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How much did external and internal factors contribute?
The trigger came from U.S. stocks: AI and semiconductor stocks plunged, the Nasdaq fell 5.52%, and Bitcoin broke below $76,000.
Leveraged liquidations amplified the losses: Around $1.1 billion was liquidated in 24 hours, more than 90% of it from long positions.
Spot buying was weak: ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive days, totaling around $1.157 billion.
Leverage is still rising: With spot trading subdued and futures leverage increasing, the same shock could drive a sharper drop.
For now: wait and see; don't rush to buy the dip
Those with large positions: Sell some into a rebound and reduce leverage first.
Those looking to add: Buy small amounts in batches rather than going all in at once.
Reserve funds: Keep waiting; there's no need to fear missing out.
Signals of a recovery
1. ETFs see net inflows for several consecutive days, with significant amounts.
2. The Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index stop falling first.
3. Bitcoin holds $75,000–$76,000 and stops making new lows.
So far, ETFs have seen only one day of modest inflows, and institutions have yet to converge on adding positions. For now, it's better to wait and see, and act once the three signals above appear. $BTC