The rate hike has just landed, and October #加息 is coming again?
September’s 25bp rate hike was just the first step💪
CME data shows👇
🔺 Another 25bp hike in October: 49.8%📈
⏸️ Rates held at 3.75%-4.00% in October: 50.2%
There is almost no disagreement📊
And the three changes cited by Warsh are👇
The economy and employment are stronger than expected
Inflation has yet to return to 2%
Geopolitics is changing the economic outlook
So the market may be facing not a one-off 25bp hike, but a more difficult question:
If “higher rates for longer” becomes the core of pricing again, can assets whose valuations were previously lifted by liquidity expansion maintain their former prices?
What do you think? Share your views in the comments👇
September’s 25bp rate hike was just the first step💪
CME data shows👇
🔺 Another 25bp hike in October: 49.8%📈
⏸️ Rates held at 3.75%-4.00% in October: 50.2%
There is almost no disagreement📊
And the three changes cited by Warsh are👇
The economy and employment are stronger than expected
Inflation has yet to return to 2%
Geopolitics is changing the economic outlook
So the market may be facing not a one-off 25bp hike, but a more difficult question:
If “higher rates for longer” becomes the core of pricing again, can assets whose valuations were previously lifted by liquidity expansion maintain their former prices?
What do you think? Share your views in the comments👇

