TAIL To PGK：Convert Tail (TAIL) to Papua New Guinean Kina (PGK)

# Today's Prediction Market Spotlight: Where Is the Capital Flowing?

The most popular prediction events on Polymarket reveal three major themes driving capital allocation: cryptocurrency price narratives, the trajectory of macroeconomic interest rates, and asymmetric bets on tail-risk events.

Why Is Wintermute’s CEO Holding ETH Against the Trend? The Long-Tail Logic Behind Ethereum as a Cultural Bet

Wintermute’s CEO has made it clear that the firm holds ETH long-term for its “culture and meme” value. This article takes a deep dive into the structural logic behind this stance, examines the disconnect between price and fundamentals, and explores potential evolutionary paths for Ethereum’s future.

Depth as a Moat: How Gate Futures Trading Is Redefining Liquidity Standards for 2026

Gate’s liquidity strategy isn’t about “matching the 0.01% spread of mainstream coins.” Instead, it focuses on providing actionable liquidity for long-tail assets—those that are either untradeable or suffer from significant slippage on other platforms.

Ethena: USDe's Tail Risks Analysis and Key Metrics to Monitor

Gate Ventures Research Insights: The Emergence of Long-Tail Assets and How On-Chain Liquidity Is Transforming Centralized Exchanges (CEX)

