Golden Finance | November 1 Morning Briefing

1️⃣ Market: BTC 77586 up 0.95%, while ETH 2258 up 0.98%. The 24-hour move is a low-volume recovery, with gains coming more slowly than declines, suggesting buyers have yet to step in
2️⃣ Sentiment: The Fear & Greed Index is at 30, remaining in the fear zone for two consecutive days. It was 51 a week ago and 74 a month ago—a sharp three-step decline in sentiment
3️⃣ Event: After a leading exchange was hacked for about $6.3 billion, it has replenished about 90% of the stolen assets. Reserve coverage for 10 major tokens has returned to 100%. Withdrawals are expected to resume in stages today, while a full proof of reserves will take another 40 to 50 hours
4️⃣ Macro: The Fed held rates steady in October, but two regional Fed presidents have turned hawkish in succession. One has a vote in December and explicitly said rates need to be raised “at least two more times.” Markets are pricing in about a 76% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December, with about 24% betting on a straight 50-basis-point hike
5️⃣ Next week: The U.S. midterm elections on November 3 and October nonfarm payrolls on November 6 will largely determine whether rates are raised in December
6️⃣ Strategy: MA120 remains the key dividing line. Treat any rebound before a sustained move above it as a recovery, not a reversal to chase. When withdrawals first resume, test with a small amount—don’t withdraw all your assets in the first batch