Trump says he could lose both chambers at once

On the last night before the election, Trump said something rarely heard during a speech at the Lincoln Memorial: “No matter who is president, the sitting president’s party just can’t win midterm elections, but we’ve given it everything we’ve got.” CNN reported that he was more direct with allies in private: the worst-case outcome—Democrats taking both the House and the Senate—was quite likely. He has already been discussing with people around him how to respond to congressional investigations, and even impeachment hearings.
The markets are betting the same way. Prediction markets put the odds of Democrats taking the House at about 95%, and their chances of taking the Senate at 70% to 80%.
If he loses both chambers, his crypto business could be the first target of investigations
The majority party’s biggest weapon in Congress is subpoena power: it can compel witnesses to testify and force the production of documents. Democrats on the House Financial Services and Oversight committees, as well as the Senate Banking Committee, have said that if they regain control, the Trump family’s crypto business will be a major target of investigation.
They are primarily looking into three things:
World Liberty Financial: The Trump family’s crypto company. While Justin Sun was being sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), he invested a total of $75 million in its tokens. The SEC later requested a pause in its case against him. There are also reports that a member of the UAE royal family secretly bought a 49% stake in the company. Trump said he didn’t know about it: “My sons are running it.”
USD1 stablecoin: This stablecoin was issued by World Liberty. A fund with Abu Dhabi ties used USD1 to complete a $2 billion investment in Binance, meaning the money flowed back into the Trump family’s business.
$TRUMP meme coin: Trump-affiliated entities hold 80% of the total supply and reportedly made about $100 million from trading fees alone, while the buyers’ identities remain entirely undisclosed.
The core questions Democrats want to investigate are whether there was any quid pro quo and whether foreign money used cryptocurrency to influence the U.S. president.
What this means for crypto
Once investigations begin, legislation will take a back seat. TD Cowen believes that if Democrats take both chambers, the crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, will be all but certain not to pass in the next two years. The Senate could also block nominations to the SEC, CFTC, and FDIC, the three core crypto regulatory agencies. The crypto industry spent more than $200 million this election cycle trying to prevent this outcome. That money may have been wasted.
However, many analysts also caution that the election result has largely been priced in by the market. Bitcoin was still hovering around $77k on Tuesday. Liquidity and institutional money will remain the key factors determining Bitcoin’s long-term direction.
The real question is: once a subpoena actually lands at World Liberty’s door, can the crypto world still stay this calm?
#美国中期选举今日投票