#USAIStocksHitHard

#美股史诗级抛售 #美股史诗级抛售 #ShareWeekly $NVDA $AMD $SPX
Thursday’s selloff is being called either “the end of the AI trade” or “just profit taking”. The numbers say neither. The cleanest way I can read it is to split the AI trade into three layers and look at what each one did.

What happened

The Nasdaq fell 5.5% into correction territory, the S&P 500 fell 4.4%, and the Dow dropped about 1,833 points. The semiconductor index fell about 12%, one of its largest one day drops on record. Nvidia lost 9%, which wiped out around $447 billion of value. AMD and Micron each fell about 17%, and Broadcom lost 10%. Data center operators dropped more than 14%. The day before, the Dow had jumped 3% on election relief, so Thursday erased all of that. The Nasdaq ended the week down 3.4%, its fourth weekly loss in a row.

Layer one, the suppliers

Chips and data center names fell roughly two to four times as hard as Meta, one of the biggest spenders, which dropped about 4%. That gap matters. Suppliers get paid on the speed of the buildout. If construction slows, even years from now, the timing of their revenue moves, and rich valuations shrink fast. AMD is a good example. It guided to about 66% revenue growth on Tuesday, then fell 17% two days later, and its CEO said she doesn’t see chip demand slowing soon. So this looks like multiples shrinking on timing risk, not demand collapsing. Not yet, anyway.

Layer two, the spenders

The buildout is paid for with a lot of borrowing, and December hike odds near 80% make that money more expensive. On top of that, reports say a Democratic Congress could tighten rules on data centers, and one report says voters backed limits in 40 of 41 local measures. Worries about spending also came before the election, since the Nasdaq 100 was already in correction on Monday. The big spenders fell less because they have other businesses to cushion them.

Layer three, the applications

The popular idea is that money will rotate from chips to the companies that earn money from AI. I like the logic but I’m not treating it as a clean escape. Palantir’s new contract growth slowed to 6% even as revenue nearly doubled, and Apple guided margins lower because of memory costs. Cost pressure reaches the application layer too.

The recovery math

To undo Thursday, Nvidia needs about 10% and the chip index about 14%. AMD and Micron need about 20%, because a 17% fall needs a 20.5% gain. The Nasdaq needs about 6%. Friday’s bounce took only small bites out of that.

Levels from my charts

Nvidia sits at 187.49, only 0.3% above support at 186.92, with RSI near 32. Above it are 208.04 at 11.0% higher, 212.73 at 13.5% higher and 219.83 at 17.3% higher.

AMD sits at 450.71, with support at 416.36, which is 7.6% lower, and RSI near 40. Above it are 490.48 at 8.8% higher, 502.64 at 11.5% higher and 535.79 at 18.9% higher.

For both, the first big resistance is a cluster of moving averages that used to act as support. That is typical after a break.

My take: I see this as a repricing of timing and cost, not demand, but the market hasn’t proven that yet. I’m not calling a bottom. I’d want Nvidia closing back above 208 and AMD above 490 before I trust a recovery. The next tests are tomorrow’s inflation report and earnings from CoreWeave on Tuesday, then Nebius and Cisco on Thursday.

Not financial advice.

Where do you see the next opportunity, chips, tech giants or something else? And do you think this is a pause in the AI cycle, or a slower and more expensive version of it?

@Gate_Square