#美伊谈判出现新进展
My market outlook: This situation serves as a potentially bullish signal for Bitcoin and U.S. stocks; however, it does not necessarily imply a bearish outlook for gold. The key distinction here is whether the diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran will lead to a lasting de-escalation of geopolitical tensions, or if it will merely create a temporary sense of optimism.

I view this as a transition from a market driven by geopolitical risk to one focused on inflation, interest rates, and liquidity.

1. What might happen next?

Asset Potential direction Primary driver
Crude oil Reduced supply risk in the Strait of Hormuz
Gold Balance between safe-haven demand and lower inflation
Bitcoin Increased risk appetite and liquidity
U.S. stocks Lower energy costs and reduced inflationary pressure

2. Bitcoin: The strongest "risk-on" opportunity

Bitcoin could benefit from the following three developments:

* A decline in oil prices may alleviate inflationary pressure.
* A drop in inflation expectations could, over time, create room for monetary expansion.
* A reduction in geopolitical uncertainty may encourage institutional investors to increase their risk appetite.

However, there is an important caveat: a fall in oil prices does not automatically mean that interest rates will also decline.

For instance, stronger-than-expected employment data could lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain a "hawkish" (pro-tight monetary policy) stance, even if energy prices fall.

Therefore, my outlook for Bitcoin is "conditionally" bullish; This is particularly likely in a scenario where the dollar weakens, U.S. Treasury yields fall, and liquidity increases.

3. Gold: Do not underestimate its resilience

Gold’s reaction is especially noteworthy.

On November 9, spot gold rose by approximately 1.2% to $4,112.90 per ounce. Despite a decline in geopolitical concerns, falling oil prices and a weaker dollar provided support for gold.

This highlights an important point:

Gold is not merely a hedge against geopolitical risks. It also responds to factors such as:

* Real interest rates.
* The strength of the dollar.
* Demand from central banks.
* Inflation expectations.
* Investor positioning.

Consequently, gold may remain strong even if the immediate risk premium related to the Middle East diminishes.

4. Crude oil: The Strait of Hormuz as a decisive factor

The scale of a potential supply recovery is quite significant. In 2025, approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz—accounting for roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade.

However, there is a key issue: diplomatic optimism is not the same as the restoration of maritime transport capacity.

As of November 9:

* Trump is scheduled to meet with the Prime Minister of Qatar.
* Qatar continues to mediate negotiations.
* U.S. officials have indicated that significant disagreements persist.
* A comprehensive agreement has not yet been reached. Therefore, if maritime transport returns to normal, there could be a sharp drop in oil prices; however, a renewed escalation in tensions could quickly reverse this situation.

5. Three scenarios to watch

Scenario BTC Gold Oil
Peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
Negotiations continue without an agreement
Renewed military escalation

A key market signal: On November 9, Brent crude was trading at $97–98 per barrel, following a decline of approximately 16% the previous week. This suggests that some optimism is already priced in, though supply risks persist.

6. My preferred investment approach

Rather than aggressively betting in a single direction, I prefer to follow a strategy contingent upon unfolding conditions:

* BTC: Instead of chasing geopolitical headlines, I would look to buy gradually once a technical strengthening is confirmed.
* Gold: Maintain a position as a form of portfolio insurance.
* U.S. Equities: Look for opportunities if bond yields and the dollar begin to weaken.
* Cash: Keep liquidity on hand in case negotiations fail and markets reverse course.

If diplomatic progress leads to a genuine normalization in the energy market and an easing of financial conditions, I believe the medium-term outlook for Bitcoin and U.S. equities could be positive.

However, I would not be in a rush to abandon gold entirely.

The greatest opportunity lies not in predicting whether peace will be achieved; ...might be observing how markets reshape their pricing when expectations shift.

The three indicators I will be watching most closely are:

* Brent crude oil: Is the decline sustainable?
* U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Dollar Index: Are financial conditions easing?
* Bitcoin: Is BTC staging an upward breakout accompanied by rising trading volume?

If these three developments converge, the thesis for a broader recovery in risk assets would be significantly strengthened.

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