<ul> <li><p>Looping loans have become a core strategy in DeFi, fueling the growth of lending infrastructure platforms while phasing out protocols unable to keep pace with market trends.</p> </li><li><p>Euler Finance has surged on both fundamentals and token price thanks to its EVK framework, which lets anyone deploy lending vaults. Looking ahead, rolling out RWA (real-world asset) lending could be another major driver.</p> </li><li><p>Aave saw steady growth in the first half of the year, driven by the launch of USDe and PT-USDe, the activation of the Umbrella mechanism, and the cross-chain issuance of its GHO stablecoin.</p> </li><li><p>Lido Finance’s revenue model projects strength on the surface, and the sector’s ceiling could be lifted by increasing institutional demand from Wall Street for ETH staking yields.</p> </li><li><p>Jito began demonstrating impressive momentum in Q2 2025, leveraging its MEV infrastructure, leading position with jitoSOL, and the expected growth of restaking applications built on its platform.</p> </li></ul> <h2 id="h2-5YCf6LS35Y2P6K6u55qE6LS555So5p2l5rqQ77yf">How Do Lending Protocols Generate Revenue?</h2><p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/9921c096922eddcd73a0c56957bee39abedb007c.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>Most lending protocol revenue comes from the total interest paid across all borrowing positions—whether open, closed, or liquidated. This interest income is divided proportionally between liquidity providers and the protocol’s DAO treasury.</p> <p>When a borrowing position breaches its preset loan-to-value (LTV) limit, liquidators can step in to execute the liquidation. Each asset class carries a specific liquidation penalty, and the protocol acquires collateral, which is then auctioned through mechanisms like Fluid’s “liquidity liquidation.”</p> <h2 id="h2-5LuOIEFhdmUg55qE6LSi5Yqh5oql6KGo6IO955yL5Yiw5LuA5LmI77yf">What Does Aave’s Financial Report Reveal?</h2><p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/8167815f7620e2b8c5da042f23fd2782c4ce5f06.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>The <a href="https://github.com/aave" title="&#64;aave" class="at-link">@aave</a> protocol peaked in fees and revenue at the outset of the year, followed by a gradual decline alongside broader market corrections. In my view, the rebound after May is largely attributable to the rollout of USDe and PT-USDe, which fueled this cycle’s robust looping demand, powered mainly by Pendle’s PT assets and Ethena’s stablecoin.</p> <p>At PT-sUSDe’s debut, nearly $100 million in supply was immediately deposited into the Aave market.</p> <p>The Umbrella mechanism, activated in June, has since attracted approximately $300 million in funds for deposit insurance. Meanwhile, Aave’s native GHO stablecoin has seen cross-chain issuance continue to rise (with ~$200 million now in circulation), and its cross-chain use cases are expanding steadily.</p> <p>Thanks to these tailwinds, Aave achieved a major breakthrough in July:</p> <p>- Net deposits topped $4.8 billion, ranking first across all protocols.</p> <ul> <li><p>June protocol net profit soared nearly fivefold month-over-month, hitting around $8 million.</p> </li><li><p>By price-to-sales and price-to-earnings ratios, Aave is still undervalued relative to its sector peers.</p> </li></ul> <p>With this growth trajectory and mature product offering, Aave is poised to attract more traditional institutions as a preferred DeFi platform. Across fee revenue, TVL, and profitability, Aave is positioned to reach new highs and reinforce its leadership in the DeFi sector.</p> <h2 id="h2-5LuOIENvbXBvdW5kIOeahOi0ouWKoeaKpeihqOiDveeci+WIsOihsOiQveeahOW+geWFhu+8nw==">Are Compound’s Financial Statements Showing Early Signs of Decline?</h2><p><a href="https://github.com/compoundfinance" title="&#64;compoundfinance" class="at-link">@compoundfinance</a> is an established lending protocol but lacks Aave’s flexibility regarding asset support and market responsiveness. While Aave keeps up with trends by supporting various restaked and staked ETH (rETH, ETHx, cbETH), staked BTC (lBTC, tBTC), and Pendle’s PT assets, Compound does not support any of these assets.</p> <p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/e9c321e9321e61fcc6c40f100a3e385cf922ca4f.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>This limited asset support means Compound’s lending strategies are basic and lack looping and composability, resulting in lower user engagement and capital efficiency. Financially, Compound has posted ongoing losses from early 2025 to present, with net protocol earnings between –$110,000 and –$250,000, while its token price has dropped about 40%.</p> <p>Looping strategies now underpin DeFi, with new protocols such as <a href="https://github.com/EulerFinance" title="&#64;EulerFinance" class="at-link">@EulerFinance</a>, <a href="https://github.com/MorphoLabs" title="&#64;MorphoLabs" class="at-link">@MorphoLabs</a>, and <a href="https://github.com/SiloFinance" title="&#64;SiloFinance" class="at-link">@SiloFinance</a> offering sophisticated leverage and composability. Compound’s failure to address these new use cases is causing it to lose a core segment of the mainstream DeFi lending market.</p> <p>Compound’s TVL has grown just 0.46% over six months, protocol revenue hasn’t meaningfully improved, and the gap with <a href="https://github.com/Aave" title="&#64;Aave" class="at-link">@Aave</a> keeps widening. This trend highlights Compound’s lag in product upgrades and ecosystem integration. Without faster expansion of supported assets and features, Compound risks further marginalization in DeFi lending.