#美国10月CPI即将公布 #每周来晒 Tonight’s 21:30 CPI data will determine whether rates are raised in December

As Wednesday is the U.S. Veterans Day holiday, the U.S. cash bond market will be closed that day. The closely watched October U.S. CPI report will be released a day early, at 21:30 Beijing time on November 10, and is the key indicator in determining the Federal Reserve’s December rate decision.
It is also the last CPI report before the Fed’s December meeting. If inflation cools significantly, Monday’s rebound may receive fresh support. If inflation remains stubbornly hot, the tech stock optimism that has just returned could come under pressure again.
Headline CPI month over month: Market expectations have fallen sharply to 0.3% (0.6% in September)
Core CPI month over month: Market expectations have declined to 0.2% (0.3% in September)
Note that October CPI will not include year-over-year data because the U.S. federal government shutdown last October led to missing CPI data. Also note that tonight’s focus should not be just the initial reaction to the data released at 21:30; it is also important to watch whether the market maintains the same direction after U.S. stocks open at 22:30.
In mid-September, the Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, but chose to pause in October. In its policy statement, the central bank acknowledged that “inflation remains elevated,” but said that “more information” would help it determine the right policy to bring inflation back to its 2% target and “maintain price stability.”
Federal funds futures pricing currently puts the probability of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points in December at around 80%, close to fully priced in.
October’s nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (165k jobs added, unemployment falling to 4.1%, and hourly wages up 0.4% month over month), meaning employment is no longer a constraint on rate hikes; CPI will be the final decisive factor in whether rates are raised in December.
Several senior Fed officials have recently sent hawkish signals: San Francisco Fed President Daly, St. Louis Fed President Musalem, and New York Fed President Williams have all stressed that inflation remains elevated and price levels need to be pushed down further.
Most institutions say that even if inflation eases slightly, the Fed is still likely to raise rates at next month’s policy meeting. Measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, overall inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% policy target.
Natixis chief U.S. economist Christopher Hodge wrote: “With inflation sticky above target and the labor market remaining stable, we believe there is a case for another rate hike in December. While a reading in line with expectations would be encouraging, it would not stop the Fed from raising rates.” The outlook for Fed policy and inflation will become less clear next year. Hodge believes the stable labor market is not putting upward pressure on inflation through wage growth, while supply-side pressures such as tariffs and the Iran conflict are also expected to ease. He expects the Fed to enter an extended pause in policy tightening starting next year.
Wells Fargo believes that softer core data would be welcome after September’s unexpected increase, but it would not change the broader picture that 2026 will be a failed year for bringing core inflation back to 2%. The report is expected to reinforce the view that disinflation is slow and uneven, supporting our expectation that the FOMC will raise rates again in December.
The market broadly expects price indicators to show a slowdown, but not to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. However, with oil prices having recently retreated, the urgency of tightening policy next year may ease.