With the U.S. midterm elections approaching, BTC’s sharp drop is back in the spotlight. All data has been checked against Gate’s latest market data, with no errors tolerated.

Gate’s Latest Price Confirmed
Gate’s BTC/USDT spot display shows multiple quotes, including 80,515.2, 80,062.5, 80,086.0, 80,774, and 81,054.8. The 24-hour high is 81,965.5 and the low is 79,710.9. The latest Gate Square post shows the price has fallen to around $76,860, down nearly 4% in 24 hours, with an intraday low of $76,495 and an intraday decline of 3.5% to 4.5%. The psychological $80,000 threshold has been breached. November data previously showed BTC’s maximum monthly drawdown was 36.45%, with a monthly decline of 17.51%, the second-largest monthly drop of this cycle. It also closed below the 360-day moving average for three consecutive weeks and broke below the $90,000–$110,000 Trump bottom range.

Historical Patterns Around U.S. Midterm Elections
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3. Ash Crypto’s review of four midterm election cycles shows that BTC plunged around each election in 2010, 2014, 2018, and 2022. Ali Martinez calculated drawdowns of 72%, 65%, 52%, and 27%, narrowing with each cycle. Q4 returns were -16.7%, -42.2%, and -14.8%. Bottoms typically formed 13 to 71 days after Election Day: BTC was at $330.49 on Election Day, November 4, 2014, and fell 46.1% to $178.10 71 days later, on January 14; on Election Day, November 8, 2022, it was at $18,541.27 and fell 14.9% to $15,787.28 13 days later, on November 21.

However, CryptoQuant data shows that BTC rose 24.5%, 44.9%, and 92.3% in the 12 months after the elections, respectively. This suggests the midterm elections themselves are not the cause of the declines; rather, they coincide with liquidity contraction and the market’s own cycle. Polymarket data shows the current odds of Democrats winning the House are 93% and the Senate are 65. The market fears policy uncertainty will strengthen the dollar, pushing the negative correlation between BTC and the dollar to a historical high.

Trader Analysis: Why This Drop Has a Clear Structure
Gate Research notes that November trading volume fell to 1.6 trillion USDT, with sustained systemic selling pressure.
1. High-volume bearish candle near the highs: After BTC traded sideways around $91,000 for an extended period, a single large bearish candle broke through the 5-, 10-, and 30-hour moving averages, reaching a low of $86,317 and shifting the structure from sideways trading to a downtrend. 2. Long squeeze: Liquidations across the market exceeded 700 million USDT in November. Since October, BTC had fallen from above $103,000 to around $98,000. ETFs saw $113 million in outflows in a single day. On November 28, there were still net inflows of $71.4 million, but they could not support the market. 3. Signs of market manipulation: Gate data shows BTC fell 2.37% to $99,601.3 on November 14. In the early hours of November 24, from 00:00 to 06:00 UTC, it plunged from $86,500 to $84,200, then met resistance at $88,000, forming a typical pattern of a bull trap followed by a sell-off. Price action since December shows it fell from $79,000 to $74,000 before stabilizing in the $75,500–$76,800 range, indicating a planned, controlled pullback rather than a disorderly crash.
Logical Projection
Nine days before the midterm elections, BTC is around $80,148, with the market pricing in uncertainty ahead of time. Historical patterns show that liquidity is often tightest around Election Day. Market operators use this window to create panic and trigger successive long stop-losses, then accumulate at the bottom within 13–71 days. The current Gate price of $76,860 is already approaching the deep-water zone of this correction. If history repeats, a bottom may form within two weeks to two months after the election, followed by a recovery cycle lasting around 12 months.

From a trading perspective, $80,000 has become strong resistance, $76,400–$76,500 is short-term support, and $75,500–$76,800 is the zone to watch for stabilization. Only a high-volume move back above $81,965.5 would reverse the bearish structure; otherwise, the main strategy remains to short rallies.

#美国中期选举 #BTC大跌 #作手分析