this timeframe? Because it represents a complete cycle for the next BTC cycle.
During the 2022–2025 cycle, BTC rose sixfold.
Even if the gains diminish in the next cycle, a 3–4x increase should still be considered a reasonable range.
Can gold still rise 3–4x over the next 3–4 years?
Review of the logic behind gold’s rise
From 2022 to 2025, gold rose approximately 2.5x in about three years.
The main driving force: After the Russia-Ukraine war, Europe and the United States froze Russia’s ov

There is a saying in China’s culinary world:
Officials eat Shandong cuisine, merchants eat Cantonese cuisine, literati eat Huaiyang cuisine, and peddlers and laborers eat Sichuan and Hunan cuisine.
Do you think it makes sense?

There is a saying in China's culinary world:
Officials eat Lu cuisine, merchants eat Cantonese cuisine, literati and refined gentlemen eat Huaiyang cuisine, and peddlers and laborers eat Sichuan-Hunan cuisine.
Do you think it makes sense?

For a company that has been making continuous losses but operates in a high-growth industry, how should you judge the right time to enter?
Taking AI as an example: if you view an AI company as a 10-year marathon, then:
First 3 kilometers: the market looks for revenue growth.
Middle 4 kilometers: the market looks for technical moats, data accumulation, and economies of scale.
Last 3 kilometers: only then does the market require stable profitability and free cash flow.
So, profitability is not the starting point for a stock price rally—it’s the endpoint that confirms the business model has succe

Cathie Wood’s investment philosophy:
Before there is a winner in the sector, buy the entire sector.
The current AI sector is exactly like that—everyone has always been optimistic about the prospects, but it’s hard to say who will be the final winner.
Deng Yongping also seems to be betting on AI using this logic.

In that round of small bull market during the pandemic,
Ge Weidong turned a 7x return from Tibet Pharma; however, over the 3 years after he bought in, the stock basically didn’t rise much at all—if anything, it even dipped slightly.
In this AI bull market,
Ge Weidong then turned over 10x on GigaDevice.
He started buying this stock in 2018, and for the first more than 6 years, he was still underwater—he not only didn’t sell, he kept adding to his position along the way!
His holdings are public, but very few people have that kind of patience and determination!
As Buffett said, the re

Started in the crypto circle, but cannot be limited to just the crypto circle.
Crypto exchanges are beginning to penetrate traditional stocks and commodities;
As a trader, how can you only focus on cryptocurrencies!

Most of the time in the crypto world is garbage time!

The emergence of AI has changed the valuation logic of the market!
Anthropic recently released a "bug hunter" model called Claude Mythos, which finds that the cost of discovering software vulnerabilities has basically become zero.
This changes the valuation logic of "cybersecurity" stocks.
Their valuation logic is:
1. Software inevitably has vulnerabilities, and security services and patches are necessary.
2. Human security experts are scarce, so their services can be sold at high prices.
As soon as this model was released, cybersecurity stock prices plummeted, with declines rangin

Recent market movements once again confirm: gold is a safe-haven asset, while BTC is a risk asset, even more volatile than U.S. stocks (especially the Tech 7 giants). The sharp decline in gold and silver is due to market makers actively shorting for hedging purposes and leverage unwinding; the drop in cryptocurrencies like BTC mainly reflects the collapse of macro liquidity and the failure of rate cut expectations. The only thing that could boost the crypto market is the Fed's liquidity injection, but this expectation was shattered with the announcement of the new hawkish Federal Reserve Chair