The Week’s Main Theme: Earnings Reports or Macro Clarity?

The first trading week of November brings an unusually high level of intensity to the market agenda. On one hand, we have earnings reports from tech giants such as Apple, Palantir, AMD, Supermicro, Qualcomm, and Arm; on the other, the U.S. midterm elections and the October employment report are converging on the same calendar week. This presents investors with a natural dilemma: should they focus on company-specific narratives, or wait until the macro-level uncertainty clears? There is no single "correct" answer to this question; however, breaking down the week’s events may help in making more sound decisions.

Apple and Palantir: The First Test of a New Era

Following the close of U.S. markets on Monday, November 2, Apple will release its financial results for the fourth quarter of its 2026 fiscal year—the first earnings report under the leadership of new CEO John Ternus, who took the helm in September. Market expectations point to earnings per share of approximately $1.99 and revenue of $113.4 billion, representing a 10.7% year-over-year growth. Beyond the headline figures, key areas to watch include the trajectory of iPhone demand, the momentum of services revenue, and the potential impact of rising memory costs on gross profit margins. Palantir will also report its earnings on the same day; the primary focus will be on the extent to which its AI-driven enterprise software narrative is reflected in concrete financial data. AMD and Supermicro: The Next Chapter in the Data Center Story

On Tuesday, November 3—coinciding with the U.S. midterm elections—AMD will release its latest earnings. Market expectations point to revenue of approximately $13 billion (a 41–42% year-over-year increase) and earnings per share of $1.95 (a 62.5% year-over-year increase). However, the real focus lies not in the past quarter’s figures, but in management’s outlook for the future. Insights into demand for EPYC server processors, the performance of Instinct AI accelerators, and potential easing of supply constraints will serve as indicators for the sustainability of the data center narrative. Supermicro will also report its earnings on the same day; how demand for AI servers translates into concrete orders and revenue will offer a broader perspective on the industry's trajectory.

Election Day and the Market: Pricing in Uncertainty

The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 are a critical variable for financial regulation and the investment climate, as they will determine control of Congress. The market has largely priced in the possibility of a shift in the House of Representatives, while control of the Senate remains uncertain. The potential impact of the election outcome on AI investments and data center regulations is a key point of interest for technology stocks. In this context, it is important to view the election result not as a definitive "indicator of direction," but rather as a source of uncertainty. It is an understandable reflex, from the perspective of market psychology, for many investors to adopt an "clarity first, positions later" approach until the outcome becomes clear.

Qualcomm and Arm: Two Different Faces of the Chip Ecosystem

The earnings reports for Qualcomm and Arm are scheduled for Wednesday, November 4. Qualcomm will be evaluated based on its position in the mobile chip market and its performance in growth areas such as automotive and the Internet of Things (IoT), while Arm will be assessed on the resilience of its chip design licensing model in the age of artificial intelligence. These two reports may offer insight into the broader landscape of the semiconductor sector—encompassing not just the data center segment, but also edge devices and the licensing ecosystem.

Employment Report: The Path to the Fed’s December Decision

At the end of the week, on Friday, November 6, the U.S. employment report for October will be released. Economists anticipate an increase of 60,000–65,000 in non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. This data carries particular weight as it serves as the final employment reading before the Federal Reserve’s meeting on December 8–9. On October 28, the Fed held its policy interest rate steady in the 3.75%–4.00% range; however, the fact that two members voted for a rate hike has shaped market expectations for December. Should the employment data come in stronger than expected, a repricing of interest rate expectations could follow—a factor that might increase volatility across both stock and crypto markets. Looking at the broader picture for the week, corporate earnings reports provide concrete substance to company-specific narratives, while elections and employment data shape the macroeconomic framework. The convergence of these two layers within the same week makes it more valuable to adopt a holistic perspective rather than placing excessive weight on any single data point.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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