</p> <h2 id="h2-RXVsZXIg55qEIFRWTC8g5pS25YWlIC8g5biB5Lu36YO95pyJ5pi+6JGX5aKe5bmF">Euler’s TVL, Revenue, and Token Price Show Dramatic Growth</h2><p><a href="https://github.com/eulerfinance" title="&#64;eulerfinance" class="at-link">@eulerfinance</a> stands out for letting any developer or protocol use its EVK (Euler Vault Kit) framework to create custom vaults within the Euler credit ecosystem. This fits perfectly with mainstream looping strategies, enabling lending for long-tail assets and greatly increasing project revenue potential and user engagement.</p> <p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/ee858ce1544500e076a6361676004666a020f1ff.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>After listing PT-USDe—the market’s largest looping asset—in April, Euler saw monthly protocol revenue and TVL surge about 72% and 42%, respectively.</p> <p>For the first half of the year, Euler was among the top protocols for TVL and active lending growth, with TVL up 800% and active lending up a staggering 1,160%—a breakout performance.</p> <p>The project has aggressively partnered with projects offering airdrops and incentive programs (for example, <a href="https://github.com/TurtleDotXYZ" title="&#64;TurtleDotXYZ" class="at-link">@TurtleDotXYZ</a> and <a href="https://github.com/Merkl_XYZ" title="&#64;Merkl_XYZ" class="at-link">@Merkl_XYZ</a>), riding the wave of incentive points and airdrop tokenomics to further boost deposit and borrowing through user rewards.</p> <p>This strategy got results: protocol fees rose from $100,000 to $450,000, and the token price surged roughly 200% in the same period.</p> <p>As a modular, composable, and permissionless credit infrastructure, EVK’s potential is only beginning to be realized. If the team can successfully bring another hot sector—real-world assets (RWA)—into the Euler lending framework, TVL growth could become exponential.</p> <h2 id="h2-Rmx1aWQg5oqA5pyv5aOB5Z6S5bim5p2l5Z+65pys6Z2i5aKe6ZW/5LmQ6KeC">Fluid’s Technical Moat Drives Optimistic Fundamentals</h2><p><a href="https://github.com/0xFluid" title="&#64;0xFluid</a> is a new and fast-rising lending protocol—second only to Euler in growth—with TVL up about 53% year-to-date, now nearly on par with Euler. Its rapid ascent stems from novel lending mechanisms and exceptional capital efficiency.</p> <p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/f58e0f6783c135ee14507caa54fd167eeb6ea157.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>Its biggest technical edge is “smart collateral” and “smart debt.” Users can directly collateralize LP tokens (like ETH/wstETH, USDT/USDC), and the borrowed debt is issued as a self-adjusting LP token pair rather than a single asset. After borrowing, debt is deployed to liquidity markets, where it can generate yield for users, effectively reducing borrowing costs.</p> <p>This significantly lowers borrower interest expenses, with Fluid’s lending rates generally undercutting traditional models. Fluid’s average maximum LTV is higher than Aave’s, while its liquidation penalty is just 3% (Aave’s is 5%), offering capital efficiency similar to Aave’s e-mode.</p> <p>Fluid also comes with “one-click looping” support built into the frontend, making it easy to use ETH as collateral, borrow stablecoins, and then re-collateralize—ideal for large depositors seeking steady returns.</p> <p>Aave was among Fluid’s early backers, investing $4 million in FUID tokens and helping onboard Aave’s GHO stablecoin into Fluid pools—a strong vote of confidence in Fluid’s model and its competitive growth potential.</p> <p>Protocol revenue climbed modestly from $790,000 to $930,000 in the first half of the year, reflecting healthy finances. The token price dipped, largely due to weak tokenomics and no clear buyback program, despite strong protocol performance. Enhancing value capture remains a key opportunity.</p> <h2 id="h2-6KKr6KqJ5Li6IEVUSCBCZXRhIOeahCBMaWRvIOi0ouWKoeaKpeihqOihqOeOsOWmguS9lT8=">How Does “ETH Beta” Lido Stack Up Financially?</h2><p><a href="https://github.com/LidoFinance" title="&#64;LidoFinance</a> currently boasts about 8.8 million ETH staked, worth roughly $33 billion—about 25% of all staked ETH and 7% of total network ETH. It’s the sector’s largest ETH “holding” protocol (with sharplink at ~440,000 ETH, bitmine at ~833,000 ETH).</p> <p>As the “ETH staking leader,” Lido is widely seen as ETH Beta, but the project has faced a fundamental challenge since launch: in its five-year history, it has never turned a profit for the core team.</p> <p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/291578d2bf43398e3b5b6640e80283728e18ebb4.jpg" alt=""></p> <p>To understand why, we need to break down the financial details.</p> <p>Staking rewards distributed to holders: Lido simply aggregates ETH from retail users, sets up validator nodes, and then pays out staking rewards on a pro-rata basis.</p> <p>In short, Lido doesn’t keep much of the staking reward itself. For example, in 2024, Lido earned $1.034 billion in staking rewards, of which $931 million was paid out to stakers—matching its 90% payout to stakers, 5% to node operators, and 5% to the DAO treasury.</p> <ul> <li>Cost of Revenue: Node operator rewards and slashing penalties, with slashing costs covered by Lido.</li><li>Liquidity Expense: Fees paid to provide liquidity to LPs.</li><li>Operational Expense: The LEGO Grant and TRP (Token Rewards Plan) are two key funding initiatives—LEGO backs community and developer proposals, and TRP rewards core DAO contributors.</li></ul> <p>Lido has made progress on the cost side, cutting liquidity expenses to ~$8.5 million in 2025 and trimming operating costs by about 20% annually since 2023. With revenue surging 88% in 2023 and 67% in 2024, and expenses declining, net losses fell sharply (–66%/–93%), dropping to just ~$2 million this year.</p> <h3 id="h3-TGlkbyDnmoTmnKrmnaXotbDlir/vvJ8=">Lido’s Outlook: What’s Next?