As of November 10, ETH is trading around $2,130. With a daily decline of 4.36%, it is hovering near the lower bound of its 24-hour range, which spans from $2,065 to $2,227. This movement is not unique to the crypto market; it is intertwined with broader macroeconomic developments that shape global risk appetite.

Market attention is currently focused on the U.S. inflation data for October, due to be released on Tuesday. This figure is critical as it serves as the final inflation reading before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 8–9. Following strong employment data released last week, the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Fed in December has climbed to around 80%. Consequently, if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in above expectations, it would likely strengthen the case for a rate hike, push bond yields higher, and exert pressure on risk assets. Conversely, if the data falls below expectations, the market may find some relief.

Beneath this price action lies an interesting divergence. U.S. spot Ethereum funds saw net outflows exceeding $365 million during the week of November 2–6—a trend that has persisted for six consecutive weeks. The institutional side remains cautious.

Meanwhile, there are reports that large-scale wallet holders have been accumulating ETH, with an estimated $19 million worth purchased at an average cost of $2,245. In short, while one side is trimming its positions, the other is accumulating. Only time—not the current price—will reveal which side is correct. If institutional outflows cease while accumulation continues, the landscape will shift; however, if institutional outflows persist and accumulation also comes to a halt, selling pressure will intensify. For now, both sides are playing their own respective strategies.

From a technical perspective, ETH has slipped below its short-term support zone, which lies between $2,221 and $2,208. The next key reference point is the 200-day moving average, currently at $2,156. While the price is not yet below this level, it is approaching it. For long-term investors, this moving average acts like a compass: remaining below it signals weakness, while staying above it suggests a recovery.

On the downside, the first stop is $2,065—the 24-hour low—followed by the psychological level of $2,000. A sustained close below this mark would shift the cautious outlook toward a more negative scenario. On the upside, the $2,220–$2,230 range serves as a short-term hurdle. Beyond that lies $2,385—a level that previously acted as support but turned into resistance after being broken. In the event of a recovery, $2,425 appears to be the initial target.

This data point is not merely an inflation figure; it is the key to the Federal Reserve’s decision in December. With employment data coming in strong, the Fed has more breathing room. If inflation also proves stubborn, a rate hike in December will likely be priced in as a near-certainty—a development that would push the dollar and bond yields higher, while weighing on stocks and cryptocurrencies.

However, there is another side to the coin. Gasoline prices remained flat in October, and oil prices declined; therefore, a cooling in the headline inflation figure would not be particularly surprising. The real focus should be on core services, specifically rent and travel-related costs. If these areas continue to soften, the market will likely find relief; if not, selling pressure will intensify. Consequently, on Tuesday, it will be more important to examine the individual components rather than just the headline number.

The short-term outlook remains cautious ahead of the inflation data, with a limited range for movement. For the bullish scenario, the trigger is clear: a close above $2,220 accompanied by strong volume. Should this occur, it creates the potential to test the $2,385 level. However, unless the price can sustain itself above $2,385, any upward movement will remain merely a corrective phase.

For the bearish scenario, the threshold is equally clear: a decisive breakdown below $2,065 will intensify selling pressure. A daily close below $2,000 would significantly alter the outlook, bringing the $1,963 level into play. In short, this week, it is less about what the price is "saying" in the moment and more about which levels it closes above or below. It is not about a single candle; the closing levels will tell the real story.

For ETH, a medium-term recovery signal depends on the price holding above $2,385. Until this level is cleared, any upward moves should be interpreted as corrections. This may sound rigid, but in weeks like this, a rigid approach serves as a safeguard. Building up positions ahead of data releases is essentially an attempt to predict the outcome; it is far healthier to prepare for the data rather than try to forecast it.

In practical terms: do not make hasty decisions before Tuesday at 16:30. Keep these key levels in mind: $2,065, $2,000, $2,220, and $2,385. Once the data is released, look at the subsequent closes rather than the initial reaction. If inflation cools, both stocks and crypto will find some breathing room; if it comes in "hot," both will face similar downward pressure. This week, the winner will not be the one who moves the fastest, but the one who thinks the most clearly.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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