周四，随着民主党横扫美国国会后AI基建速度放缓的担忧愈演愈烈，美股科技股遭遇历史性暴跌，纳斯达克综合指数跌入回调区域。
历史经验显示，短期内市场可能会面临更多抛售压力，但三个月后，往往会迎来修复行情。
以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数单日暴跌5.52%，创下2025年4月美国总统特朗普宣布“解放日”关税政策以来的最大单日跌幅，并较上个月创下的历史高点回落11%。
在华尔街，任何超过10%的跌幅都被定义为“回调”，而如果跌幅达到20%，则会被视为进入“熊市”。芯片股周四全线暴跌，成为当天跌幅最惨重的板块之一。iShares半导体 ETF（SOXX）下跌12%，创下了自2020年3月新冠疫情爆发以来的最差单日表现。费城半导体指数暴跌12.25%，触及六个多月低点。
据估算，纳斯达克综合指数成分股市值当日缩水2.5万亿美元，科技七巨头合计蒸发约1.04万亿美元。

以史为鉴：短期或面临更多抛压！
回顾过去十年的10次回调行情，2025年、2022年、2020年和 2018年回调发生后的一个月内，市场都遭受了进一步的抛售。
不过，除2022年之外，纳斯达克指数在所有其它回调后的六个月内均重回上涨模式。
总体而言，从回调触底算起，纳斯达克指数在随后的三个月内平均上涨9.41%，六个月内平均涨幅更是高达17.03%。2022年1月的那轮回调是最为惨烈。该指数在随后的六个月内又跌去18.3%，一年内跌幅更是达到24.3%。

引发本轮回调的导火索是民主党在周二的中期选举中横扫众议院和参议院。
民主党还在德克萨斯州等多个美国数据中心“重镇”取得了重大胜利。吉娜·伊诺霍萨（Gina Hinojosa）赢得德州州长竞选，其竞选主张包含立即暂停数据中心建设。投资者目前正在权衡，州层面更严格的限制是否会放缓数据中心的建设，从而给与人工智能（AI）交易相关的公司带来压力。

CappThesis的创始人Frank Cappelleri从过去的中期选举周期中寻找线索，发现短期内市场可能会迎来更多波动。这位图表分析师表示，自1974年以来的 13 个中期选举周期中，有12次选举后12个月内纳斯达克指数都实现了上涨。“需要注意的是，这一过程可能会充满波动，”他称。
Cappelleri指出，以 2018 年为例，当时在民主党赢得众议院控制权的第二天，纳斯达克指数曾出现反弹。尽管该指数随后在12月经历了大幅抛售，但选举后一年内仍上涨了约15%。

ThisIsTranslateContent:2026-11-06 01:38:33

#Gate股票畅聊季 #WCTCS9 Historic crash in U.S. tech stocks: What history tells us about what comes next?

On Thursday, as concerns intensified that AI infrastructure buildout would slow after Democrats swept Congress, U.S. tech stocks suffered a historic selloff, sending the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory.
Historical precedent suggests markets may face more selling pressure in the short term, but often see a recovery rally three months later.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 5.52% in a single day, its biggest one-day drop since U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, and fell 11% from the record high it hit last month.
On Wall Street, any decline of more than 10% is defined as a “correction,” while a 20% decline is considered entry into a “bear market.” Chip stocks plunged across the board on Thursday, making them one of the hardest-hit sectors of the day. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 12%, its worst one-day performance since the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, hitting a more than six-month low.
The Nasdaq Composite’s constituent stocks are estimated to have lost $2.5 trillion in market value that day, while the Magnificent Seven tech giants shed about $1.04 trillion combined.

History offers a guide: More selling pressure may lie ahead in the short term!
Looking back at the 10 correction episodes over the past decade, markets saw further selling within a month of the corrections in 2025, 2022, 2020, and 2018.
However, except for 2022, the Nasdaq returned to an upward trend within six months of every other correction.
Overall, measured from the bottom of a correction, the Nasdaq gained an average of 9.41% over the following three months, and an average of 17.03% over six months. The correction in January 2022 was the most severe. The index fell a further 18.3% over the following six months, and was down 24.3% over a year.

The trigger for this correction was the Democrats’ sweep of the House and Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Democrats also scored major victories in several U.S. data center “hotspots,” including Texas. Gina Hinojosa won the Texas gubernatorial race, with her platform including an immediate pause on data center construction. Investors are now weighing whether tighter restrictions at the state level could slow data center construction, putting pressure on companies tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.

Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, looked to past midterm election cycles for clues and found that markets may see more volatility in the short term. The chart analyst said that in 12 of the 13 midterm election cycles since 1974, the Nasdaq rose in the 12 months after the election. “It’s important to note that the process may be volatile,” he said.
Cappelleri noted that in 2018, for example, the Nasdaq rallied the day after Democrats won control of the House. Although the index then saw a sharp selloff in December, it was still up about 15% in the year following the election.

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HighAmbition2 hours ago

Who's your Creator of the Year? 🏆

HighAmbition2 hours ago

Who's your Creator of the Year? 🏆