#美国10月CPI
The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for October, set to be released on Tuesday, November 10, 2026, could serve as a critical test for the Federal Reserve (Fed). While current forecasts point to a slight slowdown in monthly inflation, the overall inflationary landscape remains challenging.

The key distinction here is that even a lower-than-expected CPI reading might not be sufficient to revive expectations for interest rate cuts. Recent employment data have reinforced the view that the Fed should maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.

1. What are the markets expecting?

According to the latest forecasts:

Indicator September October (Forecast)
Headline CPI (monthly) +0.60% +0.24%
Core CPI (monthly) +0.30% +0.20%

The anticipated slowdown is believed to stem, in part, from more moderate increases in gasoline prices and a decline in the prices of both new and used vehicles.

2. Why might the Fed remain cautious?

Three factors complicate the inflation outlook:

* Strong employment: In October, non-farm payrolls increased by 165,000, surpassing the expectation of 65,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

* Energy prices: Previous surges in oil and gasoline prices continue to filter through to consumer costs and transportation expenses.

* Persistent inflation: Despite an expected slowdown in monthly price increases, annual inflation is projected to rise from 3.7% to 3.9%.

Additionally, there is an important note regarding the data release: due to a data gap caused by the government shutdown last year, the annual CPI figures for October will not be published. Since this could conflict with other estimates for the annual inflation rate, it is necessary to check the official methodology provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) before interpreting this figure.

3. Three possible scenarios for the markets

CPI Result Potential impact on the Fed
Below expectations Could revive expectations for interest rate cuts
In line with expectations The Fed will likely remain cautious
Above expectations Could strengthen expectations for a further interest rate hike

Based on current market data, the probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike in December is priced at approximately 78%–81%.

4. What should investors watch for?

Key indicators for November 10

CPI release

08:30 New York time

Most significant market reactions

* U.S. 2-year Treasury yield – expectations regarding Fed policy.

* U.S. Dollar Index – potential strength or weakness of the dollar.

* Gold – sensitivity to real yields and monetary policy.

* S&P 500 and Nasdaq – reaction to shifting interest rate expectations.

5. Conclusion

The October report presents an intriguing tension: while monthly inflation may decline, core inflation and economic resilience could prevent the Federal Reserve from moving toward interest rate cuts.

The critical question is not merely whether the headline CPI will fall, but rather whether core inflation, services, and broader price pressures will show a sustainable moderation.

A lower headline inflation figure, coupled with "sticky" core inflation, may not be sufficient to prompt a shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance.

My assessment: Investors should be particularly cautious about interpreting a modest slowdown in the CPI as an immediate signal of monetary easing.
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