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My view: Yes, Bitcoin’s current cycle is following a different trajectory; however, this is not yet sufficient to confirm the onset of a stronger bull market. I remain cautiously optimistic, but I prioritize concrete confirmation over historical comparisons.
What do the technical indicators tell us?
As of November 3, 2026:
* On the day of the U.S. midterm elections, BTC was trading at approximately $76,990.
* Its 200-day moving average stood at roughly $73,169.
* This means BTC is trading about 5.2% above its long-term average.
* At the same time, however, BTC remains below its 50-day moving average, which is around $81,900.
This last point is significant: while the long-term structure remains intact, short-term momentum is weak.
Three scenarios
1. Bullish scenario
Bullish
BTC maintains the $73,000–$74,000 range, reclaims the $80,000 level, and ultimately pushes above $82,000.
This would strengthen the thesis that a new uptrend could be underway.
2. Consolidation
Neutral
BTC trades between $73,000 and $82,000, allowing the market to digest macroeconomic uncertainties and shifts in ETF inflows and outflows.
3. Bearish scenario
Bearish
BTC falls below its 200-day moving average and fails to reclaim that level. This carries the risk of a deeper correction.
Conclusion
One should not automatically assume that 2026 will repeat the patterns seen in 2014, 2018, or 2022.
There are significant differences in terms of institutional participation, spot ETFs, liquidity, and market structure. However, the breakdown of historical patterns does not automatically signal a bullish outlook.
The most critical levels I am watching are $73,000, $80,000, and $82,000. Rather than buying simply because Bitcoin is trading above its 200-day moving average, I would prefer to see it reclaim the $82,000 level accompanied by strong volume.
The question is: Will BTC be able to turn the $80,000 level into support and kickstart a new uptrend, or will this prove to be yet another temporary recovery?
This is the true test of whether this cycle is genuinely different.
$BTC