#GateIPOAccessAnthropic

Two different questions are getting mixed together around this listing. First, is the company priced sensibly at its IPO range? Second, is a USDT intent subscription a good way to get shares? I’ll take them one at a time, using the public filing and the product terms.

Question one, the company

The filed range is $70 to $78 for 825 million shares, ticker ANT on Nasdaq. Pricing is reported for November 18 and first trade for November 19, though the filing itself sets no date. The fully diluted value runs from about $1.26 trillion to $1.4 trillion, or roughly $920 billion to $1.02 trillion on the basic share count.

From the filing, third quarter revenue was $16.96 billion, up 47% from the second quarter and about 12 times a year earlier. The quarter swung to an operating loss of $567 million after a profit of $974 million, mainly because short term compute costs more. Compute was about 58% of revenue, up from 48%. The net loss of $23.3 billion is mostly a non cash revaluation of convertible notes, so I don’t read it as cash burn. Liquidity was reported at $146.6 billion.

What makes me pause is $895 billion of compute and lease commitments. That is about 13 times annualized third quarter revenue, by my math.

What has to be true

On the fully diluted range, the price is about 19 to 21 times annualized third quarter revenue, by my math. To bring a $1.3 trillion value down to 10 times revenue, the run rate would need to grow about 1.9 times. At 15 times, it would need about 1.3 times. That is possible if growth continues, but the filing also shows about $600 million of quarterly revenue lost to price cuts, so pricing pressure is real. And the last private round in February was at $380 billion, so $1.4 trillion is about 3.7 times that in nine months.

One more reported detail is a $26 billion private placement at the IPO price with seven companies, including major chip suppliers. Some will call that circular. I see it as both a demand signal and a link between suppliers and customer that deserves attention.

Question two, the route

This is an intent subscription, not a guaranteed purchase. Your allocation is your share of total subscriptions multiplied by Gate’s allotment. As a hypothetical, if demand is ten times the shares available, a 1,000 USDT order fills about 100 USDT and the rest comes back.

The fee is 5% on cumulative amounts up to 50,000 USDT and 10% above that. It is charged only on a successful allocation and is included in your subscription amount. That means 1,000 USDT buys about 950 USDT of stock at the IPO price. To break even, the stock needs to rise about 5.3% above that price. In the 10% tier the hurdle is about 11.1%, and for an 80,000 USDT order the blended fee is 6.875%.

For 1,000 USDT in the 5% tier, a 10% first day gain nets about plus 4.5%, a flat open nets minus 5%, and a 10% fall nets about minus 14.5%. Those are my calculations.

If you get nothing, funds are returned with no fee and a 10% annual subsidy is paid. On 1,000 USDT over about five days that is roughly 1.4 USDT. The subsidy is not paid below 0.5 USDT, which needs somewhere around 260 to 365 USDT depending on how long funds stay locked.

Other fine print

Funds are locked during the window, which runs from November 12 at 11:00 to November 17 at 17:00 UTC+8 and can close early. If the final price lands within 20% of the reference price, allocation happens automatically. I’d check which number counts as the reference, because 20% above the top of the range would be about $93.6. Borrowed funds, sub accounts and institutional accounts are not supported. Shares are expected around November 19 with no lock up, and first trading usually starts with a price discovery period.

For a base rate, one recent mega listing rose about 19% on day one and was roughly half off its peak by late July, per one report.

My take: the company side is a growth against commitments argument that I can’t settle for you. The route side is arithmetic. The fee means you need a pop just to break even, and a partial fill is likely. I’d only subscribe an amount I’m fine with seeing partly filled and fully exposed to day one swings.

Not financial advice.

Would you judge this IPO on revenue growth or on the size of the commitments? And does a 5% fee change whether you’d subscribe at all?

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