</h3><p>Calling the earnings of an “ETH staking leader” disappointing may be too harsh, but it’s clear costs are falling every year. So why the persistent losses? The 10% protocol fee is industry standard and unlikely to change.</p> <p>The only real variable is the sector’s size—total ETH staked. The ETH staking rate remains lower compared to Solana, Sui, Avax, and ADA. The biggest potential catalyst may be institutional demand for ETH staking, with firms like BlackRock seeking to add staking functionality to their iShares ETH ETF.</p> <p>If institutional adoption arrives, ETH staking could become a new source of revenue for these players, generating yield from their ETH holdings. If the largest platform is Lido (or potentially Coinbase, or institution-backed projects like Puffer), the sector’s growth ceiling opens further. However, as the staking rate climbs, the protocol reward rate will be squeezed.</p> <p>Some in the DAO have proposed launching tokenholder income sharing to boost LDO’s utility and long-term value. But this would further cut protocol revenue, potentially harming future growth. A “surplus-sharing” program, as proposed by others, may be a more sustainable solution.</p> <h2 id="h2-Sml0byDni6znibnnmoTmlLblhaXmqKHlvI8gLSBNRVYg5bCP6LS5">Jito’s Distinct Revenue Model: MEV Tips</h2><p><a href="https://github.com/jito_sol" title="&#64;jito_sol</a> leads the SOL staking sector, with headline financials much stronger than those of Lido. jitoSOL currently stands at ~16 million SOL, about 23% of all staked SOL.</p> <p>SOL’s staking rate is already among the highest for any Layer 1 (67.18%). Notably, since October of last year, Jito has introduced foundational liquid restaking infrastructure, which enabled the growth of new restaking services and VRT (Vault Receipt Token) providers, including <a href="https://github.com/fragmetric140" title="&#64;fragmetric140</a> and <a href="https://github.com/RenzoProtocol" title="&#64;RenzoProtocol</a>.</p> <p>Liquid restaking is Jito’s core growth engine. Currently, only about 1.1 million SOL is restaked—just 6% of jitoSOL and 2% of all staked SOL. For context, ETH’s restake/stake ratio stands at 26%, so there’s plenty of room for SOL and for Jito to capture share.</p> <p>Let’s break down Jito’s key income and expenses:</p> <p><img src="https://s3.ap-northeast-1.amazonaws.com/gimg.gateimg.com/learn/fea608192b1a6062950bda77028e4347c60af5f9.png" alt=""></p> <ul> <li>Bug Bounties: Paid to white-hat hackers who find and responsibly report security vulnerabilities.</li><li>Liquidity Mining Incentives: Rewards for providing JitoSOL or VRT liquidity on DeFi platforms like Orca and Jupiter.</li><li>Restaking Grants: Funding for developers in the Node Consensus Network (NCN) ecosystem to build, deploy, and maintain restaking infrastructure.</li><li>Interceptor Fees: Anti-arbitrage mechanism freezing JitoSOL for 10 hours if held by certain external protocol users; an early withdrawal incurs a 10% fee.</li><li>JitoSOL Fees: 4% management fee on staking and MEV rewards (after validator commissions), or about 0.3% per annum on user SOL (7% APY x 4%).</li><li>Tip Routers: MEV tips accumulated each epoch are distributed via the TipRouter, with 3% of MEV transaction tips taken as protocol fees—2.7% to the DAO treasury, 0.15% to JTO stakers, and 0.15% to jitoSOL holders.</li></ul> <h3 id="h3-5omA5Lul4oCm5ZyoIGppdG8g55qE6LSi5Yqh5oql6KGo6KeC5a+f5Yiw5Z+66YeR5Lya55qE5LuA5LmI562W55Wl77yf">What Strategies Stand Out in Jito’s Financial Statements?</h3><p>Liquidity incentives have been Jito’s biggest expense, with costs jumping in Q2 2024 and remaining at $1–$3 million per quarter since then.</p> <p>This results mainly from JIP-2 and JIP-13, which allocate $JTO for incentives in DeFi applications (chiefly on @KaminoFinance). Since Q2 2024, jitoSOL revenues have clearly risen, likely due to improved DeFi looping—driving more demand for jitoSOL and, in turn, greater staking income.</p> <p>From 2025, the Foundation plans to allocate another 14 million JTO (~$24 million) to support restaking and related DeFi activities, aiming to boost VRT adoption.</p> <p>By Q3 2025, some 7.7 million JTO had been distributed as incentives. The impact is clear—quarterly income in 2025 has increased by 36%, 67%, and 23%, outpacing incentive outlays and confirming these are positive-EV investments.</p> <p>On revenue, jitoSOL fees and Tip Router are Jito’s top sources. Since Q4 2024, propelled by a Solana meme trading frenzy, network volume has spiked and Jito has been the main beneficiary.</p> <p>At its peak, Jito’s tips made up 41.6%–66% of Solana’s Real Economic Value (REV). Since Q2 2025, Tip Router revenue has exceeded jitoSOL fees, underscoring Jito’s MEV infrastructure moat. Solana traders and arbitrageurs are willing to pay tips for priority—an economic structure rare among public blockchains.</p> <p>Explosive growth in Solana network activity, leading MEV infrastructure, jitoSOL’s sector dominance, and the rise of restaking applications have together fueled a 57-fold jump in net profit to ~$5 million in Q2 2025. Even without the meme hype of 2024’s “pump.fun” era, a maturing SOL restaking sector could provide Jito’s next major catalyst.</p> <h3 id="h3-5aOw5piO77ya">Disclaimer:</h3><ol> <li>This article is republished from [<a href="https://www.techflowpost.com/article/detail_27495.html">TechFlow</a>], copyright held by the original author [<em>chingchalong02</em>]. For republication concerns, please contact the <a href="https://www.gate.com/questionnaire/3967">Gate Learn</a> team for prompt resolution per our process.</li><li>Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not constitute investment advice.</li><li>Other language versions of this article have been translated by the Gate Learn team. Do not reproduce, distribute, or plagiarize any translated content without proper attribution to <a href="http://gate.com/">Gate</a>.</li></ol>