#USMidtermsEnterFinalStretch 🧐

The Fate of Congress to Be Decided on Tuesday

The U.S. midterm elections have reached the final stretch. On Tuesday (November 3), voters will head to the polls to decide the fate of all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 seats in the 100-member Senate; additionally, gubernatorial elections are taking place in 36 states. So far, more than 51 million Americans have already cast their ballots—a figure that speaks volumes about the level of interest in this election. At the heart of the discourse are the familiar, perennial issues: the cost of living, energy prices, tariffs, and the economy. In short, this is an election that touches the wallets of everyone, from Wall Street to Main Street.

A Market-Focused Perspective: What Do the Polls Say—and What Do They Miss?

The latest polling data is clear: Democrats lead in national surveys and have gained an edge in critical Senate races in states like Michigan, Maine, Texas, and Kansas. Prediction markets currently price the probability of the House of Representatives flipping to the Democrats at over 90%, with a lower, though still significant, probability for the Senate. However, I must add a note of candid perspective: polls are merely snapshots, not forecasts. We have all witnessed the lessons of 2016 and 2024. So, what is at stake? It comes down to who will hold the pen when it comes to economic policy—taxes, spending, and trade. And for the markets, policy is defined less by rhetoric and more by the actual "text" that gets written into law. Crypto Is an Inevitable Part of This Election: A $200 Million Stake

An interesting fact: one of the largest collections of single-issue super PACs in history during this election cycle comes from the crypto sector—with over $200 million spent. So, what does the industry want with all this money? Clarity. The "CLARITY Act"—a piece of legislation concerning market structure—passed the House of Representatives but stalled in the Senate in September by a vote of 49 to 50. If it isn’t passed before the year ends, the legislative process will have to start from scratch when the new Congress convenes in January. In other words, what’s being voted on this Tuesday isn’t just about who holds which seat; it’s also about who will draft the next version of crypto regulations.

Regulatory Uncertainty: What Crypto Is Really Focused On

Many of us are inclined to view the election primarily through the lens of its immediate impact on prices, but the real story runs deeper. The direction of the incoming Congress will be the deciding factor for the pace and content of digital asset legislation. Consumer protection, illicit finance, and the scope of state versus federal authority—the very issues that caused the CLARITY Act to stall in September—will remain on the table in the new term. Regardless of which party wins, legislative negotiations will continue; the industry’s goal is to ensure that, whoever holds the pen, the resulting rules are "achievable" in terms of compliance. From this perspective, the election isn’t a matter of "which direction" things will go, but rather a variable affecting the timeline.

A Lesson from History: Post-Election Market Predictions Can Be Misleading

So, what will the election do to BTC and stocks? The honest answer is: no one knows—and the data doesn’t know, either. BTC’s price movement in the 30 days following the last three midterm elections has spanned a wide range—from -45% to +13%—meaning there is no clear, directional pattern. The same holds true for equities: historical averages show no significant difference between periods of single-party control versus a divided Congress. In my view, the key takeaway is this: an election doesn’t change the path of asset prices; rather, it changes the map upon which that path is charted. Ultimately, prices are still driven by inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and liquidity. Therefore, it is best to avoid binary narratives—such as "the election is over, so the market will skyrocket" or "the election is over, so everything is doomed."

A Calm Guide to Watching Election Night

For those of us sitting in front of our screens on Tuesday night, I suggest a practical framework: First, it may take hours—or, in some Senate races, even days—for the results to become fully clear; hasty interpretations are often incorrect. Second, initial reactions are rarely lasting; the market’s "evening reaction" often differs from the "reality of the following week." Third, the real focus should be on how legislative and economic policy signals take shape in the weeks after the election. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Elections are temporary; sound analysis is enduring. Which race do you think will be the most decisive on Tuesday night?

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